S&P;/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Futures

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Gohabsgo_IHB

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These futures are being sold here: <a href="http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/real-estate/residential/SandP-case-shiller-home-price-index_FO.html">CME GROUP</a>.



You can trade CSI futures on the following U.S. cities:

-Boston

-Los Angeles

-San Francisco

-Chicago

-Miami

-Washington, D.C

-Denver

-New York

-Las Vegas

-San Diego; and

-Composite index of all 10 cities



Here's a link to the <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html">S&P;/Case-Shiller Historical Home Price Index</a>. Here's additional <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf">Information</a> on this index.



Here you can find the current prices of the <a href="http://housingrdc.cme.com/index.html">Futures</a>



For Los Angeles (FYI - Los Angeles index includes the LA and Orange counties), the maximum has been 273.94 and is 198.59 in May 2008.

August 2008 is priced around 195 (28.8% from peak and 1.8% from May 2008)

November 2008 is around 180 (34.3% from peak and 9.4% from May 2008)

February 2009 is around 170 (37.9% from peak and 14.4% from May 2008)

May 2009 is around 160 (41.6% from peak and 19.4% from May 2008)

August 2009 doesn't have a reliable bid amount, so it's hard to quantify

November 2009 is around 157 (42.7% from peak and 20.1% from May 2008)

The following quarters don't seem to have enough activity to be reliable, but it doesn't look like it's expected to see anything below 150-155 and there doesn't seem to be any recovery before 2012 which is in line with a typical 6 year cycle.



It looks like the Composite-10 also settles somewhere in the low 150 which is a 33.7% decline from its peak of 226.29.
 
If the options were traded electronically and not restricted to trades via a broker with a seat at the CME, then I kid you not, I would have puts like a bear in heat on the LA index.
 
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