Resale homes vs new homes

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irvine_native_IHB

New member
There are a lot of posts about the new homes here, but none about the older resale home market. I am looking to buy an older (1980 or earlier) home in Irvine some day. These were the neighborhoods I grew up in and love. I prefer the spacious layout of the older neighborhoods vs the uncomfortably dense layout of the new neighborhoods. Also, even with the added cost of maintaining an older home, I find the older homes to be more affordable without the high 1.8% tax/mello roo and HOA of the new homes.





Is anyone paying attention to the resale home market in Irvine? It seems to be pretty stagnant right now. Many were delisted at the end of last year and most sit overpriced without reduction. How long can all these sellers endure the lack of sales?


I also am noticing that several short sales are popping up. How can this be? People underwater on an Irvine home? Impossible right? :)





I think that the reductions are going to increase drastically starting now. While there are a few short sales, most Irvine sellers are sitting on mountains of equity and can afford to reduce to get the house sold. Comps are pretty meaningless right now, as each home is selling for less than it's most recent comp. Any thoughts?
 
I mentioned in a post on the main site that I recently spoke with a realtor who said she closed 4 homes in December that all went off for 10% under asking. Just yesterday I stopped at an open house at 6 Lindberg because it was listed as a rental. The realtor said it was not for rent, and the owner had reduced the asking price. I checked the property records, and the owner is an FB from early 2006. His reduced asking price is still a breakeven transaction after sales costs: probably won't happen. From what I am seeing and hearing, every desperate FB is praying for a knife-catcher and the whole resale market is deteriorating fast. It will be interesting to see the desperation once March and April roll around and there is even more supply and no buyers.
 
<p>Sales are still very slow. The resale sellers haven't been visiting the new construction to witness firsthand that significant reductions have already begun. The longer they chose to remain oblivious, the worse the fall will be.</p>

<p>Last fall (the season), the sellers were patient enough that they kept their prices high and took them off the market temporarily or rented them out (of course for way less than the monthly carrying costs). The real estate agents all crowed about the reduction in inventory at the end of the year, but it was NOT from increased sales. Folks took a pause, hoping for a better day.</p>

<p>There will definitely be weak holders who run out of patience when the spring bounce is nothing but an inventory bounce, and say "eff this, I gotta stop the bleeding." They will lead the market down.</p>

<p>It is still relatively new (not the target home of the OP), but 68 Vermillion in Irvine looks like it fell out of escrow and someones will may have been broken. They are advertising that it is "reduced $70k," currently $610k. I didn't make it to the open house yesterday, but some now-nervous neighbors were still up around $640-50k. This is how it all begins...</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
Inventory for resale has come down tremendously in the last few months (from around 1200 in september to about 875 now). It should start to pick up soon.





I like some of the older homes in Irvine too (Turtle Rock in particular)..
 
I stopped going to open houses last summer. I just got sick and tired of the same horrible, Brady Bunch dark, dingy, yicky houses. I find them to be very depressing. When I walk into them I just see big dollar signs wherever I look - needs new flooring, new roof, new water heater, new landscape, and on and on and on.



Of course, I was only looking at houses that were listed just slightly above what I can afford - in other words, I was only looking at condos, townhouses, and SF houses in the under 650k range. In other words, the slums of Irvine.
 
<p>You are so right, irvinesinglemom. We are renting a Brady Bunch dark dingy yucky ranch house in Woodbridge. The yard is awesome- a very large backyard, surprisingly. But the inside- TERRIBLE. I have to put velcro on the kitchen cabinets to keep the cabinets from not opening. I see $$$$ when I think "If i bought this home- EVERYTHING would need to be gutted"- essentially a teardown. </p> <p>Our rental is around 2100 sq feet. Since there is no insulation, original windows (you get the picture)- can you believe my heating bill was over $200- and the heat is lowered during the day because we both work. I lived in the Midwest where it is very cold and had a much large homer and my heating bills were never this much. That's what worries me about these older homes- they are just so cheaply built. I like Turtle Rock, but I fear the same situation unless it's been totally rehabbed.</p>
 
Old homes can be a bargain, but you need to be careful and get a good home inspector.





My parents bought their first 3 bed townhouse/condo in Buena Park in 1989. The home was built in late 1960's but had really nice park in front, and elementry school w/larger park across the street with plenty of nice trees. We paid $120,000 for it in 1989 and sold it in 2003 for $270,000 in "as is" condition to the buyer.





Some of you might be wondering "why so low? Shouldn't the townhome be valued at $350k-400k at least?" Well, let me explain the problems. It was a unit in the center of a 5-unit building. That is, we had 2 neighbors to the right and 2 neighbors to the left. The building used asbestos for insulation. If you go into the attaic you'd see abestos everywhere. The whole building is also infested with termites and the outer-edge units (to far right/left) was so bad that you could stick your finger through some parts of the exterior wood.





There was a wooden patio with shade in front of our unit, in the common-use lawn area. Termites had eaten the wood to tbe point where they had to replace the whole thing.





The obvious solution was to get the whole place tented and fogged to kill those little buggers. Our association refused to pay for it and insisted that it's our own responsibility. The not so little old lady to the right refused to pay for it, saying that she's "almost dead anyway" and can care less. The couple who lived to the left were anti-insecticide/chemcial nuts and refused to have anything to do with those "harmful chemicals". They insisted that we use heat treatment instead. They wanted to bring in lots of propane burners and cook the whole structure at 170 degrees, at which point the other owners/tenants said "no friggin way, you're going to damage my <insert item>".





Fortunately, being in the middle, the termite damage to our unit was still very light. But after baging my head against the wall a few times over my neighbors, we decided that it was best if we unloaded the house and let someone else deal with it. So we sold the townhome "as-is" at below market value and told the buyer that they'd have to deal with the problems. We found a buyer who insisted that he'd flip the property soon anyway and can "spot treat" termite problem. Okay buddy, all yours, good luck. Last I checked he's still living there, prolly feeling smug at buying a property at well below market value.





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Now, there are some really good deals with older homes, you just need to be more careful with buying them. Older homes tend to be darker due to its design. Some can be fixed by installing tubed skylights or new/additional windows. Recessed lights, mirrors, light-colored carpet, paint, and decor can also brighten up the place. If the Kitchen cabnets look dated, you can sand it and re-paint, or even replace all the cabnet doors and knobs. In some cases you can knock out the ceiling, re-route some pipes/cables and have yoruself a nice tall ceiling (former attic space).





I just did some interior work with my buddy at his dad's house last year. We paid some $$ to have contractors come and rip out the old abestos insulation. Then we replaced the carpet with nice wooden floors, took out a wall between kichen/dining and the living room area, installed some recessed lights, installed new window blinds, and re-painted the wall in white. His father was so happy with the result that he went out and bought a new creamr-colored couch set, mirrored cabnets, and a new dining set. Now the living room to dining area looks very nice. Next item on list is the backyard (ugh).





if you're looking for more "room", there's 2 ways to get it. One is to expand physically, the other is to reduce the amount of crap in the room itself. Try tossing out as much as you can and go with minimalist style decor in simple white colors (can be bought cheaply at Ikea). Space your furniture apart and use smaller furniture pieces. Don't clutter stuff on top of tables. Get rid the old rear-projection or tube TV and the big entertainment rack, replace with a slim flat-panel TV from Costco with a small/low modern TV stand. Replace old ta;; brown bookshelves with short light-colored ones. It'd make your room look bigger, and moving a lot easier.
 
There absolutely is a range in quality in the older homes. From run down termite infested vacant rentals to very loved and tastefully upgraded homes. Obviously I will try to avoid the run down homes, unless it comes at a steal. We are currently renting a 1976 run down termite infested townhome in woodbridge. It needs a lot of work and I am glad that we just rent it, not own it. The entire tract is termite infested but the HOA is broke so they are doing nothing. I presume that they will eventually hit the owners with a special assessment to pay for repairs. I wont buy a 30 year old condo, only an SFH.





Right now, the crappy resale homes seem to list for similar amounts to the nicely maintained ones. I am hoping that in the next two years that the nice homes in Woodbridge or Turtle Rock come down to a price range that we can afford. I'd prefer Turtle Rock of course, due to the schools for my son (I went to them, they rock - at least they did), but the houses have a higher price point over Woodbridge.





I have a feeling that the new developments currently selling now will have an unusually high amount of foreclosures in the coming years.
 
<p>I noticed that termites seemed to be a problem around the "Loop". I often see the homes tented- and they are the townhomes on the loop. Does Turtle Rock have this problem?</p>

<p>I have 2 kids under 4 yrs old- what worries me about Woodbridge (at least my impression, but I've been living here for 6+ months in this home) is that there aren't many young kids. In fact- hardly any- not many at the parks either. I get the impression that a good portion of the residents are original homeowners- and they plan to stick around because their purchase prices/taxes are so low and it's ideal for retirement- that is the case from the people we are renting from now- they had a job transfer and are new retirement age but they have said they are definitely not selling. I never see kids outside and that is one of the sticking points with me actually buying a home in WB. I have talked with realtors- and there's some streets apprently on the South Lake there are some streets (Emerald) where there's supposedly lots of kids..</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p><em>irvine_native: "I have a feeling that the new developments currently selling now will have an unusually high amount of foreclosures in the coming years."</em></p>

<p>I think you are on the right track with that comment. You will see (if you haven't already seen the "measels" on the homes for sale map at ziprealty.com if you look around the Turtle Ridege area, for example) a lot more pressure on the home buyers (and flippers who are underwater) that will eventually lead to more foreclosures.</p>
 
Yeah, I'm expecting Woodbury and Quail Hill in particular to explode in a wave of foreclosures in the next 18 months, considering most of their homes were sold during the 2003-2006 run-up.
 
JoonB: The turtle rock tracts have termites also. The garden homes tract there was just tented and had the wood replaced. $12k assessment to the owners to cover this.





We take our son out to the playgrounds all the time here in Woodbridge. Our regular walk hits 4 playgrounds. We never see another kid. It is pretty strange. Then on the 4th of July parade there were tons of kids. Either they were imported for the parade, or they spend all their time inside playing video games during the rest of the year. Woodbridge is boomertopia right now. The original owners are reaching the ends of their lifetimes. The homes will be filled with new families eventually - it's a cycle, I guess. All of Irvine is hemorrhaging young kids, just look at the school stats. Young families can't afford to be here.





If you want an area with tons of young families and kids, you have to leave Irvine. Foothill ranch, Rancho Santa Margarita, and Aliso Viejo are the young family cities right now.
 
RSM is too far away for me - I don't want to do more than a 15-minute commute. Aliso is pushing it in terms of commute time for me as well. Foothill Ranch scares me - it and the rest of Lake Forest seem too much like Texas to me...if you don't belong to "The Church" then you are outnumbered and outcast. I don't want my kid growing up surrounded by people who tell him he's going to burn in hell because he doesn't worship in their mega-church.
 
My hubby and I looked at a lot of resales in Laguna Niguel - and at every single one, I thought....gotta rip out that carpet, gotta redo those cabinets, gotta repaint that bedroom, etc. After buying new once, it's really hard to buy a resale...especially if you're not into doing renovations - which I'm not. But I would go the resale route if I knew I'd take the time to redo the place before I moved in, etc.
 
Check out this <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pcu9bZ7fu2EACO88HAFzJdw">spreadsheet</a> of information on resale median prices by ZIP code in orange County from December 2006 via DataQuick. This is normally published each month in the LA Times...
 
You have a better chance spotting a "good" deal with new homes as those greedy sellers are telling one another to "hold the asking prices." I am a renter in a 1400 sq. ft. 20-year old POS townhouse in Irvine (Las Palmas) and the resales in this area are in the $600k+ range. Start looking in October/ November for year end clearance, though you have to put your ears to the ground to pace the trend. 2007 is probably not likely to be the bottom of the housing market. Don't be duped into listening to those "economists"/ "analysts" with self-serving interests who are so quick to calling the bottom of the housing bubble. IMHO, the bubble has not even started. Those overleveraged sellers are likely to buckle soon.
 
In our rented condo, the outside wood is so eaten that you could crush the 2x4 beams with your bare hands. We have to sweep the red/brown termite poop in our garage once a week. It is pretty easy to spot an infestation.
 
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