Mcdonna1980_IHB
New member
I nearly feel out of my seat this morning when I read the below story in the OC Register. It is really sad because the general public really does think we will bounce back to peak prices in a snap. I met with a client this afternoon whom really took Steve Thomas's predicitons to heart and wanted to buy now or be priced out forever. I hear this sentiment often from clients and I know they think they're informed. But I know they rely on the newspaper which has very limited analysis. I wish the Register would stop giving Steve Thomas free advertisement.
?Rapid appreciation? seen for O.C. homes in 2011
November 17th, 2008, 3:18 am ? 76 Comments ? posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo includes a bold prediction ?
?The past couple of years we have witnessed giant swings in the stock market, oil prices and housing. For the most part, the majority of consumers are trending to jump in unison. There will be more residential housing units that sell next year compared to this year, so the probability that we hit bottom in pricing next year is great. In 2010, we will most likely appreciate a bit, while many consumers wait to hear the news that the bottom was already reached. Remember, nobody is ringing a bell to indicate when we hit bottom; instead, economists and analysts will be able to inform the public at large that a bottom was reached many months later, after it occurs. In 2011, with all of the pent up demand and the realization that Orange County is undervalued, a wave of demand will be unleashed on the market and we will return to rapid appreciation.?
Thomas calculates a ?market time? benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. (Thomas notes a new, combined broker listing service now includes 600 listings ? 5% of supply ? previously not tabulated!) By Thomas? logic ?
It would take 5.18 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current buying pace vs. 5.19 months two weeks vs. 13.31 months a year ago vs. 7.13 two years ago.
Note that homes under a million bucks have a market time of 4.38 months vs. 20.88 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
?Rapid appreciation? seen for O.C. homes in 2011
November 17th, 2008, 3:18 am ? 76 Comments ? posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
The latest O.C. home inventory report from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo includes a bold prediction ?
?The past couple of years we have witnessed giant swings in the stock market, oil prices and housing. For the most part, the majority of consumers are trending to jump in unison. There will be more residential housing units that sell next year compared to this year, so the probability that we hit bottom in pricing next year is great. In 2010, we will most likely appreciate a bit, while many consumers wait to hear the news that the bottom was already reached. Remember, nobody is ringing a bell to indicate when we hit bottom; instead, economists and analysts will be able to inform the public at large that a bottom was reached many months later, after it occurs. In 2011, with all of the pent up demand and the realization that Orange County is undervalued, a wave of demand will be unleashed on the market and we will return to rapid appreciation.?
Thomas calculates a ?market time? benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. (Thomas notes a new, combined broker listing service now includes 600 listings ? 5% of supply ? previously not tabulated!) By Thomas? logic ?
It would take 5.18 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current buying pace vs. 5.19 months two weeks vs. 13.31 months a year ago vs. 7.13 two years ago.
Note that homes under a million bucks have a market time of 4.38 months vs. 20.88 months for homes listed for more than $1 million.
The members here have given me and others many sound and excellent advice. I have learned a lot more about not just the housing market, but other stuff too. ;-)
