Quail Hill SFRs still bubble-licious...

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irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
I drool over Vicara homes but I would settle for Chantilly (even Tapestry)... this Plan 2 Chantilly listed for $1.370m went into escrow after 22 days:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/121-Bottlebrush-92603/home/5892665

Apr 25, 2011 Pending (Backup Offers Accepted) -- -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Apr 04, 2011 Listed (Active) $1,370,000 -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Dec 31, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $968,500 -- Public Records
Click to expand...

This sold for $968k at the end of 2003. Even if it closes at $1.3m, that's still 34% higher than end of 03.

I remember on the IHB, all the bears were saying that these homes would go sub-$1mil... I wonder if they still think that is the case.
 
In the redfin link you provided it is unbelievable to see $/sq ft number in the chart
being  450-500/sq ft. if you see the listing of recent sales  and this home at 355/sq ft
the price should be about 1 mill. That kind of makes sense for the home to be around 2003
pricing. 

I agree quail hill seems like the place to be based on these numbers.

Also the 34% appreciation from 2003 price probably puts it at late 2004 price!!!! Those days
prices jumped 30-40 % in 6-9 months.

irvinehomeowner said:
I drool over Vicara homes but I would settle for Chantilly (even Tapestry)... this Plan 2 Chantilly listed for $1.370m went into escrow after 22 days:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/121-Bottlebrush-92603/home/5892665

Apr 25, 2011 Pending (Backup Offers Accepted) -- -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Apr 04, 2011 Listed (Active) $1,370,000 -- Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Dec 31, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $968,500 -- Public Records
Click to expand...

This sold for $968k at the end of 2003. Even if it closes at $1.3m, that's still 34% higher than end of 03.

I remember on the IHB, all the bears were saying that these homes would go sub-$1mil... I wonder if they still think that is the case.
Click to expand...
 
IHO, what do you think this should be worth?

You always talk about what other people thought of the market back in the day, curious on what you think this is "worth" (not what it will transact at per se).
 
Good question.

Ignoring some of the Irvine premium and basing it on other OC areas with similar elevations... considering these are tract homes, they should be less than $1mil. They should be back at 2003 pricing (and probably should have sold for less than that back then):

Olivos: $700k
Tapestry: $750k
Chantilly/Sienna: $850k to $1mil
Vicara: $1mil+

I kind of base this on 6-7 year cycles of past real estate bubbles, the 2000s bubble was protracted because of the ninja loans and should have peaked at around 03/04 prices, but it continued on up to 06. But even with that, most of the country has returned to 2003 or before... not Quail Hill.

Do I think they will get there? Seems to me if they haven't got there by now... they may not -- unless other places go back to mid 90s pricing.

Considering that Laguna Altura is pricing 2500+ sft homes starting at mid/high $900k, that actually beats out Olivos and Tapestry pricing which makes sense using that comparison. But comparing Cortona to Maricopa, the $200k difference seems outrageous (although you can look at Camellia and Cortile Portisol to see the difference from Olivos).

Edit: Portisol not Cortile.
 
Not sure if I fully answered edhne's question... what I hope where prices at QH would fall and where I realistically think they will fall are different.

I've always contended that QH SFRs are one of the most stubborn products in Irvine, which is why I bring it up all the time. I remember some conversation where someone said I could buy a Tapestry for $700k... I don't think anyone now would say the same thing.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Good question.

Ignoring some of the Irvine premium and basing it on other OC areas with similar elevations... considering these are tract homes, they should be less than $1mil. They should be back at 2003 pricing (and probably should have sold for less than that back then):

Olivos: $700k
Tapestry: $750k
Chantilly/Sienna: $850k to $1mil
Vicara: $1mil+
Click to expand...

If Chantilly was 1M, would you finally buy again? Or would you wait based on fear of further declines?
 
I've said this before but I not looking to spend $1mil on any home right now.

Maybe if Chantillys were $850k (because although the 20% DP difference may only be $30k, to get a loan to jumbo is $150k difference) but if that were the case, Tapestry would be at $750k and that is enough home for us (don't want to overbuy).

We've lived in 3 different size homes that last 3 years and determined that we can live in 1900sf-2400sf comfortably. The problem is no one builds 4-5br SFRs in that sq footage in Irvine anymore (save Las Ventanas, which is why they are an option for us).

Buying in QH, price declines isn't that big a fear for us... it's the affordability. We would plan to live there for long term (at least 7-10 years if not longer) so declines aren't an issue. If we bought in a non-Irvine area, that's where declines might be a concern because we may not want to stay there long term... thus why we haven't pulled the trigger although South County 3CWG homes are now approaching the $600k level.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I've said this before but I not looking to spend $1mil on any home right now.

Maybe if Chantillys were $850k (because although the 20% DP difference may only be $30k, to get a loan to jumbo is $150k difference) but if that were the case, Tapestry would be at $750k and that is enough home for us (don't want to overbuy).

We've lived in 3 different size homes that last 3 years and determined that we can live in 1900sf-2400sf comfortably. The problem is no one builds 4-5br SFRs in that sq footage in Irvine anymore (save Las Ventanas, which is why they are an option for us).

Buying in QH, price declines isn't that big a fear for us... it's the affordability. We would plan to live there for long term (at least 7-10 years if not longer) so declines aren't an issue. If we bought in a non-Irvine area, that's where declines might be a concern because we may not want to stay there long term... thus why we haven't pulled the trigger although South County 3CWG homes are now approaching the $600k level.
Click to expand...

great well thought out answer!

In the area of hypotheticals then, if you had wanted to spend 1.2M on your QH home, based on your 7 to 10 year outlook, would would you wait or pull the trigger because you simply got tired of waiting and simply gave up on the market self correcting in QH?
 
edhne (being QH owner) trying to gauge and determine if his property is valued at market value, based on "fundamentals"  :P

Edhne, if you are selling - I am sure you would look at comps in that zip first and value the property, instead of median incomes and what others think. As USC and other realtors say, its the buyer who will need be convinced of the sale price - others' opinion does not matter.
 
TustinRanchResident said:
edhne (being QH owner) trying to gauge and determine if his property is valued at market value, based on "fundamentals"  :P

Edhne, if you are selling - I am sure you would look at comps in that zip first and value the property, instead of median incomes and what others think. As USC and other realtors say, its the buyer who will need be convinced of the sale price - others' opinion does not matter.
Click to expand...

lol. yes first thing I did was check patrick.net. The fundamental value was 617k! I drool for that day...

 
Okay... let's say IndieDev gave me $1.2m to spend because he doesn't need it.

Now, you're asking me would I spend $1.2m now or wait due to corrections? The short answer is I'm not really waiting for corrections, I'm waiting for the right home.

That's the problem... inventory in resale is tight. I just went shopping on Redfin and this is the only SFR I could find for less than $1.2m:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/125-Weathervane-92603/home/5902520

Cons:
1. I prefer Tapestry over Olivos.
2. I'm concerned about the pool.
3. Has downstairs laundry.
4. No additional downstairs living space (den or 4th room).
5. No 3-car garage
Pros:
1. View lot.
2. Dual master closets.

The point is, whether it's $1.2m or $500k, we are really picky about features in our home so it would either have to be a really good price or come with some amazing offsetting feature (like free maid service and cook for life) for us to settle.

We've come close a few times... but either we weren't ready or the seller wasn't willing to deal.

If I get to finance $185k, I would definitely put Indie's $1.2m into this:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/111-Bottlebrush-92603/home/5901917

Only thing it's missing is dual master closets.
 
edhne said:
Curious, do you have a preference for QH over TRidge?
Click to expand...
Yeah... QH is closer to the 405 and you can zip up the 133 to hit the 5.

I like the year round school of Vista Verde but that's about it... and Redfin tells me SFRs start in the $1.55m in TR (although nice floorplans).
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Considering that Laguna Altura is pricing 2500+ sft homes starting at mid/high $900k, that actually beats out Olivos and Tapestry pricing which makes sense using that comparison. But comparing Cortona to Maricopa, the $200k difference seems outrageous (although you can look at Camellia and Cortile to see the difference from Olivos).
Click to expand...

You forget that this is the starting price without any of the upgrades you probably want. (eg. crown molding) Plus, by the time you add drainage, landscaping, hardscaping, etc..you are talking a pretty penny. Add, the higher mellaroos, HOAs compared to QH, then you got something more expensive than comparable QH. Plus, you'll be living in a bowl. QH has a higher altitude also and has that nice grass area where I love to walk and play with the kids.  Just my 2cents living in QH about a year now.
 
True, upgrades and other things can make LA more expensive, but that goes back to the whole inventory factor. Buying new is an easier experience as you have flexibility in what lot and elevation, you don't need to compete against FCBs and you know what the price is.

I prefer QH over LA too... but the Cortona Plan 2 is pretty nice compared to any Olivos or Tapestry model... and much cheaper than Chantilly, even after the additional costs.
 
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