Planning to offer to buy in Concordia West - Turtle Rock 41 Ascension

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now.buying_IHB

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Ipoplaya, et al



I have been looking at the Concordia West area for quite a while. More specifically, I am thinking of 41 Ascension. I like the area a lot but was hoping that 8 Charity would help drive the price lower. I am a relatively newbie to this site as I have only been reading this site as a guest over the last 2 months.



IPO - do you know what happened to 8 Charity? I do not see it on redfin anymore. I hope those two would drive down the asking for each of them.



Anyways, 41 Ascension is asking 1.445 million. 3k sq ft. I know - it is way to expensive right now. so I am thinking of offering much lower but eventually offer $1.3 million as the highest I am willing to go. Is that too high?



Any thoughts?
 
Looking from the 50K ft. view, 41 Ascension should be worth around around $1.3M based on the last sale price of $768K in Jan 2002 and the average rollback pricing across Irvine.



There are so few sales down there its pretty hard to say though... How big was 32 Trinity? Was there anything wrong with it? At a closing price of $1.17M, it was an early 2004 rollback. Given Trinity's price, I'd think Ascension would have to be worth less than $1.3M.
 
IPO,



My agent told me the size of 32 Trinity is 2650 sq ft or 441/sq ft on 12/31/07 sold for $1.17 million. 7000 lot size.



Does that help?



My wife and I like the area quite a bit. I know we could be early.....



For background, 41 Ascension originally asked at $1.495mm now it is at $1.45.
 
Also, I am also curious about how far do you guys think this place could fall to in the next few years. I just want to see how much $$ that I might be leaving on the table... versus getting a place that we really like.
 
Ok, so if you take the sale price of 32 Trinity, deflate by at least 5%, you would have Trinity's approxmiate value today. Call it $1.1 flat for simplicity. That would make Ascension worth $1.2-1.25M IMO today. You are talking about only 350 more sf and those houses back up to one another. Can't get a much better comparable besides a model match. The gap between 2650sf and 3000sf would be worth about $100-125K in my opinion...



I think Ascension, or a house like it, will head down into the $900s by the time we bottom out. Quail Hill and Turtle Ridge foreclosures will have a spillover effect. The REOs there will drive the per sf prices down to $350ish and that will probably mean Concordia West will be selling $325-350/sf.
 
[quote author="now.buying" date=1207482120]IPO,



For background, 41 Ascension originally asked at $1.495mm now it is at $1.45.</blockquote>


You need to make sure you forget about asking price. Focus on comps and market trend. Just because some slapped a huge WTF price on a place and then lowered it a couple times does not make it a bargain. If that was the case, I'd put a bubble peak price on my condo, then lower by $50K twice to lure a buyer, and sell it for $100K over market!
 
I totally agree that I need to ignore asking price - which is why I am trying to figure out a fair price. I gave you a history of the asking prices to let you know what has been happening - maybe the seller is getting nervous?



Using your $325 - $350 number that would imply the house should be worth $1 - $1.05 million eventually - yikes..
 
I'm leery of an area with few comps. 2 Ascension if they are aggressive and not market chasers, gets sold for sub $1.2M I think. My valuation puts it at around $1.15M based on both the April '96 and April '03 sales for that property. There isn't a ton of difference between 41 and 2 it would appear besides location... 41 is a nice looking house.
 
41 is much better than 2 ascension. The online pictures of 41 ascension doesn't do it much justice. Of course, I am not telling the seller's agent that! I do not want any competition.



2 ascension has literally close to zippo upgrades and is close to the gate.



I am confused on what I should do. Should I go buy a place in Serra which would be in your $325 - $350 area already - and so much nicer and bigger. However, it has mello roos, undeveloped, right next to the toll freeway, and so far north.



How much do you think it would cost to landscape a plan 2 type Serra in PS? $100k? If that is the case, 41 Ascension might be a better deal?
 
Can't comment on what you should do as that is a matter of individual taste. Personally, I'd much rather live and own in Concordia than in PS...



Plan 2 Serra is going to have around $8500 in MRs and bond. Using an interest rate of 7%, that is equivalent to almost $200K in mortgage. In other words, all other things being equal, Serra should be $200K cheaper given the financial implications of the MRs.



I think budgeting $50-75K for landscape on a Serra is probably a good idea. You can get more for your money today with the landscaping companies having much less work.
 
Thank you for the help. I am trying to figure out how much 8 Charity is getting sold for... that my help me lower 41 Ascension... or it might not since another concordia west supply is now eliminated.
 
<em>41 Ascension should be worth around around $1.3M based on the last sale price of $768K in Jan 2002 and the average rollback pricing across Irvine</em>



WTF? That's a ridiculous price increase in less than 6 years. This thing Might be worth 1 MIL.
 
I was applying Case-Shiller valuatoin methodology maestro. From Jan 2002 to peak, prices rose in general by 123%, so 41 Ascension at peak would have gone for $1.6-1.7M. The $1.3M I estimated is based on a 20-25% reduction from peak pricing... From a personal perspective, I pretty much agree with you though. Comps don't support our outlook though. A smaller home right behind this house sold for almost $1.2M just a few months ago. No way market is $1M today.
 
28 Trinity is scheduled for auction on 4/17. Doesn't appear to be as a result of a lender NOD though. The NTS default amount is only $7400 and it was filed by the Judge Law Firm. My HOA used Judge to do liens on delinquent HOA payments... They are paid up on their property taxes too.
 
Does this mean that the company hasn't paid its HOA? Wow. it would be nice to go and get this place for $7k. However, I figured that the bank will be at the auction to defend their mortgage. If you buy this at an auction do you still on the hook for the mortgage?
 
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