Original Quail Hill home prices?

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irvine_home_owner_IHB

irvine_home_owner_IHB

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Does anyone (like graphrix) have the original prices for the higher end homes in Quail Hill in 2003?



I actually toured it when they first opened by I didn't tour the higher priced homes at the time because they were beyond my price range. From what I can guess it looks like:



Tapestry (2500-3000sf): $800-900k

Chantilly (2600-3400sf): $900-1mil

Sienna (3000-4000sf): $1mil-1.3mil

Vicara (3100-4800sf): $1.5mil-1.7mil



At the peak (2006) they looked like:



Tapestry: $1.2-1.4

Chantilly: $1.3-1.5

Sienna: $1.4-1.8

Vicara: $1.7-2.0



So if we apply the 40% drop, are prices for these homes really going to be:



Tapestry: $700k

Chantilly: $800k

Sienna: $900k

Vicara: $1.2mil



This seems low and high at the same time. What I mean is they still seem priced high per square foot but will they go that far below original sales prices?
 
If you check recent home prices in Quail Hill, they really haven't dropped. 40% is kinda lot. I think it is more 10% from the peak.
 
[quote author="frank69m" date=1229418249]If you check recent home prices in Quail Hill, they really haven't dropped. 40% is kinda lot. I think it is more 10% from the peak.</blockquote>
I'd say it's anywhere from 15-25% off the peak, depending on if you are taking about the attached condos or SFRs.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1229420420][quote author="frank69m" date=1229418249]If you check recent home prices in Quail Hill, they really haven't dropped. 40% is kinda lot. I think it is more 10% from the peak.</blockquote>
I'd say it's anywhere from 15-25% off the peak, depending on if you are taking about the attached condos or SFRs.</blockquote>


I think you are mostly right on SC. The smaller places, attached/detached condos, have fallen 20-25% while the bigger places are going for 15-20% off peak.
 
The reason why i said around 10-15% is because if you look up there now. You only see 1.2 to 1.4 million as the cheapest so that ain't much of a decline for tapestry
 
frank is mostly right... although I think some Tapestry homes were listing for 1.6 at the peak (I was too lazy to look).



Currently some are going for 1.2 to 1.4 but I think they move faster at 1.2.



And this thread was for the higher end homes... not the smaller Linden models or the condos/townhomes.
 
I'm bumping this because I think this is a good example of pocket areas in Irvine that are more immune to price drops.



IR recently profiled a Vicara model that looks like it's in distress but do you think it will go as low as $1.2m?



A Sienna model on Retreat went for $1.188 in a short sale (I think) but that is one of the anamolies.



Can Tapestry models that sold for about $900k brand new in '04 really go for $700k sometime in the next 4 years? I'll probably still be renting by that time... but if that happens... I'll go back to being an IHO.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1234579397]I'm bumping this because I think this is a good example of pocket areas in Irvine that are more immune to price drops.



IR recently profiled a Vicara model that looks like it's in distress but do you think it will go as low as $1.2m?



A Sienna model on Retreat went for $1.188 in a short sale (I think) but that is one of the anamolies.



Can Tapestry models that sold for about $900k brand new in '04 really go for $700k sometime in the next 4 years? I'll probably still be renting by that time... but if that happens... I'll go back to being an IHO.</blockquote>


If your heart is set in QH then I would recommend Stan Pac or Richmond American but avoid Fieldstone's Tapestry. Fieldstone is not known for aesthetic and creative floor plans. It recycles plans from the 80's and by adding some shutters was its method of updating.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1234580180]If your heart is set in QH then I would recommend Stan Pac or Richmond American but avoid Fieldstone's Tapestry. Fieldstone is not known for aesthetic and creative floor plans. It recycles plans from the 80's and by adding some shutters was its method of updating.</blockquote>
This place would suck so hard without BK's extensive knowledge.



I'm not really fond of Tapestry's design either, but you know me and my preference of functionality over form. I really like the QH area, and if Tapestry is the cheapest home with the space I need... I'll take it.



But... if Chantilly or Sienna drop close enough where I can make a stretch... I'm there. At that point, though, I would have to examine what that stretch would be and if continuing to rent would be more cost efficient.



I know frank69m considers renting "throwing money away"... I used to think the same way... but when you break everything down... it's just as bad as giving all that interest to the bank.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1234580180][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1234579397]I'm bumping this because I think this is a good example of pocket areas in Irvine that are more immune to price drops.



IR recently profiled a Vicara model that looks like it's in distress but do you think it will go as low as $1.2m?



A Sienna model on Retreat went for $1.188 in a short sale (I think) but that is one of the anamolies.



Can Tapestry models that sold for about $900k brand new in '04 really go for $700k sometime in the next 4 years? I'll probably still be renting by that time... but if that happens... I'll go back to being an IHO.</blockquote>


If your heart is set in QH then I would recommend Stan Pac or Richmond American but avoid Fieldstone's Tapestry. Fieldstone is not known for aesthetic and creative floor plans. It recycles plans from the 80's and by adding some shutters was its method of updating.</blockquote>


Bk, I remember in the past you've said Richmond America is not reliable due to too many ups and downs with management turn-over. Do you feel their QH projects are mostly reliable enough? Thank you.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1234581527]I know frank69m considers renting "throwing money away"... I used to think the same way... but when you break everything down... it's just as bad as giving all that interest to the bank.</blockquote>


I can rationalize the interest in lieu of rent payments. The certainty of large principal loss in the near-intermediate term keeps me out of a CA home right now. Rent is a known quantity. Covered vs. naked options.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1229438812]frank is mostly right... although I think some Tapestry homes were listing for 1.6 at the peak (I was too lazy to look).



Currently some are going for 1.2 to 1.4 but I think they move faster at 1.2.



And this thread was for the higher end homes... not the smaller Linden models or the condos/townhomes.</blockquote>


110 Ambiance in Sienna just went into escrow at $1.299m on Feb 11, according to IPO Playa's website. It couldn't have been on the market for more than a few days. (And interestingly, it sold on July 13, 2007 for $1.435m. Assuming a 6% commission and a sale at the full $1.299m, that will be a $214k loss in just a year and a half. Ouch!)



But why would anyone buy in Tapestry for $1.1-$1.2m if they can buy Sienna for just a bit more?
 
Yeah... Ambiance is taking backup offers... I predict the contract is like $1.25m... it's low either way and probably why it was only listed of a few days.



Hopefully that pushes Tapestry down to the $1m level... although there are Olivos plans listed at 1.4ish... amazing.
 
[quote author="GavriloPrincip" date=1234588436][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1229438812]frank is mostly right... although I think some Tapestry homes were listing for 1.6 at the peak (I was too lazy to look).



Currently some are going for 1.2 to 1.4 but I think they move faster at 1.2.



And this thread was for the higher end homes... not the smaller Linden models or the condos/townhomes.</blockquote>


110 Ambiance in Sienna just went into escrow at $1.299m on Feb 11, according to IPO Playa's website. It couldn't have been on the market for more than a few days. (And interestingly, it sold on July 13, 2007 for $1.435m. Assuming a 6% commission and a sale at the full $1.299m, that will be a $214k loss in just a year and a half. Ouch!)



But why would anyone buy in Tapestry for $1.1-$1.2m if they can buy Sienna for just a bit more?</blockquote>


some tapestries were listed at 1.6m at the peak, but no one bought them at that price! in fact i don't even think any transacted at 1.5m, but could be wrong...



re "why would anyone buy in Tapestry for $1.1-$1.2m if they can buy Sienna ...", i mostly agree with GP because siennas 2/3 are much bigger and cost a lot more. sienna 1s are much closer but...

1- with rare exceptions, siennas don't have views since they're built on level land. the ones that have view, they face those high tower electric lines close to you. half of tapestries have the view. methinks this is the biggest reason.

2- if the price difference is 100k, a 30-yr loan at 7.5% would cost $700/mth more. include the extra 1.5% from taxes means difference of $10k/yr.

3- sienna 1s are about the same size as tapestry 3, but tapestry 3s usually have 5 bedrooms with 4.5 baths, vs probably 4 bedrooms with 3.5 baths in sienna 1s. true that everything is a tad smaller in tapestry 3, but it's nice to have that 5th bedroom.

4- the aforementioned supply shortage in qh means you could wait half a year and not see the floorplan you like at a reasonable asking price.
 
141 Tapestry 1,299,000 3040 16

137 Weathervane 1,235,000 2900 21

132 Treehouse 1,375,000 3100 1



All 3 of those are Tapestry 2/3 models.



104 Symphony, a Sienna Plan 1/A is going for 1,299,000 (~3500sft) but has been listed for 286 days.



Why are those Tapestry's priced so high... only 141 and 137 have view lots and 132 is priced higher.



Argh... someone stop the Kool-Aid flow!!!!
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1229398437]Does anyone (like graphrix) have the original prices for the higher end homes in Quail Hill in 2003?



I actually toured it when they first opened by I didn't tour the higher priced homes at the time because they were beyond my price range. From what I can guess it looks like:



Tapestry (2500-3000sf): $800-900k

Chantilly (2600-3400sf): $900-1mil

Sienna (3000-4000sf): $1mil-1.3mil

Vicara (3100-4800sf): $1.5mil-1.7mil



At the peak (2006) they looked like:



Tapestry: $1.2-1.4

Chantilly: $1.3-1.5

Sienna: $1.4-1.8

Vicara: $1.7-2.0



So if we apply the 40% drop, are prices for these homes really going to be:



Tapestry: $700k

Chantilly: $800k

Sienna: $900k

Vicara: $1.2mil



This seems low and high at the same time. What I mean is they still seem priced high per square foot but will they go that far below original sales prices?</blockquote>


These "original price esimates" are a LONG WAY OFF!!! Here are far more accurate figures (these are late 2003 to 2004):



Tapestry $700k

Chantilly $850K

Sienna $900K

Vicara $1.1k



These were the typical prices for the smallest models in those tracks, available during the opening phases.



Really shows how insane prices got in the years from 2003-2006.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1237261495][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1229398437]Does anyone (like graphrix) have the original prices for the higher end homes in Quail Hill in 2003?



I actually toured it when they first opened by I didn't tour the higher priced homes at the time because they were beyond my price range. From what I can guess it looks like:



Tapestry (2500-3000sf): $800-900k

Chantilly (2600-3400sf): $900-1mil

Sienna (3000-4000sf): $1mil-1.3mil

Vicara (3100-4800sf): $1.5mil-1.7mil



At the peak (2006) they looked like:



Tapestry: $1.2-1.4

Chantilly: $1.3-1.5

Sienna: $1.4-1.8

Vicara: $1.7-2.0



So if we apply the 40% drop, are prices for these homes really going to be:



Tapestry: $700k

Chantilly: $800k

Sienna: $900k

Vicara: $1.2mil



This seems low and high at the same time. What I mean is they still seem priced high per square foot but will they go that far below original sales prices?</blockquote>


These "original price esimates" are a LONG WAY OFF!!! Here are far more accurate figures (these are late 2003 to 2004):



Tapestry $700k

Chantilly $850K

Sienna $900K

Vicara $1.1k



These were the typical prices for the smallest models in those tracks, available during the opening phases.



Really shows how insane prices got in the years from 2003-2006.</blockquote>
I guess my pricing was based on the later phases because those estimates were pulled from RedFin MLS history from 03/04 (however not all new homes sales are recorded in RedFin so those could be quick flips).



It's interesting because your figures almost mirror the 40% off-peak pricing I posted which means they could go that low since returning to original basis easier than going underwater.



I'll take a Chantilly for $850k.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1237257699]141 Tapestry 1,299,000 3040 16

137 Weathervane 1,235,000 2900 21

132 Treehouse 1,375,000 3100 1



All 3 of those are Tapestry 2/3 models.



104 Symphony, a Sienna Plan 1/A is going for 1,299,000 (~3500sft) but has been listed for 286 days.



Why are those Tapestry's priced so high... only 141 and 137 have view lots and 132 is priced higher.



Argh... someone stop the Kool-Aid flow!!!!</blockquote>






I'm still waiting for more bankrupcies in QH, Oak Creek and Portola :-).....Prices can substain this high.
 
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