Ok to Buy in Turtle Ridge?

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Potential Buyer_IHB

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<p>Some of the postings make it sound like Turtle Ridge is currently a frightening place to invest. Is it plummeting worse than other areas of Irvine or OC? Is $600 per sq ft a relatively safe buy for the upper-end homes? Have most of the flippers been flushed out of the neighborhood yet? </p>
 
No. . . the bottom is still far away (my call is end of 2008 beginning of 2009). The next big thing now is all those 2-year ARMs coming up for readjustment at the end of this year and beginning of the next. People are freaking out now and the buyers have no urgency to buy. It's reverse of what happened two years ago.





Beside, what's your hurry? If a house does not appreciate, it's the same as renting.
 
<p>Thanks IrvineCommuter. I'm an urgent buyer in a job relo situation, and prefer to own a home. I'm trying to figure out how best to buy in Turtle Ridge or Newport Coast and weather this real estate storm. Ugh. Hopefully if I buy a very nice home in the mid $500 per sq ft, I will be "relative" safe. </p>
 
I think it depends on your goals. If you are planning to live in the house for 6 to 8 years, you're relatively safe. But if you are going to leave the area or the house in 3 years or so, I think you'll be going through a lot of unnecessary headaches.





Trust me, my wife and I have been looking for 3 to 4 years now and are so sick of moving from apartment to apartment. But it just does not make economic sense to buy right now. House will not appreciate for at 2 to 3 years while you tie up all your liquid assets. Take the excess money and put in a 6-month CD at 5.5%. Ride out the waves for a couple years and then you'll find yourself in an even better buying position.





If you want to live in a house, there are plenty of rentals in the market that are fairly affordable. Apartments in Irvine are really nice (thanks to the IC).
 
All very, very, very good points. Friggin scary time to buy, and letting our chunk of equity earn 5.5% may totally tip the analysis scales toward renting. I'm just trying to gauge "how scary" it is to buy in Turtle Ridge right now. I realize that's very hard to gauge . . .
 
It is hard to gauge. . . My wife and I have do this a thousand times and still want to buy a house.





Where are you coming from? Have you lived in the O.C. before?
 
<p>Yep, lived in OC most of my life. But we have lived in NorCal (Bay Area) for the past three years. We've been feeling brilliant about renting and sitting on the sidelines, but really want to get back to homeownership now, especially since we love OC. But that doesn't mean the homes we are looking at are "dream" homes. We almost certainly will move/upgrade in 2-5 years. I realize that weighs heavily in your rent vs. own analysis (and is why I'm trying to figure out how safe it is in Turtle Ridge). </p>
 
I am a bay area guy myself (east bay) and moved down to Irvine about 3 years ago. The analysis may be a little different for you guys since it looks like you're in a better position than we are (high credit, high earning potential, but no cash!!!!) Turtle Ridge is a good community and I think buying is fine if you can find a place that you can afford (i.e. not overextend) and would be okay about staying in in case the housing market stays bad. The problem for us is that we cannot find such a place for us to move into.





I am fairly conservative when it comes to money but I believe that it's just not the right time. My favorite investment quote (from the much maligned Jim Cramer) is "Pig get rich, hogs get slaughtered."
 
<p>Turtle Ridge is a good place to buy, just not right now. I'd wait for it to hits about 400-450 per sq ft., if you can wait that long. I'm doing exactly what was stated here. Every month for the last 2 years I've bought a 4-6 month cd and have started a CD ladder. So far the money being saved as well as the intersted eared will put us in a position to buy a house outright. Anyways good luck and don't work too hard.</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
It keeps on occuring to me that the more folks we talk out of buying, the less the relative price decline will be and the more competition there will be later for housing. Maybe we shouldn't be telling folks the truth. Maybe we should be more like some re agents and tell folks this is a great time to buy. You can afford it. The bank wouldn't give you the loan if you couldn't afford it or if they thought they might lose money. The bottom is in. If you don't buy now, you will priced out of the market forever. You can't time the market. Those folks waiting on the sidelines for prices to fall will still be waiting five years from now. Sales have slowed down, but prices are still holding steady or even rising. Median home prices are rising. You better buy now. Renting is throwing your money away.
 
Sometimes when I come late to a thread like this, I feel like the big bad bear coming to ruin the picnic...





Here goes...





Don't buy now. Read through our posts on <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/tag/turtle-ridge">Turtle Ridge</a>. You will see that prices are dropping there. In fact, Turtle Ridge will probably be decimated by the coming price drop because it is so ridiculously overpriced.





There is a natural "flight to quality" when a bear market sets in. Your instinct to go buy in a better neighborhood is a natural one. It only means you will wait a little longer before the market collapse reaches you -- but it will reach you. There are no places that will be immune: there wasn't last time, and there won't be this time. No, it is not different this time, other than it is probably going to be worse.





If you need more convincing, I suggest you read the <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/analysis/">analysis posts</a> on the main blog. They lay out the case for a market decline in great detail.
 
<p>Go check out 30 Crimson Rose for sale since last year at $1.9mil. You can maybe pick it up tomorrow at the foreclosure auction for around $1.1mil. I wonder how the sellers of 28, 35, 37, 46 and 47 will feel about that since 46 is priced at $1.7mil and 35 dreams up a $2.5mil price? Of course it will be interesting to see what price the bank wants for 41 Rose Trellis when they put it on the market. They didn't have an offer of $1.5mil at the auction and since it is approaching a year that 32 Rose Trellis has been for sale for $1.5mil they better just eat it and price it at $1.2mil. Of course that would really piss of the sellers of 21, 27 and 35 Rose Trellis and their $2mil price tag.</p>
 
Graphrix hits the issue right on the head! There is "something" going on in Turtle Ridge, and the street Crimson Rose is a stellar example. Thanks for confirming my concerns. Driving the street gave me the willies. Having said that, it seem that Turtle Ridge has already been hit pretty hard, so if I can get a house for a tad over $500 PSF, I suspect that would be "relatively" safe . . .
 
<p>hi potential buyer - I feel your pain! Similar situation - we just relocated here for job - probably not here forever - want to own a home but a bit scared to risk my hard earned equity on something that could totally tank! Good luck with your decision - its a hard one! We are renting at the moment but talking about the buy vs rent decision ad naseum (sp!)</p>
 
Potential Buyer,





Those prices can still go a lot lower than $500 SF. It isn't a matter of how far they have fallen, it is a matter of how far down is the rental breakeven. Find a rental unit there and multiply the rent times 160. That will give you a price to work with. Divide that by the number of square feet, and you will get a good idea where the bottom will form.
 
IHB should adopt Crimson Rose as a housing bubble poster child. Right now the street features a foreclosure, a rollback and a knife catcher all within 50 yards of each other. And Crimson is the color of flowing blood...imagine the catchy headlines and horror-movie photos Irvine Renter would come up with if he featured the properties on the blog.





30 Crimson Rose: An agent told me she had presented an offer from a ready buyer for 30 Crimson Rose, but it would have been a short sale. She said the seller rejected the offer because he had decided to just stay in the house until it was foreclosed. 30 Crimson Rose is 3400 square feet, 4 bed, 4 bath, but no view. It will be the neighborhood comp killer when the bank puts it back on the market after today's foreclosure auction, where the opening bid is just over $1 million.





Across the street, 37 Crimson Rose is for sale for $1.969 million. 3 bed, 3.5 bath and only 2900 square feet. Here's the interesting thing: according to Zillow, the tax assessed value is $1.860 million. Assuming that is what the seller paid for the house in 2005 and a 6% commission, he will lose $10,000 on the sale in the unlikely event that he gets his asking price. Anything under the asking price and the Crimson starts to flow. What will happen if the bank puts the much larger 30 Crimson Rose back on the market for $1.3 million. Will the seller stick to his wishing price on the theory that the view is worth several hundred thousand dollars in value?





Finally, we have the knife catcher who closed 5 bed, 6 bath, 3500 square foot 31 Crimson Rose on June 15, 2007 for $2.275 million. Ouch.





Consistent with our new motto, "<em>chronicling the seventh circle of real estate Hell since September 2006," how about a slogan contest: </em> "<em>Crimson Rose....a great place to __________________________</em>"
 
30 Crimson Rose was sold at the Trustee's Sale today for $1.4 million. Did the second TD holder bid up the price? The notice of sale on Fidelity ASAP's website does not say it was sold "Back to Beneficiary" as it usually does when the beneficiary buys the property. Anyone know what happened?
 
Wednesday


8/1/2007 2:00:00 PM











<strong>Address:</strong>

<a title="Get Google Map" target="_blank" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=30+Crimson+Rose,+Irvine,+CA+92603">30 Crimson Rose</a>


<a target="_blank" href="http://maps.yahoo.com/beta/#maxp=search&q1=30+Crimson+Rose,+Irvine+CA,+92603"><img alt="Get Yahoo! Map" src="http://www.fidelityasap.com/i/icon_yahoo.gif" /></a>





<strong>City:</strong>

Irvine





<strong>State:</strong>

CA





<strong>Zip:</strong>

92603





<strong>County:</strong>

Orange





<strong>APN:</strong>

478-381-60





















<strong>Sale Status:</strong>

Sold on 08/01/2007





<strong>TS Number:</strong>

0714392





<strong>Notice of Sale Amt:</strong>

$1,079,955.49





<strong>Opening Bid Amt:</strong>

$1,086,274.46





<strong>Sold Amt:</strong>

$1,400,000.00





<strong>Sale Location:</strong>

<a title="Get Google Map" target="_blank" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&q=700+Civic+Center+Drive+West,+Santa Ana,+CA+92701">At the North front entrance to the County Courthouse, 700 Civic Center Drive West, Santa Ana, CA.</a>


<a target="_blank" href="http://maps.yahoo.com/beta/#maxp=search&q1=700+Civic+Center+Drive+West,+Santa Ana+CA+92701"><img alt="Get Yahoo! Map" src="http://www.fidelityasap.com/i/icon_yahoo.gif" /></a>





<strong>Trustee:</strong>

Recon Trust Company N.A.





<strong>Trustee Phone#:</strong>

(800)281-8219














 
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