november interest rates... any guesses?

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myfirsthome_IHB

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anyone want to take a stab at where interest rates will be in november?





i'm going to sign for a new place tomorrow and am curious to know what you guys think november rates will look like. i'm quoted at 6% for my 1st right now, but am curious to know what i might get when they lock my rate in mid november.





thanks!
 
<p>First,</p>

<p>Would you care to share your mortgage terms with us ? Such as, how much/what percentage are you putting down....how many points are you paying, etc. ? Is it a jumbo or under 417K ? The Yield Spread Premium (if one).</p>

<p>Don't forget to demand a "no pre-payment penalty" clause in WRITING. </p>

<p>My guess for late November: Conforming 6.25 %, Jumbo 7% .....(with 0 points) </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Don't sign up until you vet the purchase price with the California blogsters.</p>

<p>I say, whatever you bid, reduce it by 10%. At least..</p>
 
Mino, you can look at historical data to come up with a reasonable prediction for the weather. Interest rates in the current environment? It's a brave new world.
 
<p>Umm, no EvaL.</p>

<p>The weather is the hardest thing to predict. Chaos theory comes from attempts at weather prediction. It is far easier to chart the movement a thousand years from now of distant galaxies.</p>

<p>Which is not to say it isn't getting better. Hurricane prediction 5 days out is now equal to hurricane prediction 3 days out a few years ago.</p>

<p>You may be confusing climate from weather. And with another hundred years of data and study as hard as what we are doing now, we may be able to go out a couple of weeks. But no time soon.</p>

<p>Even if the weather guys had the equations--and they don't--they don't have sufficient density of weather instruments to properly do their thing. And of course the density of weather info is greater around Cape Canaveral than most any place else. Still with all these very smart concerned people focusing attention on the weather, and all the instuments, trust me they still have big fights over whether it is likely to be ok to launch the shuttle or not, or should they roll it out, or should they fuel it up (very expensive to fuel and then drain).</p>

<p>And these guys have more smarts in their little fingers than the biggest baddest banker.</p>
 
Umm, don't want to beat you about the head, but without statistical analysis you don't know whether what you got was a lucky guess or not. Not that I am capable of doing any of that, I have just absorbed some stuff by osmosis.
 
I think we're talking past each other and/or using differing definitions. My only point is that with the historical weather record, you could figure out the odds of rain, etc. on a particular day. <em>**Waives white flag**</em>
 
<p>Mumble, mumble, sorry, got carried away. Mumble, mumble.</p>

<p>I used to read trashy sci fi novels before i discovered The Great Blog.</p>
 
Liz - Don't know if you know, but <a href="http://www.neilgaiman.com/journal/">Neil Gaiman</a> has a blog - not that I'm trying to point you away from IHB.
 
<p>Gaiman is fantasy.</p>

<p>Religious fantasy. Of course, one could say. . . well, never mind.</p>

<p>Actually nobody writes real sci fi anymore; i.e. stuff based on science.</p>

<p>I need to get hooked on a different blog like a need a hole in the head.</p>
 
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