Next industries/companies to short or buy puts

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
A

almon_IHB

New member
I understand this is not an investment column, but nothing wrong with exercising your brain while waiting for the RE market to gain back its senses...





Like most people, I missed the New Century gold rush and wished I hadn't. So what do others think are the next subsector or companies to tank? Let's keep the horizon to the next 1-3 months...





My two cents:


High end home decorators -> example: Great Indoor


High end luxury goods -> example: Tiffany (umm...then again, probably 6-9 months horizon)





If we do this right, we will all have a little more as down payment in a few months...
 
<p>The subprime market probably will go down more (not New Century, they're delisted now). Countrywide is down 30%, but keeping in mind NEW and NFI lost 90% of their value there could be more downside.</p>

<p>There is talk that the subprime woes will extend to non-subprime as well.</p>

<p>If the housing slowdown plunges the economy in recession, you won't need to be too picky on which stocks to short anyway...</p>
 
<p>I think we have better luck going to Las Vegas. I think the subprime mess is a conspiracy or a big old scam. After said and done, the lost money will be recouped, and more. I look around me, homes in OC are quitely selling well with little sign of distress. If interest stay same or lower, then the alt-A and prime market will be OK.</p>

<p>I noticed many us on this forum wish there is a housing crash for our sake. Soon, we will be too itchy to buy at whatever price.</p>
 
<p>These are not recommendations but as Cramer would say do your homework. COF, DB, BSC, AHM, HD, any other suppliers of materials or furniture suppliers. Look at 10-Qs and 10-Ks and look for percentage of subprime business increasing or loans held for sale increasing. Look for debt increasing and most importantly check out this before you short CFC <a href="http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/2007/03/banking-stocks-someone-asked-me-to-take.html">http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/2007/03/banking-stocks-someone-asked-me-to-take.html</a></p>

<p>IrvineMom - Do you really think that we will be itching to buy at any price? Some have waited a long time and we have the patience to stick it out. I want to buy an investment property but prices are so out of wack I would make more money by stuffing it under my mattress. Prices will continue to go down some more and it takes several years to recover from that when you add inflation. Maybe where you live homes are selling well but for most of OC they are not. Of the 13333 listings on Ziprealty (by the way that is a 6% increase in a week) 4670 have reduced their price that is 35% of the homes on the market. The subprime mess is very real and a lot of money is going to be lost as well as jobs. It may seem like a scam because it has happened in such a rapid fashion but there will be more of mess to come. Do you own your home?</p>
 
Graphix - I am looking to buy in the $1.5M range. I have been waiting for prices to drop and still waiting years after years. I would love to own in Newport Coast, but it's just a dream. I guess I was just talking to myself.
 
IrvineMom - I have seen an increase in NODs in Newport Coast and a few foreclosures. Sit tight relax and wait to see the prices come down. I know it is frustrating but go to the website above, Chris just bought a place in NC for $700k off the original asking price and he thinks prices will still come down a bit. High end properties are not immune to a correction as they suffered in the 90s too. When Newport Coast was first being built in the 90s they couldn't give the homes away. Once they slashed prices the buyers started camping out for them. Also I checked out ziprealty and found this one MLS# U7000024. I am not sure what you are looking for but it has been on the market for a while now. Looks pretty nice to me.
 
hey graphrix,





i like your line of thinking re furniture suppliers.





here's one that's interesting: FIS. it supplies "technology solution, processing services ..." to the financial and RE industries. the report i read said its exposure to subprime is not high, but it got me thinking: do most of these subprime lenders that are on the brink use the same IT software or data warehouses. you just know some of them are not going to pay their IT vendors when push comes to shove...





does anyone know who New Century uses?





THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND I AM NOT STARTING AN INVESTMENT GOSSIP COLUMN!! PLEASE DON'T USE THIS AS A RUMOR MILL FOR PENNY STOCKS!!!
 
<p>almon - You are on the right track. FIS is also involved with foreclosures <a href="http://www.fidelityasap.com/default.aspx">http://www.fidelityasap.com/default.aspx</a> in which business is increasing. The P/E ratio is high and looks like they have a lot of debt. I will look into it more later but since they get paid from foreclosures I may look to buy this one. More can be found here <a href="http://www.fidelityinfoservices.com/fnfis/">http://www.fidelityinfoservices.com/fnfis/</a> </p>

<p>I also think CFC could see a short squeeze and may look to buy some calls. I was late on the furniture companies so be careful but there could be more profit in the short side. Look at the loans held for sale at AHM. Just got this one from CNBC's fast money BC is a luxury item company. I am still hesitant to go short or buy puts so I have to be very confident in what it is I am betting on. </p>

<p>For anyone who reads this - I am not giving advice or recommending any stock, trade or alcoholic beverage. So do your own homework because it is your money. </p>
 
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