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<img src="http://teamworkhomes.com/crm/stat/reo_ir_08aug.jpg" alt="" />





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Comment on ?Shadow Inventory?: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated before Trustee's Sale. Technically speaking, they can?t be counted as ?inventory? until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling. If brokers can?t sell certain properties, they end up in public auction.
 
<em>"The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year.

There were 144 closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes during June, down 39 percent from the 237 sales in same month last year.</em>








Down 15.4% in one year? That is stabilizing?






<strong>Practical tips wining bargain properties:</strong>


1. Be patient. Wait a couple more years.

2. Be patient. If you wait a couple years before you buy, you will buy more house for less money.

3. Be extremely wary of anyone who tells you to buy now, or you snooze, you lose.

4. Wait. Anyone telling you to buy now is more interested in getting a commission than what is best for you and your family.

5. Be patient. Wait a couple more years before you buy. RE sales volume always goes up in the spring, but that does not mean anything. YOY sales are what truthseekers will use.
 
Food for thoughts:



Warren Buffett's wisdoms

"Rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshilds", (My 2 cents: anyone claims to know the future is either a fool or a liar.)

"Be greedy when others are fearful..." (Perfect timing if you can overcome your fear of short-term falling price)

"Buy with a margin of safety" (In REO case, you should buy with a built-in equity if you know how to negotiate and be persistent.)



Real estate is not an effient market, you can build wealth in any market if you know how. There are alway bargains offered by motivated sellers.



Warning: Real etstate investing is not meant for everyone, weigh the pros and cons before acting. Make an informed and educated decisions.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1217669747]

<img src="http://teamworkhomes.com/crm/stat/Irvinereo.bmp" alt="" />



2008 Q1 <a href="http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/CMA/Custom/BuyerCma.asp?emailGUID=0b378c88-06de-4f10-9e4f-fa5c2b97e9d6&AgentId=PMOQIRON">CMA Page</a> <a href="http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/PrtBuy4/PrtBuy4.asp?emailGUID=0b378c88-06de-4f10-9e4f-fa5c2b97e9d6&AgentId=PMOQIRON">Client Short Page</a>

2008 Q2 <a href="http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/CMA/Custom/BuyerCma.asp?emailGUID=45037ed8-a7b8-4e0e-b51c-bbf1e8974280&AgentId=PMOQIRON">CMA Page </a> <a href="http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/PrtBuy4/PrtBuy4.asp?emailGUID=45037ed8-a7b8-4e0e-b51c-bbf1e8974280&AgentId=PMOQIRON">Client Short Page</a>

2008 July <a href="http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/CMA/Custom/BuyerCma.asp?emailGUID=f62dd58d-0a75-441f-ad26-c52f2abe746f&AgentId=PMOQIRON">CMA Page </a> <a href="http://socallistings.marketlinx.com/SearchDetail/Scripts/PrtBuy4/PrtBuy4.asp?emailGUID=f62dd58d-0a75-441f-ad26-c52f2abe746f&AgentId=PMOQIRON">Client Short Page</a>

</blockquote>


At 57 in July, and 86 in the previous quarter, the world of hurt is coming. The pricing is still flat by $/sf which means the foreclosures are moving up the food chain. Volume is moving up and at pace will be triple Q1 and double Q2. Which sounds impressive, however it's <B>JULY</B> Sales normally spike.



Most importantly, at 57 sales in Irvine, it likely means 1 in every 3 sales is now a foreclosure. That means all future Irvine sales will be using foreclosures are their comps.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1217671842]Food for thoughts:



Warren Buffett's wisdoms </blockquote>


You are misrepresenting Warren Buffett's words and taking him out of context.




[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1217671842]



"Rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshilds", (My 2 cents: anyone claims to know the future is either a fool or a liar.)</blockquote>


Absolutely your two cents and not Warren's, because what he means by that is that you can time the market if you wait until you can see the top or the bottom in the past. Warren Buffett invests based on fundamentals, not based on claiming to see the future. The fundamentals of residential real estate are still terrible and Warren said so himself in public one week ago.




[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1217671842]



"Be greedy when others are fearful..." (Perfect timing if you can overcome your fear of short-term falling price)</blockquote>


Warren Buffett has never said you would have <em>"Perfect timing if you can overcome your fear of short-term falling price"</em>, and fear has only started in the re market. There are still tons of knife catchers, (greedy), listening to you and losing their life savings.




[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1217671842]



"Buy with a margin of safety" (In REO case, you should buy with a built-in equity if you know how to negotiate and be persistent.)</blockquote>


"If you know how" are the active and important words. There are professional flippers out there who will get every good deal. Do you play poker with big money against professional poker players? If you do, you will be poor quickly.



[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1217671842]



Real estate is not an effient market, you can build wealth in any market if you know how. There are alway bargains offered by motivated sellers.



Warning: Real etstate investing is not meant for everyone, weigh the pros and cons before acting. Make an informed and educated decisions.</blockquote>


Well, at least there is some honestly in all this horse___ . An informed and educated decision in this case is to stay as far away from this carnival barker as you can.


How many REOs has Warren bought lately?
 
Thanks awgee. Your rant saved me from carpel tunnel syndrome and I think you may have even said it better.



Well... I will add one thing, and then some needed Buffett quotes. If there are more NODs in the last few months than when those homes became REO, let alone finally get to market, then you would think that the common sense of an ant and math skills of a 2nd grader would know that more REOs are coming.



Man... I really feel sorry for IR2 when there are sooooooo many people like this that tarnish the reputation of the industry as a whole.



Here are some Buffett quotes to add for everyone's information...



<em>"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."</em>



<em>"It is more important to say 'no' to an opportunity, than to say 'yes'."</em>



<em>"Turn-arounds" seldom turn.</em>



And my hat tip to IR2 and what some Realtors should do, but don't deserve IR2's time...



<em>?It's better to hang out with people better than you, ... Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction.?</em>
 
Informed Decisions:

I really do appreciate the stats on REOs that you have provided. It is information that many readers do not have quick access to. And these are numbers that should be discussed. I sincerely hope you continue to post this information.



However, you may want to refrain from posting 'practical tips' until you have proven yourself as trustworthy to the community here. Also, as it is very easy for discussions to stray from the original topic, I would keep 'tips' and 'REO stats for Irvine' in completely separate topics. If that sounds good to you, make a new topic with only the REO Stats for Irvine and I'll rename/edit this thread.



Provide the hard facts (numbers), answer questions about Irvine/OC that you may have expertise in, and become a part of the community. Spend some time here (like IR2 and others have done) and you might even make some friends and get some leads (but actively seeking it, will not likely work here). Welcome!
 
Facts and Opinions. What are the different? Let's look at an example,



Fact: Half-filled water glass

Opinion 1: The Glass is Half Empty.

Opinion 2: The Glass is Half Full.



Most of the time, one opinion dominates the world. Do people deserve to hear the other opinion?



A balanced view of the fact is what I would like to give this board. I'll give you the statistics, and I'll

tell you my opinions supported by the facts.



So, it is fair for everyone to give us both facts and opinions.



Everyone including realtors will add value to this forum by giving a balanced view of what is really going on in the market.



As far as I am concerned, being prejudiced, name calling and personal attack don't add value at all. A few people here are merely quoting others, "somebody say so and so." I would appreciate it if their opinions are actually backed up by their own research and good reasoning.
 
Zov - I have to agree with MisInformed here. I welcome his opinions and when his opinions misinterpret the facts, I or others will point out his errors and inconsistencies.


The best investors see the glass as neither half full or half empty. The best investors pour the contents of the glass into a measuring cup to see the actual number of ounces. They are not emotionally invested in any particular direction of any particular market. Half full or half empty is irrelevant. Accurate and complete data and knowing the importance of that data, (fundamentals), is relevant.
 
Data is data and as long as the data isn't corrupted it's good.



Anybody got estimates on July Irvine Foreclosures? Looking at the other foreclosure graphic in the OC Register it looks like Irvine is in the 0-3 and 3-6/1000 range on their zips. That will likely put Irvine foreclosures for Q2 between 140 and 210. Potentially more than they've sold YTD and on par or more than their current sales rate.



Can someone pull the actual Irvine YTD and by month foreclosure numbers? It would be an interesting comparison to the sale, but it appears will REOs resales are picking up, they're still losing ground to incoming REOs.



If REOs are already sucking up 1/3rd of sales and they're stockpiling on inventory we either need an even larger increase in sales/month or REOs will need to suck up an even larger percentage of sales. This is going into August and the fall when sales start to slow.
 
I certainly did not mean to imply that his opinions were not welcome; opinions are an integral part of the forums. ;)

My intention was to offer advice on how realtors could provide value and become a part of the IHB community. It seemed to me that the path he was going down was not going to be much fun.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1217734525]Data is data and as long as the data isn't corrupted it's good.



Anybody got estimates on July Irvine Foreclosures? Looking at the other foreclosure graphic in the OC Register it looks like Irvine is in the 0-3 and 3-6/1000 range on their zips. That will likely put Irvine foreclosures for Q2 between 140 and 210. Potentially more than they've sold YTD and on par or more than their current sales rate.



Can someone pull the actual Irvine YTD and by month foreclosure numbers? It would be an interesting comparison to the sale, but it appears will REOs resales are picking up, they're still losing ground to incoming REOs.



If REOs are already sucking up 1/3rd of sales and they're stockpiling on inventory we either need an even larger increase in sales/month or REOs will need to suck up an even larger percentage of sales. This is going into August and the fall when sales start to slow.</blockquote>


32 foreclosures for Irvine for the month of July per foreclosure radar. YTD 110 foreclosures. I'm too lazy at the moment and need to run an errand soon to post the month by month numbers, but with July having nearly 30% of the foreclosures YTD, then you know that they have ramped up lately. NODs in Irvine YTD are 302, with 84 for July. At first I thought the NODs were dropping, but now that the final numbers for the month are in they are up again.
 
[quote author="zovall" date=1217734835]I certainly did not mean to imply that his opinions were not welcome; opinions are an integral part of the forums. ;)

My intention was to offer advice on how realtors could provide value and become a part of the IHB community. It seemed to me that the path he was going down was not going to be much fun.</blockquote>


I see your point. Not much fun for him/her. :coolgrin:
 
Just FYI: There are currently 76 Irvine homes scheduled for the SA courthouse foreclosure auction.



Now... for the juicy good fun that has come about from me looking up those Irvine foreclosures. <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-plot-thickens-in-fraud-park/">Does everyone remember our friends from the Fraud Park clan</a>? Well <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=59729861">86 Sorenson</a> got foreclosed on and bought at the auction by our friends over at Pacific Legacy here in good ol' Villa Park. Things must not be so good at Pacific Legacy because 86 Sorenson is scheduled for the foreclosure auction again on the 20th with a NTS of $692k. The good folks over at the Wisteria HOA put the smack down on them and made them pay up the back HOA dues. It seems they don't like to pay HOA dues by all the other liens filed by the other various HOAs. But, Chrissy Street handles back taxes the same way he marks to market the worthless SIVs they own, and hasn't gotten them to pay up on the $29k in back taxes, the penalties are over $6k alone. Mmmm... maybe they should have done a little more research?



I didn't see this home on Zip, Redfin, Ipo's site, or <a href="http://www.pacificlegacyre.com/">Pacific Legacy's site</a>. Maybe IR2 can shed some light on this home, or informed_decisions can inform us on what is really going on.
 
Back when I started reading IHB, I went bank a ways and started

foreward. It was like looking at a foreclosure tsunami headed toward

us all. Closings had aready stopped dead, but foreclosures were just

starting their horrific rise in Miami-Dade County. Now we are in the midst

of the big wave, with no end in sight. Roubini sez about another year.



In the wave metaphor, until it goes out again. Leaving wreckage

everywhere, and rebuilding to do financially for years and years.



The national news showed these Cali laid off gov't employees demanding their jobs

back. Where do they think the money is gonna come from?



It is really very sad.
 
[quote author="lawyerliz" date=1217745164]

The national news showed these Cali laid off gov't employees demanding their jobs

back. Where do they think the money is gonna come from?

</blockquote>


Is that the same news where they showed the DMV lines and didn't bother to look inside the DMV to see that the DMV site managers were just locking people out of the building letting them in one by one instead of waiting in the lobby were they previously waiting in the provided chairs?



I was laughing on the drive home when caller after caller into the radio station was reporting that the inside of the DMV only had people working with the people and nobody in the waiting area because they wanted to stage it to look like they are being massively impacted when the fact is it was just another day.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217744168]Just FYI: There are currently 76 Irvine homes scheduled for the SA courthouse foreclosure auction.</blockquote>


Graph, over what time period? A month?
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1217755842][quote author="graphrix" date=1217744168]Just FYI: There are currently 76 Irvine homes scheduled for the SA courthouse foreclosure auction.</blockquote>


Graph, over what time period? A month?</blockquote>


Starting from 8/4 and all the way out to 9/30. More will be added, but many will get postponed too. Add in the 13 at the Orange location, and you have yourself a foreclosure party. I will see if I can find a way to check the Placentia location, but if you add in the 35 more that Foreclosure Radar shows, then you have a grand total of 124.



I guess it is better to come to IHB for a more informed decision. Here you will find all the water and the right sized glass, elsewhere you just get part of the water and the glass to make it only half full, and if you used that glass it would be overflowing from all the water found here. I say the more water the better.
 
After some further research of my own on 86 Sorenson, gotta stay informed since IR2 is too busy cracking open the Krystal from Ipo's sale, I figured out that Pacific Legacy bought the second trust deed for $3k. They are probably trying to negotiate with the first to pay them off. The amount owed is $588k plus $95k in back interest and fees. Now that ResMae got a whopping $3k for the $158k second, do you really think they will drop the price below $500k on the first? Since Ipo's place is around the corner and sold for $604k, they would need ResMae to hack another $88k off just to clear a tiny profit with the HOA dues they paid plus the back taxes.



Stay tuned IHBers, for two years now I have been keeping you informed, and I will continue to keep you informed. And remember... don't drink the Kool-Aid, it will cost you dearly.
 
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