New Release: Checking the Health of Irvine Housing Market

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
T

TeamworkHomes_IHB

New member
The Barometer of Irvine?s Housing Market



Timely Facts and Numbers that JUST occured,

NOT what happened 3 to 12 months before.

OR pure speculation on what if somehting MIGHT happen 6 to 12 months later.



<img src="http://teamworkhomes.com/crm/stat/stat_ir_08aug.jpg" alt="" />





To learn more about housing indicators, click link to CNN Money



http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/07/real_estate/price_to_rent.moneymag/index.htm



Footnote:



1. Active Listings: Total housing stocks on the market for sale in Multiple Listing Service on last day of the month. This is supply side of the local housing market. Look for increased (or decreased) supply number here.

2. Pending Listing: Total number of homes are under contract to sell on last day of the month. It normally takes 30 to 60 days to close. Majority of these sales will be closed; failed contracts are either back to market or withdrawn from market.

3. Units sold: Total number of transactions closed within the month. This represents the demand size of the market. Note that in any market, some percentage of homes will never be sold due to various reasons; these are the phantom inventory.

4. Average sale price: the average price of all homes sold within the month. It can vary monthly due to small sample size.

5. Sale Price / Square Foot: this is used only to measure the price index of the local market. It is not intended to price individual home based on square footage.

6. Sale Price/Sqft, % change month over month: It is used to measue the short-term price movement, the pace of price decline or back to stability.

7. SP/LP ? sale price vs. listing price: room for price negotiation indicates whether it is a buyer market or seller market. Watch how these number change per month to feel the power played between seller and buyer.

8. Days on Market: the marketing time it takes for a competitively-priced home to find a ready and willing buyers.

9. Inventory Level (month): the time it takes for the market to unload all active listings given the current month?s absorption rate, Units Sold.



Comment on ?Shadow Inventory?: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12 months) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated. Technically speaking, they can?t be counted as ?inventory? until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling job. If brokers can?t sell it, they end up in public auction.



Disclaimer: This data provided here are merely facts and statistics. NO professional advice is given here. It is not intented to encourage or discourage the public to buy or sell real estate. You should carefully consider your own financial situations before you act . The data publisher is not responsible for any gain or loss resulting from use of this data. Use it at your own risk.



The publisher will not comment on any specific scenario or question on this forum. However, you are welcome to direct your personal question to the data publisher via e-mail. You can also request home statistics for specific price range, type of home in specific neighborhood or village, which are more relevant to your housing needs.
 
Jeezus... with all those disclosures I dunno if I am buying a home or investing in a hedge fund?



<blockquote>The publisher will not comment on any specific scenario or question on this forum. However, you are welcome to direct your personal question to the data publisher via e-mail. You can also request home statistics for specific price range, type of home in specific neighborhood or village, which are more relevant to your housing needs.</blockquote>


This is what the forums are for, public discussion. They are not for you to drum up business, and by going about it the way that you have, then you won't get any here. Plus if someone wants those stats, they can ask here in a public manner and get their answer for all to see, since that is what people come here for. You know, that whole discussion thing that forums are, encourage that. If someone wants to keep it private, then I am sure they know who to ask by now.



From the CNN article...



Housing Price-to-Rent Ratios

A market's price-to-rent ratio measures how much it costs to purchase a home, relative to what it costs to rent a similar one for a year. As the P/R ratio falls, more buyers are likely to enter the market. While P/R ratios in many markets have come down lately, they're still high relative to their long-term average.



For Orange County

Q1/2008 Peak Q1/2000 AVG.

29.9 40.0 19.9 25.1



Keep in mind the average is skewed by the high P/R ratio of the bubble years and the fact that it always, and I mean always overshoots on the down side. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 15 P/R ratio at the bottom.
 
Yeah graph, based on simple look-see of the PR ratio, we have between 16-33% still to go... A 20 PR feels about right to me.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1218719393]Jeezus... with all those disclosures I dunno if I am buying a home or investing in a hedge fund?



<blockquote>The publisher will not comment on any specific scenario or question on this forum. However, you are welcome to direct your personal question to the data publisher via e-mail. You can also request home statistics for specific price range, type of home in specific neighborhood or village, which are more relevant to your housing needs.</blockquote>


This is what the forums are for, public discussion. They are not for you to drum up business, and by going about it the way that you have, then you won't get any here. Plus if someone wants those stats, they can ask here in a public manner and get their answer for all to see, since that is what people come here for. You know, that whole discussion thing that forums are, encourage that. If someone wants to keep it private, then I am sure they know who to ask by now.



</blockquote>


I have to err on full disclosure here. I would rather refrain saying anything personal at all, as to avoid being accused of misleading anyone. Again, it is my personal preference not to discuss specifics with general public without knowing their personal situation first. The data and statistics are all backed up by original research. I think it is up to the viewers to decide for themselves how to interpret them. And it is true that national data is not equivalant to local data, local data is not that useful if you are looking for specific price range of homes. I think everyone should be aware of that. Peace.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1218722426][quote author="graphrix" date=1218719393]Jeezus... with all those disclosures I dunno if I am buying a home or investing in a hedge fund?



<blockquote>The publisher will not comment on any specific scenario or question on this forum. However, you are welcome to direct your personal question to the data publisher via e-mail. You can also request home statistics for specific price range, type of home in specific neighborhood or village, which are more relevant to your housing needs.</blockquote>


This is what the forums are for, public discussion. They are not for you to drum up business, and by going about it the way that you have, then you won't get any here. Plus if someone wants those stats, they can ask here in a public manner and get their answer for all to see, since that is what people come here for. You know, that whole discussion thing that forums are, encourage that. If someone wants to keep it private, then I am sure they know who to ask by now.



</blockquote>


I have to err on full disclosure here. I would rather refrain saying anything personal at all, as to avoid being accused of misleading anyone. Again, it is my personal preference not to discuss specifics with general public without knowing their personal situation first. The data and statistics are all backed up by original research. I think it is up to the viewers to decide for themselves how to interpret them. And it is true that national data is not equivalant to local data, local data is not that useful if you are looking for specific price range of homes. I think everyone should be aware of that. Peace.</blockquote>


Actually the data and statistics you show are erroneous, false, misleading, self-serving, and gathered by a prejudicial source with extreme bias. If you want to actually be informed or help to inform, check the facts and do even the slightest bit of research for yourself.


<a href="http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/2008/08/insight-into-shadow-inventory.html?ref=patrick.net">MLS omissions, garbage data, and lies</a>
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218720210]Yeah graph, based on simple look-see of the PR ratio, we have between 16-33% still to go... A 20 PR feels about right to me.</blockquote>


A 20 PR doesn't feel right to me unless they are including a whole ton of stuff in their cost to own. At a 20 PR, a condo renting for $2000 would sell for $400,000...
 
<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/article_2118181.php">Data Quick sales numbers for late July.</a>



Hmm, for the 22 business days ending Jully 22nd, looks like sales volume is down in all but one Irvine zip code YOY. For that one, the price is down 29%. Heck, be glad you aren't in 92612, the sales volume is down 47.9% and price is down 44%. Guess the high-end dried up there or something. Oh, and for those 22 business days, that's 203 sales. The obvious conclusion is MLS is either missing data (about 15%) or sales fell off a virtual cliff that last week of July.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1218711431]



<img src="http://teamworkhomes.com/crm/stat/irvine_re_stats_08.bmp" alt="" />



</blockquote>


If you are trying to inform me, why is so much data missing from your chart? Why display numbers without historical context? What is that supposed to tell me? What's up with comparing Jan 08 to the average for 07 instead of Dec 07? Where is the monthly breakdown for other years...which would show the usual seasonality of the RE market? Where are the pending sales for other months/years? I'd like to see July 07 data at the very least if you are going to display July 08 data.



It's common for charts and facts to be given in support of a point. Did you have one? Oh wait. Nevermind. You don't want to discuss it in a public forum.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1218752715][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218720210]Yeah graph, based on simple look-see of the PR ratio, we have between 16-33% still to go... A 20 PR feels about right to me.</blockquote>


A 20 PR doesn't feel right to me unless they are including a whole ton of stuff in their cost to own. At a 20 PR, a condo renting for $2000 would sell for $400,000...</blockquote>
I think the ratio is on annual expense. 20*$2000 = $40,000, so it's actually higher at $480,000. ;)
 
Some FRIENDLY advice for newbie realtors who want to post informational data on the IHB: If posting information that you just got from your weekly sales meeting, check the info for inconsistencies and omissions of relevant data.




I have learned that there are an inordinate number of extremely bright folks posting here, and if I post something as fact which is incomplete or is inaccurate or actually opinion, they will rip me up a new one.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1218762048]




I have learned that there are an inordinate number of extremely bright folks posting here, and if I post something as fact which is incomplete or is inaccurate or actually opinion, they will rip me up a new one.</blockquote>


<img src="http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/funny-pictures-black-cat-missed-litterbox.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="Daedalus" date=1218758501][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1218752715][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1218720210]Yeah graph, based on simple look-see of the PR ratio, we have between 16-33% still to go... A 20 PR feels about right to me.</blockquote>


A 20 PR doesn't feel right to me unless they are including a whole ton of stuff in their cost to own. At a 20 PR, a condo renting for $2000 would sell for $400,000...</blockquote>
I think the ratio is on annual expense. 20*$2000 = $40,000, so it's actually higher at $480,000. ;)</blockquote>


I've been studying my California Real Estate licensing examination finance prep class too much.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1218762487]Can we delete this whole thread? I am dumber for having read it...</blockquote>


"What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.



I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
 
Here is the link:



<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c</a>



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
New stat in August for Irvine Housing Market.



Please see the first post in this thread.



Comment on ?Shadow Inventory?: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12 months) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated. Technically speaking, they can?t be counted as ?inventory? until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling job. If brokers can?t sell it, they end up in public auction.
 
[quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1220442657]New stat in August for Irvine Housing Market.



Please see the first post in this thread.



Comment on ?Shadow Inventory?: It normally takes months (probably 6 to 12 months) for pre-foreclosure properties NOD,NTS and REO to pass many legal hurdles before they hit the resale market. Some percentage of NODs and NTSs will be reinstated. Technically speaking, they can?t be counted as ?inventory? until they are put on MLS, where most REO homes are marketed. Again, banks and asset managers are not in the business selling real estate; They ultimately hire brokers to do the selling job. If brokers can?t sell it, they end up in public auction.</blockquote>


See comment in the other thread you posted in about shadow inventory.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1218745565][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1218722426][quote author="graphrix" date=1218719393]Jeezus... with all those disclosures I dunno if I am buying a home or investing in a hedge fund?



<blockquote>The publisher will not comment on any specific scenario or question on this forum. However, you are welcome to direct your personal question to the data publisher via e-mail. You can also request home statistics for specific price range, type of home in specific neighborhood or village, which are more relevant to your housing needs.</blockquote>


This is what the forums are for, public discussion. They are not for you to drum up business, and by going about it the way that you have, then you won't get any here. Plus if someone wants those stats, they can ask here in a public manner and get their answer for all to see, since that is what people come here for. You know, that whole discussion thing that forums are, encourage that. If someone wants to keep it private, then I am sure they know who to ask by now.



</blockquote>


I have to err on full disclosure here. I would rather refrain saying anything personal at all, as to avoid being accused of misleading anyone. Again, it is my personal preference not to discuss specifics with general public without knowing their personal situation first. The data and statistics are all backed up by original research. I think it is up to the viewers to decide for themselves how to interpret them. And it is true that national data is not equivalant to local data, local data is not that useful if you are looking for specific price range of homes. I think everyone should be aware of that. Peace.</blockquote>


Actually the data and statistics you show are erroneous, false, misleading, self-serving, and gathered by a prejudicial source with extreme bias. If you want to actually be informed or help to inform, check the facts and do even the slightest bit of research for yourself.


<a href="http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/2008/08/insight-into-shadow-inventory.html?ref=patrick.net">MLS omissions, garbage data, and lies</a></blockquote>


It IS my original research from MLS data. Now please show the readers how your original research (not quoting 2nd hand data) proved that the above data are erroneous, false and misleading.



It was properly disclosed on the data sheet that NOT ALL sales data were included in MLS. Granted, MLS data is not the only datasource, and is NOT a perfect datasource. But as long as data are recorded consistently, it is a good and reliable datasource. At least it is better than "national enquiries" equivalence.



Saying a datasource imperfect and accusing it false are totally different things. It just showed that the accuser is extremely biased , judgemental and intolerable. Maybe the Zovall should censor this forum.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1218745565][quote author="Informed_Decisions" date=1218722426][quote author="graphrix" date=1218719393]Jeezus... with all those disclosures I dunno if I am buying a home or investing in a hedge fund?



<blockquote>The publisher will not comment on any specific scenario or question on this forum. However, you are welcome to direct your personal question to the data publisher via e-mail. You can also request home statistics for specific price range, type of home in specific neighborhood or village, which are more relevant to your housing needs.</blockquote>


This is what the forums are for, public discussion. They are not for you to drum up business, and by going about it the way that you have, then you won't get any here. Plus if someone wants those stats, they can ask here in a public manner and get their answer for all to see, since that is what people come here for. You know, that whole discussion thing that forums are, encourage that. If someone wants to keep it private, then I am sure they know who to ask by now.



</blockquote>


I have to err on full disclosure here. I would rather refrain saying anything personal at all, as to avoid being accused of misleading anyone. Again, it is my personal preference not to discuss specifics with general public without knowing their personal situation first. The data and statistics are all backed up by original research. I think it is up to the viewers to decide for themselves how to interpret them. And it is true that national data is not equivalant to local data, local data is not that useful if you are looking for specific price range of homes. I think everyone should be aware of that. Peace.</blockquote>


Actually the data and statistics you show are erroneous, false, misleading, self-serving, and gathered by a prejudicial source with extreme bias. If you want to actually be informed or help to inform, check the facts and do even the slightest bit of research for yourself.


<a href="http://sacrealstats.blogspot.com/2008/08/insight-into-shadow-inventory.html?ref=patrick.net">MLS omissions, garbage data, and lies</a></blockquote>


It IS my original research from MLS data. Now please show the readers how your original research (not quoting 2nd hand data) proved that the above data are erroneous, false and misleading.



It was properly disclosed on the data sheet that NOT ALL sales data were included in MLS. Granted, MLS data is not the only datasource, and is NOT a perfect datasource. But as long as data are recorded consistently, it is a good and reliable datasource. At least it is better than "national enquiries" equivalence.



Saying a datasource imperfect and accusing it false are totally different things. It just showed that the accuser is extremely biased , judgemental and intolerable. Maybe the Zovall should censor this forum, allowing only one datasource and one voice. What country am I living in? I am confused.
 
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