New homes type poll

[irvinehomeowner]

Time for another Boring IHO Poll?...

Now that Woodbury is getting close to build out, what type of homes are you hoping they will build in the future areas of Irvine?

Seems like they are leaning towards the lower end attached products but I would like to see a lower priced detached SFR product with a traditional driveway. It can be smaller than Sonoma (2000sft) and the lot doesn't have to be big... but just lay it out like a traditional home with a front driveway, a sidewalk (a berm of grass would be nice) and some front yard. I'll settle for a back garage (although I still think that takes up more space) depending on location.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I guess the people on this board prefer a detached product... while TIC is busy making attached ones... heh.

 

[Irvine2Irvine]

I guess the people on this board prefer a detached product... while TIC is busy making attached ones... heh.

I think the people on this borad prefer a detached product at a price which TIC offers the attached ones 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think the people on this borad prefer a detached product at a price which TIC offers the attached ones 

Using Primrose, Santa Cruz, Montecito, Casero and Los Arboles as an example... TIC can provide detached products in the $600k-$800k price range.

I would buy one of those if they put them in Laguna Crossings (which chances are high... since much of TIC's tracts recycle the same floorplans).

 

[LAtoOC]

I think a true detached SFR would be nice. Santa Cruz is a "detached condo"

 

[Talyssa]

I think the people on this borad prefer a detached product at a price which TIC offers the attached ones 

yeah thats what I think.  If they built a bunch of 3-4 br detached at 600k they would be sold before they even so much as casually glanced at the ground they were going to build them on.

 

[Irvine2Irvine]

I think the people on this borad prefer a detached product at a price which TIC offers the attached ones 

yeah thats what I think.  If they built a bunch of 3-4 br detached at 600k they would be sold before they even so much as casually glanced at the ground they were going to build them on.

Only problem is that they did the exact thing but at  $800K+

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Only problem is that they did the exact thing but at  $800K+

SHHHH!! Maybe they won't remember.

These are not the price points you are looking for.

 

[iacrenter]

I think the people on this borad prefer a detached product at a price which TIC offers the attached ones 

yeah thats what I think.  If they built a bunch of 3-4 br detached at 600k they would be sold before they even so much as casually glanced at the ground they were going to build them on.

Only problem is that they did the exact thing but at  $800K+

I think resale will be where most TI folks will find the best bargains going forward. New construction detached products with traditional SFR layout in Irvine at $600-700K is dead.

 

[gaab]

I agree - I'm watching about 30 properties at the moment - just waiting for the right time (personally) and I'll spring.

gaab

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I have not checked in here much lately, but wow --- crickets out on Talk Irvine for the last couple of weeks.  And since seemingly the only topic of conversation around here has been the New Home Collection, how should one read into the recent silence?

Like it's been jumpin' over at OCR?

Other than where to hold an FFL draft, Velv leaving town and BK up to his usual sheeple critiques... I say we're even. At least the K-Pop count here is higher.

 

[Irvine2Irvine]

Maybe the Japanese Girls' Generation has the answer?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkDj7diXJzk[/youtube]

Wow, that's a lot of legs!!!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Yep, dead there as well.  Nobody wants to talk about real estate anywhere.  That was exactly my point. 

Please expound.

Seems like the anti-Irvine bears still don't want to admit Irvine's price stubborness. They were all "2010 Colleciton will never sell through!" and now that it has... what are they saying? I also find it funny that BK mentions FCBs frequently and Lane doesn't challenge him.

But there is some softening on the resale end... I see lots of activity, price drops and lower initial listings but they are still above most other cities. And my homework from IR still shows why Irvine pricing is more stable... higher down payments tend to keep owners from going underwater. There is the occasional FHA 1.8% down... but for every one of those there are multiple 25% or more downs (more 100% downs than even I expected).

But hey... Irvine isn't different right?

 

[fe9000]

I have not checked in here much lately, but wow --- crickets out on Talk Irvine for the last couple of weeks.  And since seemingly the only topic of conversation around here has been the New Home Collection, how should one read into the recent silence?

Like it's been jumpin' over at OCR?

Yep, dead there as well.  Nobody wants to talk about real estate anywhere.  That was exactly my point. 

What real estate?  It's football season baby!!!

 

[iphb]

Yep, dead there as well.  Nobody wants to talk about real estate anywhere.  That was exactly my point. 

Please expound.

Seems like the anti-Irvine bears still don't want to admit Irvine's price stubborness. They were all "2010 Colleciton will never sell through!" and now that it has... what are they saying? I also find it funny that BK mentions FCBs frequently and Lane doesn't challenge him.

But there is some softening on the resale end... I see lots of activity, price drops and lower initial listings but they are still above most other cities. And my homework from IR still shows why Irvine pricing is more stable... higher down payments tend to keep owners from going underwater. There is the occasional FHA 1.8% down... but for every one of those there are multiple 25% or more downs (more 100% downs than even I expected).

But hey... Irvine isn't different right?

This has probably been mentioned several times here, but the success of the new homes in and around Woodbury this year can be attributed to (1) the general appeal of Irvine, (2) new homes, (3) the fact that the new homes are priced comparably or a bit below resale comps, (4) the tax credits, and (5) a perception that prices have pretty much bottomed and should increase from here. As long as the TIC continues to build, there should be ample supply of new homes for the next few years.

I'm somewhat of a bear, but not anti-Irvine. I've been renting here for over a year and love being in Irvine. I've considered buying, have prequalified with builders at WB and SGE, and can put down a substantial down payment for a home. My problem with buying right now is that the market is so abnormal and fraught with uncertainty. Do I really want to be throwing hundreds of thousands of dollars into a home now and see it possibly lose in value? Sure, the FCBs and big down payment buyers for the 2010 new homes won't go underwater, but they certainly won't be happy to lose money nonetheless. And those that bought "starter homes" expecting to step up with good equity in a few years could be disappointed too.

It may be true that Irvine will bear somewhat less of the brunt of any further market "correction," but it has its fair share of high inventory, distressed properties and shadow inventory. Also, as I see it, buyer focus in Irvine will quickly shift beyond WB once build-out is complete. Buyers will turn their attention to Laguna Crossing, SG, and wherever else there will be new homes. That means WB and the surrounding areas will eventually join the other "resale" areas of Irvine and compete with new construction.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Great first post iphb.... but you have to admit... Irvine's "fair share" is not as bad as other cities (and remember... it's not just Irvine that is like this... other cities are fairly stubborn like Tustin Ranch, Newport etc).

 

[iphb]

Great first post iphb.... but you have to admit... Irvine's "fair share" is not as bad as other cities (and remember... it's not just Irvine that is like this... other cities are fairly stubborn like Tustin Ranch, Newport etc).

Absolutely. But probably still want to wait it out and see how/when the market finally heals. Also curious to see what impact, if any, there will be on prices if interest rates rise.

 

[Irvine2Irvine]

Great first post iphb.... but you have to admit... Irvine's "fair share" is not as bad as other cities (and remember... it's not just Irvine that is like this... other cities are fairly stubborn like Tustin Ranch, Newport etc).

Absolutely. But probably still want to wait it out and see how/when the market finally heals. Also curious to see what impact, if any, there will be on prices if interest rates rise.

That's been discuss many time on this forum.  If the interest rate rises, the price has to go down.  However, due to the FCB and high percentage down payment buyers, Irvine house price will not go down in linear relationship with the interest rate.  Expect smaller price reduction than other cities when the interest rates do rise.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Yeah... my tagline should be "High interest rates don't actually mean low enough prices".

I've posted many calculations of what kind of price drops we will have to see for a 2% rise in rates (putting us back near 7% which was considered low at one time)... and it comes out to 100s of thousands in the $800k+ range (which would put into the most popular selection on this poll)... I don't really see that happening. It would be nice if a $900k home would go for $750k in the near future but that's almost a 20% drop and it's going to take more than a 2 point rise in interest for that to hit.

Even IrvineRenter, the proponent of "buy when interest rates are high" on the IHB, understands the buying power that such a low interest rate has. Sure, people say you can always refi your loan but not the price of your house... but at the same time, if you can't guarantee prices will go up... then you can't guarantee rates will do down again either. Yet... no one mentions that do they?

 

[Irvine2Irvine]

Yeah... my tagline should be "High interest rates don't actually mean low enough prices".

I've posted many calculations of what kind of price drops we will have to see for a 2% rise in rates (putting us back near 7% which was considered low at one time)... and it comes out to 100s of thousands in the $800k+ range (which would put into the most popular selection on this poll)... I don't really see that happening. It would be nice if a $900k home would go for $750k in the near future but that's almost a 20% drop and it's going to take more than a 2 point rise in interest for that to hit.

Even IrvineRenter, the proponent of "buy when interest rates are high" on the IHB, understands the buying power that such a low interest rate has. Sure, people say you can always refi your loan but not the price of your house... but at the same time, if you can't guarantee prices will go up... then you can't guarantee rates will do down again either. Yet... no one mentions that do they?

At today's rate of 4.25% for 30yr fixed on $417K loan, the downside potential is a lot smaller than the upside potential.