Monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January

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Anonymous_IHB

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<p>I wonder if this trend holds true for Irvine, and what neighbourhoods...</p>

<p> <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_8344134">http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_8344134</a></p>

<p>For what one expert thought was the first time, the number of monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January, according to data compiled by two research companies.</p>
 
Almost certainly not true for Irvine, which is still doing better than California in general. But it's bad enough. The expert can be quite confident since January was the worst house sales <b>and</b> the worst foreclosures, ever on record, simultaneously.
 
Well, since those foreclosures will have to be sold, I predict we will see an increase in sales...





Rich Toscano at Piggington has done an excellent series on the impact of foreclosures on the market. His latest update:







<a href="http://piggington.com/foreclosure_chart_extravaganza_january_2008">Foreclosure Chart Extravaganza: January 2008</a>







Graphrix,





In my opinion, this study by Toscano is some of the finest data analysis I have seen in a while. Have you been tracking NODs and total sales? If we could get this data for Irvine, I would like to write a post about it and make frequent updates. Basically, when the number of existing home sales divided by the number of NODs is less than 2, prices decline, and when it is greater than 2, they do not. If you check out his charts, the correspondence is amazing. I could see having a little forecast arrow (like Lansner's red and green house arrow) that forecasts market direction based on this ratio. Need the data though...
 
Here is a chart of the quarterly resale data, and the foreclosure data, from 1992 through 2007.





<img src="http://img109.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2008/02/24/resaleforeclosure-49mk4yxtf.jpeg" alt="" />
 
<p>This is an <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/personal/03/27/foodbank.family/index.html#cnnSTCOther2">interesting chart</a> of foreclosure filings from 2005 to Feb 2008.</p>

<p>It even has a map of 2007 and 2008 of how many foreclosure filings by state. California kicks all the other states butts. Go Cali!! </p>
 
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