Last weekend, I got a chance to go golfing with a friend who works as a director for Lennar (his current development communities are not in Orange County, but they're close). His position gets to make the decisions from start to finish on communities like these, giving approval for everything from initial land purchase including CFD (Mello Roos) negotiations, to lot division, pricing strategy, phase release, advertising/incentive offerings, and all. He was a great person to talk with and gain info about current builder mindset.
My questions to him revolved around: how does he choose which phases and lots get sold first, does he consider sales "momentum", and what are the key points that they are considering in the current market.
Interestingly, and pertinent to this thread, he stated that with inventory levels where they are, and with pricing trends on the greater market generally increasing (at a rate similar to Orange County), they are making a business decision to hold off and delay phase releases with the hopes of selling them at a significantly higher price in 2013 and beyond.
Also of note: he said that they are paying very close attention to how TNHC is doing with Lambert Ranch.
-IrvineRealtor