Market Top
- Thread starter meccos12
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
And what % drop do you predict and over what period?
Don't prices usually dip after the summer selling season? Isn't this like saying the temperature will go down after the summer?
You are comparing stock market REIT prices with residential real estate prices? Commercial real estate does not have the emotional factor that residential real estate does. REITs will always perform poorly in a rising interest rate environment because one of the main reasons why investors buy REITs is for the yield.
I took a look at the charts...both were basically flat from 2013 to 2016 while home prices surged in 2013 and continued to increase in 2014-2016 at a slower pace. Again, trying to take stock performance and try to translate it to what Irvine homes prices might do isn't a great indicator. I also said, keep your eye on inventory levels and # of months of supply of months...that's your tea leaf. Yes, we have slowed a bit as we were at 2 months of inventory back in the winter/spring and now we are at 2.7 months of inventory today but that is mostly due to the increase in supply in the $1m+ market.
There is a lot of demands just can't afford to buy. Prices are high, which forces POTENTIAL BUYERS to rent and see. The Irvine Company play this game well. They know their audiences and read people pockets very well. Another huge apartment complex will soon pop up on Sand Cayon and 5. This too will get fill up very quickly. Builders will build up, more vertical for a bit less price. It too will get gobble up. So to think this is top is premature. The IRVINE market has entered mature cycle, not necessary top.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
And what % drop do you predict and over what period?
the.irvine
Active member
Depends on the price point. Anything less than 850K is still flying out of the market. Maybe it is taking little longer
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
We need a lot more bears jumping on this wagon before I call it top.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
meccos12 said:
Don't prices usually dip after the summer selling season? Isn't this like saying the temperature will go down after the summer?
paperboyNC
New member
Disagree. Real estate will be up another 4-5% next summer. Just not a lot of motivated sellers. Many will rent rather than sell low.
Jarule046
New member
Manhattan prices down 5-7%? Top end hurting downstream. The tax repercussions are finally being felt and will continue to dog the market. That and rates. And the usual cycle. I already see so many price reductions o. The market here and in San Diego. We're waiting until later this year to buy again.
paperboyNC
New member
The reason I predict prices will go up is basic supply and demand.
Contrary to popular belief, demand for housing doesn't matter if it's renters or buyers.
A lesson from 2009 - rents fell
Back in 2009, every pundit predict a surge in rents due to all of the foreclosed homeowners moving into rentals. It never happened.
Why?
In 2018, housing demand (rentals + purchases) is very very strong and supply is limited. If fewer households buyer a home but can still afford their own place, demand for rentals will increase - spurring investors to buy the same homes.
Contrary to popular belief, demand for housing doesn't matter if it's renters or buyers.
A lesson from 2009 - rents fell
Back in 2009, every pundit predict a surge in rents due to all of the foreclosed homeowners moving into rentals. It never happened.
Why?
- Oversupply: New construction had overbuilt housing, particularly in less desirable neighborhoods
- Lack of demand: As millions of Americans lost their jobs, faced paycuts and saw their investments plummet, they bunked up. Recent college grads moved in with their parents, singles that had bought a condo rented a room somewhere, immigrants went back to their home country where cost of living was less.
In 2018, housing demand (rentals + purchases) is very very strong and supply is limited. If fewer households buyer a home but can still afford their own place, demand for rentals will increase - spurring investors to buy the same homes.
Burn That Belly
New member
x
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
You are comparing stock market REIT prices with residential real estate prices? Commercial real estate does not have the emotional factor that residential real estate does. REITs will always perform poorly in a rising interest rate environment because one of the main reasons why investors buy REITs is for the yield.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
I took a look at the charts...both were basically flat from 2013 to 2016 while home prices surged in 2013 and continued to increase in 2014-2016 at a slower pace. Again, trying to take stock performance and try to translate it to what Irvine homes prices might do isn't a great indicator. I also said, keep your eye on inventory levels and # of months of supply of months...that's your tea leaf. Yes, we have slowed a bit as we were at 2 months of inventory back in the winter/spring and now we are at 2.7 months of inventory today but that is mostly due to the increase in supply in the $1m+ market.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
paperboyNC said:
There is a lot of demands just can't afford to buy. Prices are high, which forces POTENTIAL BUYERS to rent and see. The Irvine Company play this game well. They know their audiences and read people pockets very well. Another huge apartment complex will soon pop up on Sand Cayon and 5. This too will get fill up very quickly. Builders will build up, more vertical for a bit less price. It too will get gobble up. So to think this is top is premature. The IRVINE market has entered mature cycle, not necessary top.