<p>I remember looking at those homes in North Tustin in 2004 and saying "WTF? Who is buying these? And how are they paying for them?"</p>
<p>One of my customers retired and I helped him move his stuff out of his shop to his home in North Tustin. He showed me the quaint and well kept but otherwise unspectacular home next door that just sold for $770K. The folks that owned it were both local college professors and had decided to rent instead of owning, taking $100K in equity out for a nest egg and the rest out to pay tuition to thier son's choice of college (about $200K if I remember right). Everyone laughed at them "Just take out a HELOC" and "real estate always goes up". Then I read in this article:</p>
<p>"Their house payment was $3,300 a month, but would reset to more than $5,000 after three years – more than they could afford."</p>
<p>Here are two employed middle managment OC folks who can afford $3300 a month (on the big end of SFR rentals, but still attainable) but can't do another $1700. Gee, maybe affordablity means something. I hate to induce the wrath of Graphrix's Axiom, but here we go again. Whats rent worth in that neighborhood? It can't be $3300 a month ($528K @ 160x) but I bet you could get $2200 ($360K @ 160x).</p>
<p>The title of this article should be "Signposts for the End of the RE Mania".</p>
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