Johns Creek Homes and Real Estate
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The green highlight shows all of the MSA cities that are making new highs. These cities include: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Boston, Denver, Dallas, and Charollet. Denver home prices are currently 16.4% above the last peak value before the financial crisis and Dallas is 13.9% above the last peak value.
As of April 2016, Atlanta is still below the peak value by 5.2% and the Los Angeles index is below the last peak value by 10.1%
Best to Worst performing MSA city from the top to bottom.
There are 6 metro rail trains that go from Corona to Irvine in the morning, and 6 trains going from Irvine to Corona in afternoon. The train ride is about 45 mins each way. They also recently expanded the Perris Valley Line.
Monthly train pass from Corona to Irvine is $238. You may or may not want to live in Corona/Perris/etc, but as an investment property, your tenant can realistically live there and commute by train to LA/OC for work.
Georgia still remains one of the most affordable places to live yet the rent prices continue to rise faster thatn the national averages.
Johns Creek remains the most expensive rental market city with a 2 bedroom median home price of $1500. Johns Creek had a year-to-year growth of 5% over the last 12 months. North Atlanta was the 2nd most expensive city, with a 2 bedroom median rent price at $1370. North Decatur had the 5th highest rents where a 2 bedroom median price tag was at $1320. North Decatur saw the 4th highest growth over the last year for 2 bedrooms at 11.2%.
Austell ranked as the city with the fastest annual rent growth at 16.5%, according to 2 bedroom figures. A 2 bedroom in Austell carries a median price tag of $700, while a 1-bedroom goes for $720.
Cumming had the 3rd fastest growth rate at 11.8%. A 2 bedroom in Cumming goes for a median price of $1120, while a 1 bedroom in Cumming costs $1100.
North Decatur shows the 4th fastest growth rate at 11.2% for 2 bedroom rents. The median price for a 1 bedroom in North Decatur is $1060, while a 2 bedroom goes for $1320. Below is a rental chart that shows the city with the highest rent vs the lowest rent.
Good analysis acpme .
This prompted me to look up annual reports of both Irvine and JC. While JC is definitely growing and just like Irvine, its major sources of revenue are sales tax and property tax and those are going up. However, I found this statement in JC's annual report a bit concerning.
"By and large, however, Johns Creek is
largely a bedroom community with 80 percent of its land devoted to residential uses"
Source:http://www.johnscreekga.gov/JCGA/Media/PDF-Finance/2015-cafr.pdf
I am no expert but from a gut feel it seems to support your theory. I have lived in a town that feels like 80% residential use and while the town has grown, it does not compare by any means to Irvine.
Sort of like how "Fixer Upper" on HGTV fools you into believing Waco TX might be a nice place to live.
panda
Well-known member
The green highlight shows all of the MSA cities that are making new highs. These cities include: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Boston, Denver, Dallas, and Charollet. Denver home prices are currently 16.4% above the last peak value before the financial crisis and Dallas is 13.9% above the last peak value.
As of April 2016, Atlanta is still below the peak value by 5.2% and the Los Angeles index is below the last peak value by 10.1%
Best to Worst performing MSA city from the top to bottom.
momopi
Well-known member
eyephone said:
There are 6 metro rail trains that go from Corona to Irvine in the morning, and 6 trains going from Irvine to Corona in afternoon. The train ride is about 45 mins each way. They also recently expanded the Perris Valley Line.
Monthly train pass from Corona to Irvine is $238. You may or may not want to live in Corona/Perris/etc, but as an investment property, your tenant can realistically live there and commute by train to LA/OC for work.
panda
Well-known member
ACPME,
Firstly, I would like to say that I am very impressed with your thorough analysis and research. I don't think Johns Creek would be a good comparison to a large mature city like Irvine. Johns Creek was formed 10 years ago taking the best affluent parts of Duluth, Suwanee and Alpharetta. A better comparision in my opinion is Present day Forsyth County's population and 20 year ago Irvine. Forsyth County is the wealthiest and the fast growing county in Georgia and the 11th fastest growing county in the nation. From a per capita income, Forsyth County is the 19th county in the nation rivaling Santa Clara county in the Bay Area.
You can see that our 2015 estimate is a similar growth% as Irvine of census 2010. I have been challenged by several seasoned investors that appreciation cannot predicted and that I am only speculating on my investments. I believe that faster than the average appreciation can be predicted with simple economics 101 theory of supply and demand. Asian migration patterns also has a large influence in predicting future appreciation of an area, which we have all witness in Irvine Home prices in the last 15-20 years. If the population growth out paces the supply of homes in a certain region, prices will naturally appreciate faster than an average region.
Also another important factor is the demographics and job growth in an area. ACPME is correct that the jobs market is not concentrated in one area in North Atlanta like it is in Orange County. You have to think about the North Atlanta job market of what it looked like it Orange County in the mid to late 1990s. Home based businesses and the spirit of entrepeneurship is very common here. I would think that many people lived in Orange County but worked in LA back in the mid 1990s. Most of our job centers are still located in the ITP of Atlanta corridor but more and more larger corporate jobs are becoming prevalent in the northern Atlanta region like Alpharetta, Duluth, Suwanee, and Sandy Springs and many families who live up north prefer to find a job in north Atlanta.
What is also interesting to me is that even from demographic standpoint at a state level, Georgia is behind California ateast by 15 years. Last year, for the first time in history, the hispanic population outgrew the white population in California. Hispanics are now the largest ethnic group in California. In Georgia, the whites are still the majority, but I estimate between 2025 - 2030, Georgia will also become a minority majority state just like California is today.
Forsyth County Population Growth
Georgia State Census:
2010 2015
White 55.9% 53.9%
Asian 3.2% 4.0%
Black 30.5% 31.7%
Hispanic 8.8% 9.4%
Irvine Population Growth
California State Census:
2010 2015
White 40.1% 38.0%
Asian 13.0% 14.7%
Black 6.2% 6.5%
Hispanic 37.6.8% 38.8%
Firstly, I would like to say that I am very impressed with your thorough analysis and research. I don't think Johns Creek would be a good comparison to a large mature city like Irvine. Johns Creek was formed 10 years ago taking the best affluent parts of Duluth, Suwanee and Alpharetta. A better comparision in my opinion is Present day Forsyth County's population and 20 year ago Irvine. Forsyth County is the wealthiest and the fast growing county in Georgia and the 11th fastest growing county in the nation. From a per capita income, Forsyth County is the 19th county in the nation rivaling Santa Clara county in the Bay Area.
You can see that our 2015 estimate is a similar growth% as Irvine of census 2010. I have been challenged by several seasoned investors that appreciation cannot predicted and that I am only speculating on my investments. I believe that faster than the average appreciation can be predicted with simple economics 101 theory of supply and demand. Asian migration patterns also has a large influence in predicting future appreciation of an area, which we have all witness in Irvine Home prices in the last 15-20 years. If the population growth out paces the supply of homes in a certain region, prices will naturally appreciate faster than an average region.
Also another important factor is the demographics and job growth in an area. ACPME is correct that the jobs market is not concentrated in one area in North Atlanta like it is in Orange County. You have to think about the North Atlanta job market of what it looked like it Orange County in the mid to late 1990s. Home based businesses and the spirit of entrepeneurship is very common here. I would think that many people lived in Orange County but worked in LA back in the mid 1990s. Most of our job centers are still located in the ITP of Atlanta corridor but more and more larger corporate jobs are becoming prevalent in the northern Atlanta region like Alpharetta, Duluth, Suwanee, and Sandy Springs and many families who live up north prefer to find a job in north Atlanta.
What is also interesting to me is that even from demographic standpoint at a state level, Georgia is behind California ateast by 15 years. Last year, for the first time in history, the hispanic population outgrew the white population in California. Hispanics are now the largest ethnic group in California. In Georgia, the whites are still the majority, but I estimate between 2025 - 2030, Georgia will also become a minority majority state just like California is today.
Forsyth County Population Growth
Georgia State Census:
2010 2015
White 55.9% 53.9%
Asian 3.2% 4.0%
Black 30.5% 31.7%
Hispanic 8.8% 9.4%
Irvine Population Growth
California State Census:
2010 2015
White 40.1% 38.0%
Asian 13.0% 14.7%
Black 6.2% 6.5%
Hispanic 37.6.8% 38.8%
acpme said:
jonesalice34
New member
I think you might be interested in these research
1) 2016 trends for US commercial property (in a nutshell: Dallas?Fort Worth is the most promising market for US commercial property investments this year. San Francisco and Los Angeles also make the top ten investment and construction markets, while Manhattan and Miami ranked only 15th and 19th respectively.)https://tranio.com/usa/analytics/what_the_experts_say_2016_trends_for_us_commercial_property_5086/
2) House prices, rental rates and yields on America?s top residential markets (residential property markets in Orlando, Los Angeles and San Francisco are the most promising this year. The markets where it is time to sell property are Manhattan and Nashville. )
https://tranio.com/usa/analytics/house_prices_rental_rates_and_yields_on_americas_top_residential_markets/
1) 2016 trends for US commercial property (in a nutshell: Dallas?Fort Worth is the most promising market for US commercial property investments this year. San Francisco and Los Angeles also make the top ten investment and construction markets, while Manhattan and Miami ranked only 15th and 19th respectively.)https://tranio.com/usa/analytics/what_the_experts_say_2016_trends_for_us_commercial_property_5086/
2) House prices, rental rates and yields on America?s top residential markets (residential property markets in Orlando, Los Angeles and San Francisco are the most promising this year. The markets where it is time to sell property are Manhattan and Nashville. )
https://tranio.com/usa/analytics/house_prices_rental_rates_and_yields_on_americas_top_residential_markets/
panda
Well-known member
Sorry for the uploading a small image where the text is difficult to see.
Below is the recent census data of the fastest growing counties in the United States. Five of the Georgia County made the list. The two counties where I concentrate my resources for real estate investing are South Forsyth (rank #11) and Gwinnett (rank #83 - Gwinnett County is a minority majority County with a large Asian influence) due the large population growth. Real Estate Prices in Colorado and Texas have been making new highs. I am not big fan of investing in any sector or market where prices are constantly making new highs like they have in the Dallas and Denver housing markets. Florida is starting to look interesting as it is now the third most populous state after California, Texas beating out New York for the #3 spot. You can see from the chart below that Georgia has 5 of the fastest growing counties and Florida has 8.
Below is the recent census data of the fastest growing counties in the United States. Five of the Georgia County made the list. The two counties where I concentrate my resources for real estate investing are South Forsyth (rank #11) and Gwinnett (rank #83 - Gwinnett County is a minority majority County with a large Asian influence) due the large population growth. Real Estate Prices in Colorado and Texas have been making new highs. I am not big fan of investing in any sector or market where prices are constantly making new highs like they have in the Dallas and Denver housing markets. Florida is starting to look interesting as it is now the third most populous state after California, Texas beating out New York for the #3 spot. You can see from the chart below that Georgia has 5 of the fastest growing counties and Florida has 8.
panda
Well-known member
Momopi,
I am constantly learning myself. That $210k property was bit of a risk as 99% of the homes in the subdivision are 4 bedroom SFRs. Rather than having the den upstairs, I asked the builder to convert the den into a 5th bedroom and I was concerned that it may look too crowded on the second floor, but it turned out very nice.
I had 10 calls for this 5 bed per 1 call I would get on the 4 bed. Some markets 3 bedroom are high in demand. For this particular market, 5 bedroom single family homes were high in demand for tenants. It took me 4 days to lease that 5 bedroom for $1700 which makes me think that I priced it too low.
I am trying to learn the commercial space for Hi tech office spaces in Johns Creek. First time I have seen these flex spaces were in Irvine where they are a hybrid between industrial and office commerical space with low ceilings. The new District of downtown Johns Creek will have these startup flex spaces in their commercial district.
There are a lot of first generation Indian IT professionals on H1 Visas here where their American dream is to start their own software companies. They will eventually need these small startup flex spaces. I remember the cheapest flex space rental for these type of unit in Irvine was off of Portola Parkway and Hammond Drive for about $2000 / month triple net for about 1500 square of space 10 years ago. I remember that these units were never vacant as every startup wanted this entry level flex space with the Irvine business address.
Over the last 10 to 15 years, I believe that our economy has transformed from a product based market to an infomation based market. In my opinion, these hi tech flex spaces will eventually become the fastest growing and hottest area in commercial real estate in Johns Creek and Alpharetta.
I am constantly learning myself. That $210k property was bit of a risk as 99% of the homes in the subdivision are 4 bedroom SFRs. Rather than having the den upstairs, I asked the builder to convert the den into a 5th bedroom and I was concerned that it may look too crowded on the second floor, but it turned out very nice.
I had 10 calls for this 5 bed per 1 call I would get on the 4 bed. Some markets 3 bedroom are high in demand. For this particular market, 5 bedroom single family homes were high in demand for tenants. It took me 4 days to lease that 5 bedroom for $1700 which makes me think that I priced it too low.
I am trying to learn the commercial space for Hi tech office spaces in Johns Creek. First time I have seen these flex spaces were in Irvine where they are a hybrid between industrial and office commerical space with low ceilings. The new District of downtown Johns Creek will have these startup flex spaces in their commercial district.
There are a lot of first generation Indian IT professionals on H1 Visas here where their American dream is to start their own software companies. They will eventually need these small startup flex spaces. I remember the cheapest flex space rental for these type of unit in Irvine was off of Portola Parkway and Hammond Drive for about $2000 / month triple net for about 1500 square of space 10 years ago. I remember that these units were never vacant as every startup wanted this entry level flex space with the Irvine business address.
Over the last 10 to 15 years, I believe that our economy has transformed from a product based market to an infomation based market. In my opinion, these hi tech flex spaces will eventually become the fastest growing and hottest area in commercial real estate in Johns Creek and Alpharetta.
momopi said:
panda
Well-known member
Below are the most updated MSA data. As of April 2016, Atlanta is currently 5.2% below the July 2007 peak. Note that real estate prices in Las Vegas are dead last which is still currently 36% below the last peak value.
7 MSA are currently ahead of Atlanta in the following order.
1. Denver 16.4% above the previous peak
2. Dallas 13.9% above the previous peak
3. Portland 6.5% above the previous peak
4. San Francisco 4.2% above the previous peak
5. Seattle 2.5% above the pevious peak
6. Charlotte 2.3% above the previous peak
7. Boston 2.3% above the previous peak
7 MSA are currently ahead of Atlanta in the following order.
1. Denver 16.4% above the previous peak
2. Dallas 13.9% above the previous peak
3. Portland 6.5% above the previous peak
4. San Francisco 4.2% above the previous peak
5. Seattle 2.5% above the pevious peak
6. Charlotte 2.3% above the previous peak
7. Boston 2.3% above the previous peak
panda
Well-known member
Looking at the Census numbers, 5 of the Georgia Counties made the list of the 100 fastest growing counties in the nation. Forsyth County has now surpassed 200,000 in population, growing 36,927 between 2010 - 2015. Forsyth County's unemployment rate is less than 5% and is currently the wealthiest county in the state in terms of per capita income. Gwinnett County's population is now almost 900,000 with a population growth of 90,500 in the last five years. South Forsyth and North Gwinnett have been my favorite buy and hold markets in the last 5 years. Please note that not all counties in Georgia are growing in numbers and more than 50% of the growth areas concentrated in metro Atlanta. There are several counties in Georgia losing population. Below, I have attached the inventory chart of both Forsyth and Gwinnett County.
panda
Well-known member
Georgia still remains one of the most affordable places to live yet the rent prices continue to rise faster thatn the national averages.
Johns Creek remains the most expensive rental market city with a 2 bedroom median home price of $1500. Johns Creek had a year-to-year growth of 5% over the last 12 months. North Atlanta was the 2nd most expensive city, with a 2 bedroom median rent price at $1370. North Decatur had the 5th highest rents where a 2 bedroom median price tag was at $1320. North Decatur saw the 4th highest growth over the last year for 2 bedrooms at 11.2%.
Austell ranked as the city with the fastest annual rent growth at 16.5%, according to 2 bedroom figures. A 2 bedroom in Austell carries a median price tag of $700, while a 1-bedroom goes for $720.
Cumming had the 3rd fastest growth rate at 11.8%. A 2 bedroom in Cumming goes for a median price of $1120, while a 1 bedroom in Cumming costs $1100.
North Decatur shows the 4th fastest growth rate at 11.2% for 2 bedroom rents. The median price for a 1 bedroom in North Decatur is $1060, while a 2 bedroom goes for $1320. Below is a rental chart that shows the city with the highest rent vs the lowest rent.
Cornflakes
Active member
acpme said:
Good analysis acpme .
This prompted me to look up annual reports of both Irvine and JC. While JC is definitely growing and just like Irvine, its major sources of revenue are sales tax and property tax and those are going up. However, I found this statement in JC's annual report a bit concerning.
"By and large, however, Johns Creek is
largely a bedroom community with 80 percent of its land devoted to residential uses"
Source:http://www.johnscreekga.gov/JCGA/Media/PDF-Finance/2015-cafr.pdf
I am no expert but from a gut feel it seems to support your theory. I have lived in a town that feels like 80% residential use and while the town has grown, it does not compare by any means to Irvine.
panda
Well-known member
Cornflake. Try doing a similar research on Alpharetta, the sister city to johns creek. I believe the commercial vs residential tax base is more like 65% / 35% in Alpharetta where a lot of tech jobs are located.
The push for the new commercial district of johns creek is to increase its commercial tax base up to 35% from 20%. Johns creek city was simply formed by taking the most affluent parts of Suwanee, Alpharetta, and Duluth and Turning into a city 10 years ago. A similar apples to apples comparison of Irvine in the 80s is the undeveloped land of Forsyth county as a whole. Forsyth county is the wealthiest county in Georgia and the 11th fastest county in the nation. The county is taking steps to slow the down the development to control growth as the population is growing very quickly. I am starting to see several developments in south Forsyth getting delayed with rigorous inspections and delayed issuances of COs and permits making it difficult for builders.
Information on Forsyth County.
Forsyth County is the 11th fastest county in the United Stateshttp://www.forsythnews.com/archives/29791/
Forsyth County is the 25th wealthiest county in the nationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
Forsyth County is the richest and healthiest county in Georgiahttp://www.ajc.com/news/business/forsyth-georgias-richest-county-and-its-healtiest-/nkkhc/
Population Growth for Forsyth County, GA and Irvine, California. Forsyth County is trailing behind Irvine in terms of population growth by 5 years. In 2010, Irvine's population was 212k which is the 2015 estimate population of Forsyth County in 2015. Looking at the similar growth percentage of 21%, Forsyth County's population is esimated to be at 256k in 2020 which is where Irvine's population is at in 2015.
The push for the new commercial district of johns creek is to increase its commercial tax base up to 35% from 20%. Johns creek city was simply formed by taking the most affluent parts of Suwanee, Alpharetta, and Duluth and Turning into a city 10 years ago. A similar apples to apples comparison of Irvine in the 80s is the undeveloped land of Forsyth county as a whole. Forsyth county is the wealthiest county in Georgia and the 11th fastest county in the nation. The county is taking steps to slow the down the development to control growth as the population is growing very quickly. I am starting to see several developments in south Forsyth getting delayed with rigorous inspections and delayed issuances of COs and permits making it difficult for builders.
Information on Forsyth County.
Forsyth County is the 11th fastest county in the United Stateshttp://www.forsythnews.com/archives/29791/
Forsyth County is the 25th wealthiest county in the nationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States
Forsyth County is the richest and healthiest county in Georgiahttp://www.ajc.com/news/business/forsyth-georgias-richest-county-and-its-healtiest-/nkkhc/
Population Growth for Forsyth County, GA and Irvine, California. Forsyth County is trailing behind Irvine in terms of population growth by 5 years. In 2010, Irvine's population was 212k which is the 2015 estimate population of Forsyth County in 2015. Looking at the similar growth percentage of 21%, Forsyth County's population is esimated to be at 256k in 2020 which is where Irvine's population is at in 2015.
panda
Well-known member
New Gated Swim / Tennis Community in West Forsyth. Prices starting from $240k (Palmer Floor Plan)
Full Photos:https://www.dropbox.com/sh/mmm05tn3p2uy4mw/AABJ84Zsnw1fsOE-_hMTJa3aa?dl=0
1st Floor : 1107 sq/ft
2nd Floor : 1298 sq/ft
Total 2405 sq/ft
Full Photos:https://www.dropbox.com/sh/mmm05tn3p2uy4mw/AABJ84Zsnw1fsOE-_hMTJa3aa?dl=0
1st Floor : 1107 sq/ft
2nd Floor : 1298 sq/ft
Total 2405 sq/ft
irvineshadow
New member
Panda's post make me want to pack up and move to Georgia, if nothing else.
Perspective
Well-known member
irvineshadow said:
Sort of like how "Fixer Upper" on HGTV fools you into believing Waco TX might be a nice place to live.