Johns Creek Homes and Real Estate
- Thread starter panda
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Hey Panda --- little birdie told me you were back; great to hear from you and glad to hear things are going well in Atlanta. Funny thing, I know two separate families (both Korean) that have also made the move to the Atlanta area in the past couple of years --- one family from Irvine, the other Torrance. And they are non-IHB/TI people, so discovered the same thing you did about that Atlanta completely on their own. But I did tell them about you after the fact. You and they are a perfect example that personal paradise can be found anywhere.
I remember well that day you and Scott came to visit my office. Was great to meet you in person way back when. I believe it was shortly after that I executed my own escape route to the opposite side of Southern California, and have never regretted that move. I know you love to look at homes, if you are interested, check out some of the new home inventory in my neighborhood. Looks a lot like Irvine. Except for the price. And view. And the K-8 Korean immersion school the little Panda's could be attending
http://www.liveatporterranch.com/
http://www.liveatporterranch.com/residences
The prices are also high in potter ranch. Also, it's so hot over there, and potential fire area. I think Simi Valley is better than Porter Ranch.
When calculating the yield for both capital appreciation and cash flow the following are the top markets for 2015. Atlanta metro ranks in the top 5.
Above is the chart showing the markets showing the lowest return when factoring in both cash flow and property appreciation.
Atlanta metro ranks #8 in terms of housing value appreciation again the top 10 metro markets that have seen highest prices increase in 2015.
Above we are looking at the metro city markets that is offering the best CAP rates for cash flow. The best cash flow markets do not necessarily mean that it is also the best market for appreciation. I see a good balance of both appreciation and cash flow in the Atlanta market. Atlanta metro ranks #6 as the best CAP rate housing market for the buy and hold SFR investor.
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
panda
Well-known member
Hi SoCal, Wow you are still here huh? Irvine Housing Blog was my first exposure to social media even before I heard of Facebook, so it is like a weird invisible magnet that continues to bring me back to this site. 
I see that your two boys are getting big too. Doesn't time just fly? My boys are now 5 and in kindergarten at Johns Creek Elementary School.
Remember when you told me your experience growing up in Diamond Bar as a kid and the demographics of the area changed so quickly? Check out the demographic changes in John Creek Elementary just in the past 5 years. Back in 2011 when just moved here, 30% of the student profile of Johns Creek Elementary were Asians and today there are more Asian students than the White students. The demographic profile is just like that of Woodbury Elementary back in 2007.
Anyways good to see both you and IHO still here
Source:http://www.schooldigger.com/go/GA/schools/0222003685/school.aspx
I see that your two boys are getting big too. Doesn't time just fly? My boys are now 5 and in kindergarten at Johns Creek Elementary School. Remember when you told me your experience growing up in Diamond Bar as a kid and the demographics of the area changed so quickly? Check out the demographic changes in John Creek Elementary just in the past 5 years. Back in 2011 when just moved here, 30% of the student profile of Johns Creek Elementary were Asians and today there are more Asian students than the White students. The demographic profile is just like that of Woodbury Elementary back in 2007.
Anyways good to see both you and IHO still here
Source:http://www.schooldigger.com/go/GA/schools/0222003685/school.aspx
SoCal said:
SoCal said:
panda
Well-known member
I am going to talk to you guys about how I analyze my data and the lens I see through for my real estate analysis. We will first take a macro level look and start drilling down. Each major metro city is like a Blue Chip fortune 500 company stock. Let's say that LA is Walt Disney and Atlanta is Coca Cola. The two markets are different as LA and Orange County are huge counties whereas in Atlanta metro there are many smaller counties. In Atlanta metro #3 and #2 can be reversed as it is possible that multiple counties can be in one city whereas all cities are within either LA or Orange County.
1) Blue Chip - Metro MSA level (i.e Atlanta metro vs Los Angeles metro)
2) Large Cap - County Level (i.e. Orange County vs Cobb / Fosyth / Fulton / Gwinnett County)
3) Mid Cap - City Level (i.e. Irvine vs Johns Creek )
4) Small Cap - High School Cluster Level (Univerity, Irvine, Northwood High Clusters vs Northview, Chattahoochee, Johns Creek High Cluster)
5) Micro Cap - Subdivision Level: Woodbury, Northwood, Stonegate, Turtle Ridge vs St Marlo Country Club, Laurel Springs Country Club, Old Atlanta Club, Windemere.
In the chart above you can see the appreciation performance of LA real estate and Atlanta real estate and S&P 500 dating back to 1991. What is interesting is that after mortgage & real estate meltdown from 2006 - 2011, both the Atlanta market and the LA market are appreciating at simliar rates. What is important to understand is that the Case Shilller is just an index average whcih mean half the cities will outperform this index and half the cities will under perform this index. Usually the homes located in "A" and "B" asset classes within the metro city will outperform this index.
In the chart above, Atlanta's real estate market peaked in July 2007 and crashed down to 1996 price level in March 2012. As of August 2015 according to the Case Shiller data, the Atlanta metro market is still 7.6% below the last July 2007 peak. The "A and B class real estate " assets corrected less, but the lower "C and D" assets had corrected as much as 50% - 60% at the bottom of the market.
In Chart above you can see that home values in Gwinnett county has fully recovered to its 2007 peak value. Home prices in Gwinnnett County has doubled in value from 2012 - 2015.
Forsyth County is wealthiest county in the state of Georiga. It is also the 6 fastest growing county in the country. The top 10/10/10 school clusters are concentrated in South Forsyth County. Forsyth county has the lowest unemployment rate in the state of under 5%.
1) Blue Chip - Metro MSA level (i.e Atlanta metro vs Los Angeles metro)
2) Large Cap - County Level (i.e. Orange County vs Cobb / Fosyth / Fulton / Gwinnett County)
3) Mid Cap - City Level (i.e. Irvine vs Johns Creek )
4) Small Cap - High School Cluster Level (Univerity, Irvine, Northwood High Clusters vs Northview, Chattahoochee, Johns Creek High Cluster)
5) Micro Cap - Subdivision Level: Woodbury, Northwood, Stonegate, Turtle Ridge vs St Marlo Country Club, Laurel Springs Country Club, Old Atlanta Club, Windemere.
In the chart above you can see the appreciation performance of LA real estate and Atlanta real estate and S&P 500 dating back to 1991. What is interesting is that after mortgage & real estate meltdown from 2006 - 2011, both the Atlanta market and the LA market are appreciating at simliar rates. What is important to understand is that the Case Shilller is just an index average whcih mean half the cities will outperform this index and half the cities will under perform this index. Usually the homes located in "A" and "B" asset classes within the metro city will outperform this index.
In the chart above, Atlanta's real estate market peaked in July 2007 and crashed down to 1996 price level in March 2012. As of August 2015 according to the Case Shiller data, the Atlanta metro market is still 7.6% below the last July 2007 peak. The "A and B class real estate " assets corrected less, but the lower "C and D" assets had corrected as much as 50% - 60% at the bottom of the market.
In Chart above you can see that home values in Gwinnett county has fully recovered to its 2007 peak value. Home prices in Gwinnnett County has doubled in value from 2012 - 2015.
Forsyth County is wealthiest county in the state of Georiga. It is also the 6 fastest growing county in the country. The top 10/10/10 school clusters are concentrated in South Forsyth County. Forsyth county has the lowest unemployment rate in the state of under 5%.
panda
Well-known member
There are approximately 500 high schools in the state of Georgia. In the northern suburbs of Atlanta, school clusters are among the top 3 drives for real estate appreciation, low inventory levels, resale value, and demand.
Following are the ranking of the top ten high school clusters in the state.
1) Gwinnett School of Mathmatics, Science, and Technology - Lawerenceville, GA
2) Columbus High School - Columbus, GA
3) Northview High School - Johns Creek, GA
4) Lambert High School - South Forsyth, GA
5) Johns Creek High School - Johns Creek, GA
6) Walton High School - East Cobb, GA
7) North Gwinnett High School - North Gwinnett, GA
8) South Forsyth High School - South Forsyth, GA
9) Brookwood High School - Snellville-Grayson Township, GA
10) Davidson Magnet School - Augusta, GA
Source:https://k12.niche.com/rankings/public-high-schools/best-overall/s/georgia/
Following are the ranking of the top ten high school clusters in the state.
1) Gwinnett School of Mathmatics, Science, and Technology - Lawerenceville, GA
2) Columbus High School - Columbus, GA
3) Northview High School - Johns Creek, GA
4) Lambert High School - South Forsyth, GA
5) Johns Creek High School - Johns Creek, GA
6) Walton High School - East Cobb, GA
7) North Gwinnett High School - North Gwinnett, GA
8) South Forsyth High School - South Forsyth, GA
9) Brookwood High School - Snellville-Grayson Township, GA
10) Davidson Magnet School - Augusta, GA
Source:https://k12.niche.com/rankings/public-high-schools/best-overall/s/georgia/
panda
Well-known member
WTTCHMN,
Sorry, I don't have that information on hand. I do however have the % high school acceptance to our two flag ship public universities: Georgia Tech and University of Georiga. These are our version of UCLA and Berkley which I hear the acceptance rate is in the mid teens these days. In Georgia, we have a thing called the HOPE scholarship where the state will cover your chidren's tuition (if you are a Georgia resident) if they maintain a certain GPA in high school. I do however have a best friend who went to Harvard, and he is definitely changing the way he is raising his children compared to the way his parents raised him.
Sorry, I don't have that information on hand. I do however have the % high school acceptance to our two flag ship public universities: Georgia Tech and University of Georiga. These are our version of UCLA and Berkley which I hear the acceptance rate is in the mid teens these days. In Georgia, we have a thing called the HOPE scholarship where the state will cover your chidren's tuition (if you are a Georgia resident) if they maintain a certain GPA in high school. I do however have a best friend who went to Harvard, and he is definitely changing the way he is raising his children compared to the way his parents raised him.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Does Georgia use Common Core?
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
Panda,
Use stats like Emory, Vanderbilt, UNC, UVA, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, College of Wm and Mary and Duke within the direct sphere of influence. These are all Ivy compatible and 2nd tier household brands for FCBs.
Use stats like Emory, Vanderbilt, UNC, UVA, Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, College of Wm and Mary and Duke within the direct sphere of influence. These are all Ivy compatible and 2nd tier household brands for FCBs.
panda
Well-known member
IHS,
I am not sure how to get the stats of admission to the 2nd tier Ivy compatible universities from the top ten GA high schools, but i will see what i can come up with. Below you can see the 2016 top university rankings published by US NEWs. Our top private school is Emory and our top two public schools are Tech and UGA. You can see how these schools rank compared to the California state schools. My personal opinon is that if your son or daugther can get into UCLA (18% acceptance) or Berkeley (16% acceptance), most likely he or she will get accepted into a second tier Ivy school.
(Perhaps this topic should discussed in a different thread in the Education section.)
IHS, back when I was a senior in high school, I did apply to UCLA for their business/econ program. I do believe that university rankings can change over time. One my friends in high school got accepted to USC back then with a 1000 SAT score out of 1600 and a 2.9 GPA. I think the ranking of USC was right where UGA is today at 61. As all of you know today USC is recognized as part of the top 25 universities which is now as competitive to get in as UCLA. The real estate investor side of me looks at demographics very carefully. Even though UGA is an unrecognized college brand that no FCBs have ever heard of, I know that UGA is going to be a rising star which will compete in the same playing field with Tech and UNC in the next 10 years, sort of like what USC was to UCLA 15 years ago.
Source:http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities/page+6
Rank 20 - UC Berkeley
Rank 21 - Emory University
Rank 23 - UCLA
Rank 23 - USC - Tied
Rank 36 - Georgia Tech
Rank 37 - UC Santa Barbara
Rank 38 - UC Irvine
Rank 39 - UC San Diego
Rank 61 - UGA
IHS, I am sure we both know that being a product of a top elite Ivy university does not guarantee success as an adult. My best friend is a Harvard alumn and he interviews many prospective students in his region. He tells me that Harvard is overated by tiger moms and dads and he has the right to say this as he is a product of Harvard.
We both had a very different upbringing though. He told me that his parents were not wealthy and they did not have cars growing up. He told me the way he programmed his mind back then was that by studying hard and getting straight "A"s and being the top of his high school class, it was equilvalent to putting food on the table. He told me that he was so hungry that he would study til 4am every day during his high school years. I ask him how come he doesn't have that same fire in the belly he had when was he was in high school and told me that he is content now and makes enough money to put a roof over his head and provide for his family.
I, on the other hand had parents who really didn't care whether I did well or bad in school. To be honest, I don't think they even cared if I went to college or not. I guess I had no choice but to be self motivated. I ended up graduating with a Finance degree at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan and later got my MBA with a real estate investment / finance concentration. Back then looking forward, I had no idea how my education would be applicable to the real world, but looking back now, I can see how all the dots of my education and experiences are starting to connect with one another. I guess am very fortunate that I all the books I read today and prior education is directly applicable to my full time career.
Sometimes if you are uncertain about what your passion is, think about all the books you read when you were in your early 20s.. What did you think about all the time back then?? Most likely, this is your passion. It is important that we all try to find our passion early on in life, otherwise any sane person would give up when the times get really tough.
I think what is really important for us as parents is to help our children identify their strengthen and passion and help them grow in that capacity rather than turning them into robots.
I am not sure how to get the stats of admission to the 2nd tier Ivy compatible universities from the top ten GA high schools, but i will see what i can come up with. Below you can see the 2016 top university rankings published by US NEWs. Our top private school is Emory and our top two public schools are Tech and UGA. You can see how these schools rank compared to the California state schools. My personal opinon is that if your son or daugther can get into UCLA (18% acceptance) or Berkeley (16% acceptance), most likely he or she will get accepted into a second tier Ivy school.
(Perhaps this topic should discussed in a different thread in the Education section.)
IHS, back when I was a senior in high school, I did apply to UCLA for their business/econ program. I do believe that university rankings can change over time. One my friends in high school got accepted to USC back then with a 1000 SAT score out of 1600 and a 2.9 GPA. I think the ranking of USC was right where UGA is today at 61. As all of you know today USC is recognized as part of the top 25 universities which is now as competitive to get in as UCLA. The real estate investor side of me looks at demographics very carefully. Even though UGA is an unrecognized college brand that no FCBs have ever heard of, I know that UGA is going to be a rising star which will compete in the same playing field with Tech and UNC in the next 10 years, sort of like what USC was to UCLA 15 years ago.
Source:http://colleges.usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities/page+6
Rank 20 - UC Berkeley
Rank 21 - Emory University
Rank 23 - UCLA
Rank 23 - USC - Tied
Rank 36 - Georgia Tech
Rank 37 - UC Santa Barbara
Rank 38 - UC Irvine
Rank 39 - UC San Diego
Rank 61 - UGA
IHS, I am sure we both know that being a product of a top elite Ivy university does not guarantee success as an adult. My best friend is a Harvard alumn and he interviews many prospective students in his region. He tells me that Harvard is overated by tiger moms and dads and he has the right to say this as he is a product of Harvard.
We both had a very different upbringing though. He told me that his parents were not wealthy and they did not have cars growing up. He told me the way he programmed his mind back then was that by studying hard and getting straight "A"s and being the top of his high school class, it was equilvalent to putting food on the table. He told me that he was so hungry that he would study til 4am every day during his high school years. I ask him how come he doesn't have that same fire in the belly he had when was he was in high school and told me that he is content now and makes enough money to put a roof over his head and provide for his family.
I, on the other hand had parents who really didn't care whether I did well or bad in school. To be honest, I don't think they even cared if I went to college or not. I guess I had no choice but to be self motivated. I ended up graduating with a Finance degree at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan and later got my MBA with a real estate investment / finance concentration. Back then looking forward, I had no idea how my education would be applicable to the real world, but looking back now, I can see how all the dots of my education and experiences are starting to connect with one another. I guess am very fortunate that I all the books I read today and prior education is directly applicable to my full time career.
Sometimes if you are uncertain about what your passion is, think about all the books you read when you were in your early 20s.. What did you think about all the time back then?? Most likely, this is your passion. It is important that we all try to find our passion early on in life, otherwise any sane person would give up when the times get really tough.
I think what is really important for us as parents is to help our children identify their strengthen and passion and help them grow in that capacity rather than turning them into robots.
irvinerealtor
Well-known member
Welcome back James,
Good to see you posting again and even better to hear that your business is doing well. I recall our visits when you were out here and getting you a meeting with the mayor and some of the other IHB folks at the time. Even back then you were very targeted on the demographics trends for Irvine and you were like a kid in a candy store.
Best wishes to you and your growing family, and continued success in chasing your dreams.
-Scott
Good to see you posting again and even better to hear that your business is doing well. I recall our visits when you were out here and getting you a meeting with the mayor and some of the other IHB folks at the time. Even back then you were very targeted on the demographics trends for Irvine and you were like a kid in a candy store.
Best wishes to you and your growing family, and continued success in chasing your dreams.
-Scott
panda
Well-known member
Scott,
It is good to hear from you as well and I can't believe you are still here. I do remember you scheduled a time for us to meet the Irvine mayor Sukhee Kang and we met up with "CK" aka Patrick Star afterwards. That was very kind and thoughtful of you. You were the first person to show me the case shiller data in the early IHB years. I remember you put together these case shiller excel spreadsheet comparing the index for all the major cities. I also remember when you sold IPO's home in West Irvine and you showcased the entire listing process from beginning to end on IHB... that was pretty impressive
Best wishes to you and your growing family as well. You were best original Irvine agent back in the ole IHB days and I believe that you are still the best Irvine agent today.
It is good to hear from you as well and I can't believe you are still here. I do remember you scheduled a time for us to meet the Irvine mayor Sukhee Kang and we met up with "CK" aka Patrick Star afterwards. That was very kind and thoughtful of you. You were the first person to show me the case shiller data in the early IHB years. I remember you put together these case shiller excel spreadsheet comparing the index for all the major cities. I also remember when you sold IPO's home in West Irvine and you showcased the entire listing process from beginning to end on IHB... that was pretty impressive
Best wishes to you and your growing family as well. You were best original Irvine agent back in the ole IHB days and I believe that you are still the best Irvine agent today.
PatrickStar
New member
Panda said:
Hey Panda --- little birdie told me you were back; great to hear from you and glad to hear things are going well in Atlanta. Funny thing, I know two separate families (both Korean) that have also made the move to the Atlanta area in the past couple of years --- one family from Irvine, the other Torrance. And they are non-IHB/TI people, so discovered the same thing you did about that Atlanta completely on their own. But I did tell them about you after the fact. You and they are a perfect example that personal paradise can be found anywhere.
I remember well that day you and Scott came to visit my office. Was great to meet you in person way back when. I believe it was shortly after that I executed my own escape route to the opposite side of Southern California, and have never regretted that move. I know you love to look at homes, if you are interested, check out some of the new home inventory in my neighborhood. Looks a lot like Irvine. Except for the price. And view. And the K-8 Korean immersion school the little Panda's could be attending
http://www.liveatporterranch.com/
http://www.liveatporterranch.com/residences
PatrickStar said:Panda said:
Hey Panda --- little birdie told me you were back; great to hear from you and glad to hear things are going well in Atlanta. Funny thing, I know two separate families (both Korean) that have also made the move to the Atlanta area in the past couple of years --- one family from Irvine, the other Torrance. And they are non-IHB/TI people, so discovered the same thing you did about that Atlanta completely on their own. But I did tell them about you after the fact. You and they are a perfect example that personal paradise can be found anywhere.
I remember well that day you and Scott came to visit my office. Was great to meet you in person way back when. I believe it was shortly after that I executed my own escape route to the opposite side of Southern California, and have never regretted that move. I know you love to look at homes, if you are interested, check out some of the new home inventory in my neighborhood. Looks a lot like Irvine. Except for the price. And view. And the K-8 Korean immersion school the little Panda's could be attending
http://www.liveatporterranch.com/
http://www.liveatporterranch.com/residences
The prices are also high in potter ranch. Also, it's so hot over there, and potential fire area. I think Simi Valley is better than Porter Ranch.
panda
Well-known member
When calculating the yield for both capital appreciation and cash flow the following are the top markets for 2015. Atlanta metro ranks in the top 5.
Above is the chart showing the markets showing the lowest return when factoring in both cash flow and property appreciation.
panda
Well-known member
Atlanta metro ranks #8 in terms of housing value appreciation again the top 10 metro markets that have seen highest prices increase in 2015.
Above we are looking at the metro city markets that is offering the best CAP rates for cash flow. The best cash flow markets do not necessarily mean that it is also the best market for appreciation. I see a good balance of both appreciation and cash flow in the Atlanta market. Atlanta metro ranks #6 as the best CAP rate housing market for the buy and hold SFR investor.
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
Interesting chart! all these meant someone else's big loss is your gain. The huge jump also means these cities are subject to huge loss and riskier for fluctuation of prices. Irvine has very little jump because prices did not fall much. This chart is for flippers/ investor with no intention to staying for long where as Irvine is ideal for those docking their assets.