Johns Creek Homes and Real Estate

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You really need to get your facts straight. Google "Joan Irvine Smith".

Baby Irvine said:
To make the greatest amount of money from real estate in a relatively short period of time, you must understand the Path of Progress. This is where the greatest amount of building and development is taking place. If you had looked at a map of southern california 40 years ago, you would have seen that Los Angeles and San Diego were the two largest cities. Between these two giants were hundreds of smaller cities and towns, and millions of acres of farms, orange groves, and undeveloped land. The path of Progress indicates that soon there would be little bare land between these two great cities, 120 miles apart. Los Angeles and Long Beach moved south, and San Diego moved north. Huge fortunes were made by investors who followed this path of progress.

One man, Donald Bren, became a billionaire by buying up thousands of acres of bare land in a once sleepy agricultural county called Orange County. Orange County was smack dab in the middle of this Path of Progress, equidistant between Los Angeles and San Diego.There have been hundreds of other Path of Progress across the United States, though many are smaller and created only a few millionaires.

The  Path of Progress is one of the key concepts I want you guys to understand and discover how to recognize where it is going, how to find its boundaries, and a method to determine how far it will reach. This how you  will be able to target your real estate investing with strong accuracy.
 
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Let me give you guys an example of three financial returns on an hypothetical investment purchase. The chart above is by a investor author written in 2005. The mortgage rates where in the 7% then, so the equity build up would be much faster than the chart in today's environment. The chart assumes that the investor purchases 1 property a year for the next 10 years. The purchase price that you see in the chart is very similar to the market I am currently investing in, and the appreciation is much higher than the 6.67% appreciation I am using from the chart. Let's assume year 1 is considered 2011 and year 2 is considered 2012, etc.


Let's say you purchased a property in 2011 for $180,000 in year 1. You put $36,000 down and financed $144,000 30 year fixed at 3.75%. Let's assume that you closed on June 15, 2011 and you had a tenant already secured for July 1st, 2011 move in.

Annual Cash Flow
$1600/rent
$666.89 : mortgage
$35 : Insurance
$50 : HOA
Taxes 1%: $150

$698.11/monthly cash flow: This number is assuming immediate tenant occupancy and new construction purchase with $0 maintenance costs the first year since the there is a 1 year maintenance warranty by the builder.

$8377.32 / annual cash flow - 23.27%

Annual Debt Pay Down:
$144,000 - $141,127 = $2873/36,000 = 7.98%

Annual Appreciation
Let's assume that the property appreciates 6.67% like the chart shows. The property purchased in 2011 for $180,000 is now appraising at $192,000 in 2012.

$192,000 - $180,000 = $12,000/$36,000 = 33.33%

Annual return from 2011 - 2012: 64.58%

This number is not including the depreciation tax benefit that you receive every year. Over the long run, you will see that the cash flow and the amortization return is small compared to the return you get from appreciation and depreciation if you are correct in investing and identifying an emerging real estate market.
 
Baby Irvine said:
One man, Donald Bren, became a billionaire by buying up thousands of acres of bare land in a once sleepy agricultural county called Orange County. Orange County was smack dab in the middle of this Path of Progress, equidistant between Los Angeles and San Diego.There have been hundreds of other Path of Progress across the United States, though many are smaller and created only a few millionaires.

from Wiki:

Bren built his first house in Newport Beach with a $10,000 loan, in 1958. He began his business career in 1958 when he founded the Bren Company, which built homes in Orange County, California. In 1963, he and two others started the Mission Viejo Company (MVC) and purchased 10,000 acres to plan and develop the city of Mission Viejo, California. Bren was President of MVC from 1963 to 1967. International Paper bought Bren Co. for $34 million in 1970, and then sold it back to Bren for $22 million in 1972 following the recession. Bren took the proceeds and in 1977 joined a group of investors to purchase the 146-year-old Irvine Company. Bren was the largest shareholder of the resulting consortium, owning 34.3% of the company and received the title of Vice-chair of the board. By 1983, he was the majority owner of the firm and was elected chairman of the board. By 1996, he had bought out all outstanding shares to become the sole owner.

 
jamboreedude said:
By 1996, he had bought out all outstanding shares to become the sole owner.
I remember owning shares in 1995-1996.  They were doing quite well and paid something like 7% dividend.  Wasn't too happy when he bought them back.
 
Trojan,

It is different from Irvine. Johns Creeks just took the most expensive real estate from Duluth, 30097, Suwanee, 30024, and Alpharetta 30022 and became Johns Creek. The path of progress is from Northview HS cluster, 30097 into Forsyth County. Forsyth County is where the path of progress is and is master planned. It is going to look absolutely beautiful in 20 years built in hills of the northern GA mountains. Within the Lambert HS School district there 5 of the elementary schools rank in the top 10 in the state.

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Forsyth is named the 6th fastest county:http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/real_estate/1006/gallery.fastest_growing_US_counties/6.html

Forsyth County is the 30th wealthiest county in the nation.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-income_counties_in_the_United_States

Wikipedia

In the early 19th century, the Johns Creek area was dotted with trading posts along the Chattahoochee River in what was then Cherokee Indian territory. The Cherokee nation was a confederacy of villages led by a chief. They were agrarian and lived in log homes. After Europeans settled in the area, the Cherokee developed an alphabet, and a legislature and judiciary patterned after the American model.

Some trading posts gradually became crossroads communities where pioneer families ? Rogers, McGinnis, Findley, Buice, Cowart, Medlock and others ? gathered to visit and sell their crops.

By 1820, the community of Sheltonville (now known as Shakerag) was a ferry crossing site, with the McGinnis Ferry and Rogers Ferry carrying people and livestock across the river for a small fee. Further south, the Nesbit Ferry did the same near another crossroads community known as Newtown.
In the 1820s, the discovery of gold in the foothills of Northeast Georgia inside the Cherokee Nation ? approximately 45 miles (72 km) north of today's Johns Creek ? led to America's first Gold Rush, the eventual takeover of the Cherokee Nation by the U.S. Government in 1830 and the subsequent forced exile ("The Trail of Tears") of Cherokee Indians to Oklahoma and other areas of the American West.

A few Cherokees remained, the most famous being Sarah Cordery (1785?1842), the half-blood Cherokee wife of pioneer John Rogers (1774?1851), and their 12 children. Rogers was a respected, influential plantation owner and colleague of President Andrew Jackson. Rogers' 1828 home ? today, a private residence in Johns Creek ? was an overnight stop-over for Jackson. Much later, the home was also visited by famed humorist Will Rogers, the great, great-nephew of John Rogers.

In 1831, much of the land in the former Cherokee Nation north of the Chattahoochee was joined into one big county called Cherokee. When Milton County was formed in 1858, the Johns Creek area was folded into it.
In the 1930s, during the Great Depression, Milton County was dissolved and all its land was absorbed into Fulton County.
The four main crossroad communities?Ocee, Newtown, Shakerag and Warsaw?remained the social, educational and business centers of rural, unincorporated northeast Fulton County. For the next 50 years, these communities helped bring a sense of identity to this largely undeveloped and under-populated area, as the nearby cities of Roswell, Alpharetta, Duluth and Suwanee and adjoining Forsyth and Gwinnett counties continued to grow and develop.
In 1981, a group of Georgia Institute of Technology graduates bought 1,700 acres (6.9 km2) of farm land and woods near McGinnis Ferry and Medlock Bridge Roads for a high-tech office park. The new office park was to mirror one built in 1970 in nearby Peachtree Corners, known as Technology Park/Atlanta. Spotting tiny Johns Creek on an old map, they named their mixed-use, master-planned community Technology Park/Johns Creek. This was to be the first reference to Johns Creek as a place. The area grew over the years to become the home of 200 companies ? many of them Fortune 500 firms ? with nearly 11,000 people spread over 6,000,000 square feet (560,000 m2) of office, retail and industrial space. With the jobs came houses and shopping centers, and the population increased to about 60,000.

By 2000, a grassroots movement to incorporate the Johns Creek area into a city was slowly developing. Residents wanted more control over issues such as traffic, growth, development and their quality of life. They also sought a level of service that was a challenge for the sprawling Fulton County to provide. Following the nearby city of Sandy Springs? successful incorporation in 2005, a legislative campaign was started to incorporate the Johns Creek community. House Bill 1321 was passed by the state legislature, signed by Gov. Sonny Perdue in March 2006, and approved by the residents of northeast Fulton County in a July 18, 2006 voter referendum. The city was named for a tributary that runs through the area.[3] In November 2006, the city's first elected officials were voted into office, with the City of Johns Creek becoming official December 1, 2006.
 
Baby Irvine said:
I will discuss how to identify an emerging real estate market in my next post and it has applied to my personal investment decisions.

I think it's so cool that through a site like this, members have the opportunity to "meet" someone like you. I don't know many people... ok, anyone... in my world who has abandoned their lives and everything that they are comfortable & familiar with to pursue their dreams. Not everybody has the courage to do that. It is not every day we come across someone like you. Some of us may get the itch but talk ourselves out of it. That's why it takes a special person to be an entrepreneur. I guess what I'm saying is that it is a pleasure to "know" you and be able to follow your posts over the years. You have such a bright future ahead of you. I hope you will continue to keep us posted on your adventures!
 
Baby Irvine said:
I know of someone who bought their first investment property at the age of 40 and after 25 years he has been able to build a portfolio of homes that generates $2,000 a month in passive income which equates to $240,000 a year at the age of 65.

Baby Irvine, it is great that you have the advantage of establishing yourself at a younger age to lay a foundation for when you're older. But, what advice would you have for somebody like the guy mentioned above - who may be buying their first investment property/ies later in life and does not have the same advantage of time on their side that you have? What, if anything, would you do differently?

Let's say you're in this scenario: You are currently in your mid-30s. Your grandfather is rich, 90, and has the sniffles. You want to be prepared for the day he passes away. It could be today or it could be in 10 years. (The money is not going to your parent first because that person does not want anything to do with it.) You have had a very long time to think about this, since you were young. You have a special fondness for real estate and have put all your mental effort into that for several years. What steps would you take to prepare? Or, would you simply cross that bridge when you come to it? How would your strategy change from age 30 to 40, 50<.
 
Caveat: You also live in O.C. While the idea of exploring emerging real estate markets anywhere in the country sounds great (and I give you kudos for!), the likelihood is you'll keep residence in O.C. I guess that restriction needs to go hand-in-hand with the "invest in your own backyard" rule.
 
Notice how many of the west coast regions have double digit returns. Portland, Seattle, Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Francisco, LA.

Atlanta stands alone with double digits anywhere in the midwest, east coast, southeast region and is the most undervalued compared to all the double digit west coast regions.
http://realestate.msn.com/blogs/blog--best-cities-to-invest-in-single-family-rentals- source:

Below is the top twenty markets to invest in single family rentals:

RANK
1. Memphis
2. Saginaw
3. Toledo, Ohio
4. Ocala, Fla.
5. LAS VEGAS
6. Palm Bay, Fla.
7. ATLANTA
8. Jacksonville, Fla.
9. Deltona, Fla.
10. Springfield, Mo.
11. Tampa, Fla.
12. Port St. Lucie, Fla.
13. Orlando, Fla.
14. Phoenix
15. Detroit
16. Lakeland, Fla.
17. Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.
18. Dayton, Ohio
19. Syracuse, N.Y.
20. Ogden, Utah

Anyone know if Irvine Renter is still flipping or buy and holding in Vegas?

Trojan, how have your single investments done in Vegas? Did you invest in Summerlin? What are some of the high schools that feed into Summerlin?

Las Vegas has the highest appreciation of 21% since last year.

USCTrojanCPA said:
Baby Irvine said:
What do you find interesting about this housing recovery map in the United States?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100424686
That Vegas had the highest price appreciation YoY.  :P
 
Trojan

I want to do some comparison (Price/Rent and cap rate) with an "Irvine" like city in Las Vegas to Johns Creek in terms of investments.

Tell me an emerging suburban city in Las Vegas with the following criteria so we can compare.

1. household income of $100k +
2. strong population growth greater 48+% in the last 10 years.
3. Asian population of the city make up of 20% or higher
4. High Schools ranked in the top 3% of Nevada
5. Strong job growth of fortune 500 companies relocating
6. Strong leadership and master planning in the city
7. Property taxes at 1.2% and lower
8. Land or permit restrictions for new construction
9. Appreciation of 20% + in the last 12 months.

What is the average median home price, average rent, appreciation YoY?

One of our star emerging cities in norther Atlanta suburbs is in South Forsyth, unincorporated land sitting right above Johns Creek. The appreciation YoY is 20% from last year April 2012.


 
But isn't that where the opportunity is?

Atlanta definitely has the ghetto areas with $50k SFRs where would be scared to drive at night. Then you have buckhead 15 minutes away from the ghetto areas.  Even in LA, you have beverly hills and drive 15 minutes east you have South Central. You have Santa Ana right next to Irvine.

Trojan, I went Atlanta for the first time in 2004, and the city and airport changed a lot in the last 9 years. The newly renovated Atlanta airport and newly built international terminal is truly world class. The city has changed so much for the good since 2004 and I'm starting to get the itch to start investing near the city: to invest in ghetto areas that will become beverly hills 15 years later. Real Estate investing is a lot like treasure hunting or mining for gold in dirt.

When I think about a ghetto airport... I think of LAX.

where suburban poverty is skyrocketing (Vegas isn't too far behind)....http://homes.yahoo.com/news/cities-where-suburban-poverty-is-skyrocketing-213342422.html
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Trojan,

Remember when Irvine Renter started to blog on IHB about his real estate flipping venture in Las Vegas with Shevy back in 2010 or 2011? A lot of people ridiculed him calling me "Larry" Las Vegas. I am not sure if he just flipped the homes or if he bought the homes and rented them out, but looking back now, I think he is a genius..... he saw the opportunity when everyone laughed at him. I would say his timing was perfect to monetize the Vegas market.

Sometimes, if you think you have a good investment idea and your family and friends all laughs at you. It many cases, it turns to be a good investment. I really welcome these type of headline news about Atlanta because that is time you want to invest:

#1 poverty city
#1 foreclosure city in the nation
#1 The largest year over year drop in real estate prices in the nation

 
 
Baby Irvine said:
Anyone know if Irvine Renter is still flipping or buy and holding in Vegas?

Baby Irvine, this is what I've read:

"I recently pulled comps for all the properties owned by my funds. The rate of appreciation on these properties is remarkable, particularly on the low-end. I strongly believed house prices in Las Vegas would appreciate because they were ridiculously undervalued. I purchased a property in 2012 for $10,000 less than its 1992 purchase price. That?s crazy. However, I didn?t believe prices would appreciate for another few years, and quite frankly, I wish they weren?t. There aren?t many deals in Las Vegas, and the ones that are out there don?t provide the great cashflow returns of the deals I bought from 2010-2012. Since I don?t plan to sell any properties, appreciation is irrelevant. I would gladly surrender the appreciation to date for a chance to buy more properties at 2011?s prices." - Larry on "The Housing Bears Are Rightfully Frustrated"

Excerpt from his resume:

"Entrepreneurial Ventures (Ongoing, Part-time)

Real Estate Investment Fund Manager, July 2010 to present
Apple Blossom Arbitrage, LLC and Radiant Homes II, LLC, Irvine, CA
Raised $2 million in private equity to both flip and buy-and-hold single-family detached homes in Las Vegas, NV.
Acquired more than 50 auction properties, renovated them, and either sold or rented for long-term hold...
"
 
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