Irvine should be grateful

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garfangle_IHB

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<p>Irvine is in a great position to rebound from the California home price collapse because of its foundation of good schools, low crime, and a neighborly culture remains intact despite the speculative asset bubble in housing. There are many saavy, well-off folk of both current residents and outsiders who will quickly snap up distressed properties once their prices return to fundamental levels of income supportablility. Unlike, say many communities in Michigan or Ohio, Irvine has enough well-paying jobs and modern infrastructure that it will not become blighted even though home values may well be cut in half from their current prices.</p>

<p>Sure, Irvine was at the epicenter of the mortgage mania, but I think the talent level of its workers is high enough that even former brokers, agents, and builders will not be hard pressed to find jobs. Of those that do leave, Irvine is a nice enough community that there will be plenty of new folk wanting to move in, especially as housing costs fall. TIC was the main beneficiary of the housing bubble as it unloaded its land at inflated prices and will be the business most hurt as home prices deflate, but Donald Bren can handle it as a billionaire several times over.</p>
 
That kind of reminded me of 1984. According to the ideas about Irvine's desirability set forth here, what exactly will makes it's recovery so much better. I think it's desirability index is solid, and will remain that way-- and probably doesn't have a lot of move to go much higher-- a "ceiling effect." My take: everyone wanted it, everyone wants it, it's leveraged to hell and it will crash accordingly.





Watch out, Watermarke, 'cause the Soul Brother's moving in, and he's going to do it for less than 200 grand in 2010.
 
I wonder if the lack of tax revenue from all of the collapsed mortgage companies that were located in Irvine will have any kind of impact on the city. I also wonder how much crime will increase with all of the layoffs in the housing industry. The other day I saw something I almost never see in Irvine - the police were arresting and impounding a car from a white guy. I couldn't help but wonder if he was a former mortgage broker or real estate agent.
 
<p>abc123,</p>

<p>I saw something similar to that last week. The Irvine police had his siren lights on while the tow truck guy pulled the Mercedes onto a flat bed truck. From what I saw it wasn't an accident and the car was a newer model. So it couldn't have been broken down. And the siren lights would only mean...hmm.</p>
 
garfangle,





I'm confused, by the title of your thread it sounds like a generalization is being made that Irvine is "not" grateful. If this is true, what gives you the impression that people who live in Irvine are not grateful?
 
<p>biuniu,</p>

<p>What I am saying is that as the downturn comes into full force over the next few years, Irvine is positioned better than most impacted communities to recover quickly because of its strong culture, values, and infrastructure. Would you rather be living in Detroit or Irvine? Irvine, for sure.</p>
 
<p>Irvine Soul Brother,</p>

<p>In 1984 novel Orwell's big brother control over the society is the metaphor of TIC controlling this Utopia.</p>

<p>ABC 123,</p>

<p>In most urban cities police like to harass the minorities.( sarcasm)</p>
 
Garf-- I think the pricing disparity between Irvine and a place like Detroit should hold. Irvine will probably be just about as much more desirable to live in than Detroit five or ten years from now.





BK, I like that read. More specifically, I was thinking of the passage where there is some announcement about everyone getting more chocolate, and then they actually get less. His post reminded me of that kind of cognitive dissonance meets a bait and switch that was a theme in 1984. Either way, yeah, I do think TIC will have to engage in a great deal of this kind of talk to "remind" folks how good they have it (when they sell their current inventory for much less than what others previously bought it for).
 
<p>Irv Soul Bro,</p>

<p>I know that Irvine and Detroit are in different leagues price-wise, but not percentage decline-wise. A 2000 sqft home home in Irvine might go for $700K, while the same property would go for $170K in Detroit. However, I expect in early 2010 you could see the price in Irvine at $380K, a 45.6% fall, while the price in Detroit might be $110K, a 35.3% reduction. While owning in Detroit might be less costly from peak to trough than Irvine, Detroit is in secular decline, while Irvine has still its brightest prospects ahead of it.</p>
 
Okay, I can see where you're coming from with the relative price declines, Garf. I guess the question would remain if outsiders with money would indeed move in with the numbers to bolster Irvine after the dust settles on the looming crash. The fantasy of outsiders swooping in has been a cornerstone of bull theory, and I don't know that there would be enough money coming in across the board.
 
<p>Reason,</p>

<p>Found on ZipRealty:</p>

<p>


51 SCONSET LANE Irvine, 92620 $629,999


Beds: 3 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,000 | Lot Size: N/A


Year Built: 2000 | Listing Date: 07/16/07





22 BUTTERFLY Irvine, 92604 $639,000


Beds: 3 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,141 | Lot Size: 2,720 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1976 | Listing Date: 06/26/07</p>

<p>14 REDWOOD TREE LANE Irvine, 92612 $675,000


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,200 | Lot Size: 3,000 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1969 | Listing Date: 04/10/07





14911 SUMAC AVENUE Irvine, 92606 $689,900


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,350 | Lot Size: 5,000 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1972 | Listing Date: 06/06/07</p>

<p>24 ATLANTA Irvine, 92620 $699,900


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,011 | Lot Size: 3,870 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1978 | Listing Date: 05/15/07</p>

<p>


4741 LINDSTROM AVENUE Irvine, 92604 $699,900


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,332 | Lot Size: 5,550 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1971 | Listing Date: 07/27/07</p>



<p>


8 BRISBANE WAY Irvine, 92612 $715,000


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,128 | Lot Size: 3,500 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1967 | Listing Date: 07/26/07</p>

<p>1 WINTERSWEET WAY Irvine, 92612 $719,000


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,500 | Lot Size: 3,840 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1966 | Listing Date: 03/25/07</p>

<p>


14 CARLTON Irvine, 92620 $729,900


Beds: 4 | Baths: 3 | Sq. Ft.: 2,193 | Lot Size: 5,005 Sq. Ft.


Year Built: 1979 | Listing Date: 07/16/07</p>
 
<p>As much as I adore Irvine, I think garfangle is definitely putting it on too high of a pedestal. As nice as Irvine is, it's not much better than Lake Forest, Laguna Hills, Huntington Beach, Mission Viejo, and so on and so farth. It appreciated just like any other city in LA, IE, or the OC. Many, if not most, residents of Irvine can't afford today's price. 70% of the residents bought their home prior to 2000. It's the 30% that just bought within the past 5 years that might be in trouble. But even then, probably half of them had equity from a prior property. Yes, Irvine schools are good, but it's not much better than similar schools such as Sunny Hills or Troy. Yes it's safe and clean, but so is much of South County. Yes it has jobs, but you don't have to live in Irvine to work in Irvine. The bubble will burst. I think the cities that will hurt the most are those with the greatest percentage of new homeowners. For the 80% of the homeowners in the OC who owned before 2000, they are not exposed to any financial risks at all. Irvine is an ideal place to call home, but it's just as vulnerable to the housing woes as anywhere else in the OC.</p>
 
Lake Forest? Laguna Hills? HB? Seriously?? I could see the arguement for MV (although the dismal commute from down there makes the comparison sketchy), but I'm not seeing the comp with those other three at all.
 
<p>Wait. Are those pricing the norm for their particular neighborhood? For example, 51 Sconset Lane price is that the norm for that neighborhood? Or is that just one flipper in the neighborhood?</p>

<p>Assuming there's one flipper or even 20 flippers in a neighborhood of 10000 homes. And these flippers are selling their flip for 630k. Are we saying this will skew the other 10000 homeowners to lower their prices? Given that these other 10000 homeowners are not at the mercy of the market since they have purchased years ago? </p>
 
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