Irvine real estate general question

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illskittlz

New member
Hi there. I am new here so apologies if this has already been discussed to some extent. I am a returning new resident to Irvine after many many years and I now see so many new housing developments and apartments and hear about even more future developments. So my question, would it be possible that the Irvine housing marketing along with the rental market will exceed demand which could result in significant price reductions? I understand that Irvine is a highly desired city to live in, but could supply eventually exceed demand? As a future Irvine home buyer, this is something I've been wondering. Thanks.
 
Considering that most all of the new homes are sold, supply has not outpaced demand.  It's not like the builders (including Irvine Pacific) are going to flood the market with a lot of new homes all at once.  I'm sure as a new buyer to Irvine you are hoping for a pullback in prices to purchase a home, but currently the market has tail winds of improving employment, increases wages, and low rates.  Until one or more of those change, the market will remain stable.  A good indicator of the strength of the market is the number of months of inventory on the market at any point in time.  Current we are just under 3 months of inventory which puts us in a weak seller's market.  We would have to get around 3.5-4 months of inventory for the market to become neutral and 5.5-6 months to become a buyer's market. 
 
Back on the IHB (circa 2008-09), most thought that Irvine would overbuild and supply would exceed demand.

That was before Woodbury 2 Electric Boogaloo (AKA The 2010 New Home Collection), Stonegate, Cypress Village, Portola Springs The Sequel, Laguna Woktura, Pavilion "Big Lots" Park, and Hidden Money Canyon.

Add to that all those Los Olivos apartments (and the Village extensions) and the Avalon apartments in the IBC and you'll realize that demand isn't going to wane anytime soon.

Irvine is the Unicorn city, everyone wants to live, work, eat and go to school here.

#BuildItAndTheyWillCome
#IrvineShill
 
illskittlz said:
Hi there. I am new here so apologies if this has already been discussed to some extent. I am a returning new resident to Irvine after many many years and I now see so many new housing developments and apartments and hear about even more future developments. So my question, would it be possible that the Irvine housing marketing along with the rental market will exceed demand which could result in significant price reductions? I understand that Irvine is a highly desired city to live in, but could supply eventually exceed demand? As a future Irvine home buyer, this is something I've been wondering. Thanks.
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Very good questions. I think no one knows the answers of these questions, but the way builders are building new homes, i am sure they must have done some serious research :)
 
Not specific to Irvine (although Irvine ranks at the top of how much they contribute to workforce housing growth in Orange County), but there was an article in the OC Register about this.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-656224-housing-water.html

Business council: O.C. needs at least 50,000 new homes to keep up ? and it's getting worse

Orange County homebuilding isn?t keeping up with job growth, creating a shortfall of 50,000 to 62,000 homes for the county?s growing workforce, a report by the county?s leading business association says.

And the problem is getting worse, according to the report released Tuesday by the Orange County Business Council. This year?s shortfall is up from 40,000 to 50,000 homes reported in a 2012 estimate.

Unless the pace of construction picks up, demographers project the shortfall will grow to 100,000 homes by 2040.
 
toady13 said:
Not specific to Irvine (although Irvine ranks at the top of how much they contribute to workforce housing growth in Orange County), but there was an article in the OC Register about this.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-656224-housing-water.html

Business council: O.C. needs at least 50,000 new homes to keep up ? and it's getting worse

Orange County homebuilding isn?t keeping up with job growth, creating a shortfall of 50,000 to 62,000 homes for the county?s growing workforce, a report by the county?s leading business association says.

And the problem is getting worse, according to the report released Tuesday by the Orange County Business Council. This year?s shortfall is up from 40,000 to 50,000 homes reported in a 2012 estimate.

Unless the pace of construction picks up, demographers project the shortfall will grow to 100,000 homes by 2040.
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Interesting.  When my buddy applied at Irvine Police Department the interviewer asked if Irvine had more residential or jobs/employment/commercial.  He didn't know.  Anybody knows?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Back on the IHB (circa 2008-09), most thought that Irvine would overbuild and supply would exceed demand.

That was before Woodbury 2 Electric Boogaloo (AKA The 2010 New Home Collection), Stonegate, Cypress Village, Portola Springs The Sequel, Laguna Woktura, Pavilion "Big Lots" Park, and Hidden Money Canyon.

Add to that all those Los Olivos apartments (and the Village extensions) and the Avalon apartments in the IBC and you'll realize that demand isn't going to wane anytime soon.

Irvine is the Unicorn city, everyone wants to live, work, eat and go to school here.

#BuildItAndTheyWillCome
#IrvineShill
Click to expand...

It goes without saying that the IHB consensus in 2009 was that the 2010 NHC was going to be a bust, but at the time, all of the actual real experts also thought TIC was crazy to start building at that time.  TIC is not always right, but if I were a betting person, I'd bet TIC over the experts every time.
 
iacrenter said:
http://www.cityofirvine.org/about/demographics.asp

Population:
2013:
242,651

Employment Base
CA EDD and 2008-2012 American Community Survey 209,557


Harajuku said:
Interesting.  When my buddy applied at Irvine Police Department the interviewer asked if Irvine had more residential or jobs/employment/commercial.  He didn't know.  Anybody knows?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

A good number of that population is not going to be of working age. Too young or too old.
 
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