Irvine median homes sales price will bottom near $375,000, perhaps in 2012.

[PANDA_IHB]

<a href="http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/04/27/when-will-irvine-home-prices-hit-bottom">http://irvinehomes.freedomblogging.com/2009/04/27/when-will-irvine-home-prices-hit-bottom</a>



IH: Bold prediction time: when will Irvine?s real estate market hit bottom and what will the median sales price be?



LR: Back in early 2007, I predicted the median home price in Irvine would bottom around $425,000 in 2011. Despite the unprecedented manipulation of the markets being attempted by the Federal Reserve and our Federal Government, I now believe the median will drop even further, and it will likely take longer to bottom. Government policies are simply delaying the

inevitable. I now believe the Irvine median home sales price will bottom near $375,000, perhaps in 2012.



I enjoyed reading this interview on www.ocregister.com. Irvine Renter, you really think the bottom will be at $375,000 by 2012? That's 50% off from 2006 Irvine median home price. I can see how the manipulation of markets attempted by the Federal Reserve and Government prolong the bottom, but what is your reasoning for the steeper drop? As bearish as i am and would love to see this number, a median home price of $375,000 in Irvine seems almost impossible seeing that the median home price in Irvine is $667,500 today. However, I hope you are right. How many of you here are planning to wait to 2012 to buy in Irvine?

 

[PANDA_IHB]

<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/irvine-median-home-price-history">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/irvine-median-home-price-history</a>



What is the median Irvine home price in 2008 and present (2009)?



Irvine Median Home Price from 1988 - 2007

1988 $216,464

1989 $237,410

1990 $239,024

1991 $242,877

1992 $237,451

1993 $230,598

1994 $228,529

1995 $229,959

1996 $246,865

1997 $245,437

1998 $263,172

1999 $278,148

2000 $308,089

2001 $334,741

2002 $379,852

2003 $461,888

2004 $609,397

2005 $635,675

2006 $722,928

2007 $665,807



I thought the numbers above were the median homes in Irvine from 1988 - 2007 but below I see that the OC median prices were more than that of Irvine throughout those years. I thought that Irvine prices were always held a premium compared to the rest of OC. Are the median homes in Orange County in the link below not correct?



<a href="http://www.laalmanac.com/economy/ec37.htm">http://www.laalmanac.com/economy/ec37.htm</a>

 

[SoCal78_IHB]

[quote author="PANDA" date=1243245265]As bearish as i am and would love to see this number, a median home price of $375,000 in Irvine seems almost impossible. However, I hope you are right. How many of you here are planning to wait to 2012 to buy in Irvine?</blockquote>


Don't hold me to this but I think I read in one of IR's interviews, or maybe it was even here on the blog way back, that the product at that price point may be attached and perhaps two-bedroom.... so a townhome or condo. So maybe we should clarify what the definition of "home" is as it relates to that price. I would not assume it's a SFR and maybe not even three bedrooms. Perhaps IR can shed some light.

 

[PANDA_IHB]

[quote author="SoCal78" date=1243246489][quote author="PANDA" date=1243245265]As bearish as i am and would love to see this number, a median home price of $375,000 in Irvine seems almost impossible. However, I hope you are right. How many of you here are planning to wait to 2012 to buy in Irvine?</blockquote>


Don't hold me to this but I think I read in one of IR's interviews, or maybe it was even here on the blog way back, that the product at that price point may be attached and perhaps two-bedroom.... so a townhome or condo. So maybe we should clarify what the definition of "home" is as it relates to that price. I would not assume it's a SFR and maybe not even three bedrooms. Perhaps IR can shed some light.</blockquote>


When I think about the median home price in Irvine, I think about the 1600 square feet 3/2.5 detached condo that IPO sold last year. $375,000 price would be probably be the new construction sale price in 2001, therefore, perhaps Irvine Renter means that the new Irvine low will roll back to 2001 prices in Irvine by 2012.

 

[ABC123_IHB]

I don't know if this helps, but my neighbors who are original owners in Irvine bought their home for $150,000 back at the height of the housing bubble of the late '70s. Their house could sell anywhere from $800,000 - $1.2 million depending on how desperate buyers are at the moment.



They're old so they like to talk (and I like to repeat what I hear). They said their interest rate was about 12% and they had fancy financing with a balloon payment. During their first seven years they were "underwater". Luckily when it came time to refinance, ten years later, they were saved by a new housing bubble and miraculously they had tons of equity. Fast forward thirty years later their house is owned outright.