Irvine home sales down 39% in June; median price down 15.4%

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<a href="http://irvineretail.freedomblogging.com/2008/07/24/560/">I saw this article in the OCR the other day</a>, and now Brian Martinez has a blog post about it.



<em>The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year.



There were 144 closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes during June, down 39 percent from the 237 sales in same month last year.



Countywide, the median is down 23 percent and sales are down 27 percent.



The facts that sales volume in Irvine is down significantly more than in O.C. as a whole while the median price in Irvine is down significantly less than in O.C. as a whole is probably due to Irvine seeing fewer foreclosures than the countywide market as a whole, said mark Boud, principal of Real Estate Economics in Irvine.



Foreclosures increase volume while driving sales down, he said. Irvine?s centrality to jobs is probably a key factor in its resistance to foreclusures, he added.



?If you have to be in a really bad market, Irvine is a nice place to be,? he said.



The 43.8 percent median price drop in ZIP code <strong>92618 - which includes the new Woodbury village - is probably due to the small sample size as well as the fact that most of the home in the area were recently built, Boud said.</strong> Most of the homes in the area were sold for the first time in 2004 and 2005, which was the top of the market, he said.



The 70 percent drop in sales volume for ZIP code <strong>92612 - which includes University Park and Turtle Rock - is probably because it is a high-demand and well-established community, Boud said.</strong> That dynamic creates a low turnover rate overall, and long-time owners have more equity and smaller mortgages, which makes them more foreclosure-resistant.</em>



Okay... someone correct me if I am wrong here, but I thought Woodbury was in 92620 and Portola Springs was is 92618. That would actually make Mark Boud's comment make more sense, since PS sold in 2005, 2006 and 2007 the real peak of the market. Of course in 2006 the market was considered moderate according to his statistics, even when his stats showed that people were spending 65% of their income on their mortgage payment and in the 90s peak it only got as high as 45%.



Also, last time I checked Turtle Rock is in 92603, but I could be wrong again. In fact the Marquee towers are in 92612, so with all the foreclosures there lately, that resistance he speaks of could be a lot less resistant than he thinks. It's not like Mark Boud has been wrong before or anything like that.



Am I wrong on the zips, or did the reporter misquote, or is Mark Boud totally clueless? Heh... I will admit when I am wrong, but Mark has yet to admit how wrong he and his company have been. He owes all of those builders a refund for his poor stats and ignorance of zip codes. They could have been reading IHB for free and getting better info. I wonder how much business John Burns has gained from disenchanted client's of Mark Boud?
 
Yes, you are correct about the zipcodes: Woodbury is in 92620, Portola Springs is in 92618, and Turtle Rock is in 92603.
 
Those big volume drops and smallish price drops happened last fall in Miami,

as Sellers refused to believe what was happening. So it seems you are maybe

6-9 months behind us, and we are now down 30%.



A Miami condo blog calculated what IR likes to call equity burn and it was

about $4400 a month in Miami-Dade County.
 
<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/</a>



IPO and Provider believe that the market has stablized, and thus disagree. See posts 41 and 44.
 
If you go on Refin, and do a zip and location search, you will see some of the University Park, University town center and Turtle rock area homes actually are listed under the zip of 92612. Unless, Redfin made mistakes. Also, airport area (which includes those towers) is listed under the zip of 92612.



Both Northwood and Woodbury are under the zip of 92620, which has min. median price change (2.9% less YOY), and not too bad sales drop ( 11.1 less YOY).
 
[quote author="irvine123" date=1217630872]Unless, Redfin made mistakes. </blockquote>
I believe that is the case here.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1217627897]<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/</a>



IPO and Provider believe that the market has stablized, and thus disagree. See posts 41 and 44.</blockquote>


The Irvine market has stabilized, at least temporarily. I just sold my house for $52,000 more than the last model-matched comp... That sure sounds like evidence of stabilization, albeit probably short-term.



As Irvine inventory is 35% lower YOY, the lower sales volume YOY isn't doing much to surpress prices. Last summer, there was six months of inventory on the market in Irvine, just the same as this summer. The months inventory has been nearly twice as high as it now over the course of the past twelve months. That is stabilization...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217631431][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1217627897]<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/</a>



IPO and Provider believe that the market has stablized, and thus disagree. See posts 41 and 44.</blockquote>


The Irvine market has stabilized, at least temporarily. I just sold my house for $52,000 more than the last model-matched comp... That sure sounds like evidence of stabilization, albeit probably short-term.



As Irvine inventory is 35% lower YOY, the lower sales volume YOY isn't doing much to surpress prices. Last summer, there was six months of inventory on the market in Irvine, just the same as this summer. The months inventory has been nearly twice as high as it now over the course of the past twelve months. That is stabilization...</blockquote>


But.... isn't the ARM and Alt-A resets coming soon? I think these loans were more prevalent for homes in the $600-1mm range.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1217631707][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217631431][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1217627897]<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1296/P25/</a>



IPO and Provider believe that the market has stablized, and thus disagree. See posts 41 and 44.</blockquote>


The Irvine market has stabilized, at least temporarily. I just sold my house for $52,000 more than the last model-matched comp... That sure sounds like evidence of stabilization, albeit probably short-term.



As Irvine inventory is 35% lower YOY, the lower sales volume YOY isn't doing much to surpress prices. Last summer, there was six months of inventory on the market in Irvine, just the same as this summer. The months inventory has been nearly twice as high as it now over the course of the past twelve months. That is stabilization...</blockquote>


But.... isn't the ARM and Alt-A resets coming soon? I think these loans were more prevalent for homes in the $600-1mm range.</blockquote>


I sure as heck hope so... I'll believe it when I see inventory start spiking uncontrollably.
 
I can only comment on Irvine in the 1M plus range and not much is moving. I think any pop in the prices recently was due to seasonality. Homeowners wanting to get in before school starts. I think this winter will be brutal on prices and sales. Look at what is going on. We have loans that are getting tougher to get. interest rates rising. unemployment rising, foreclosures rising and the economy in the dumper. If that doesn't spell downward pressure I don't know what does.
 
So what is the deal with Villa Rosa? Those homes almost seem like they are playing by different rules... I've watched jumbo loan products go through the roof in the last 3 months... and I haven't seen this have much of an impact. The most I heard of was a 20K incentive. On a million dollar home, that's chump change.
 
Non listed REOs, properties put on the mkt and then pulled off

the listing service. Empty houses for whatever reason. Sellers who'd

like to sell, but can't/won't face reality. Even past due mtg houses that

lenders haven't had time to foreclose on yet. . .



I have a client who'd like to bid on a couple of foreclosures; both

have foreclose suits filed and on both nothing has been done to bring

the files to an end since January or February.



I think a fair number of foreclosures are in an lawsuitus interruptus

state, because if they finish the foreclosure they will have to start paying

the condo maintenance, which often is huge because there are so many

non paying owners or other lenders, who often don't pay even after they

take the property back.
 
The higher end market might be "immune" (even though I don't believe that) but the lower end sure isn't. These are the people without down payments, have shadier credit and lower incomes. Those factors definately aren't conducsive of stability. The lower end market is headed lower, even in Irvine.
 
<em>"The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year."</em>






Stabilization? Well I guess you can call it what you want. I choose to call it a large decrease in prices with no end in sight.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1217654848]<em>"The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year."</em>






Stabilization? Well I guess you can call it what you want. I choose to call it a large decrease in prices with no end in sight.</blockquote>


<em>Downscale ZIPs power mid-July homebuying surge

Friday, August 1st, 2008 by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist

A summertime homebuying surge that could end a 33-month slump is being powered by a dozen, primarily downscale O.C. ZIPs ? Anaheim?s 92802, 92804, 92806; Buena Park 90620; Fullerton 92833; Garden Grove 92844; Lake Forest 92630; Midway City 92655; Orange 92866; Santa Ana?s 92703 and 92707 and Stanton 90680.



Each of these 12 neighborhoods saw sales gains for the 22 business days ended July 15 vs. a year ago exceed 50%. (Full ZIP code report IS HERE!)



These latest home-selling stats from DataQuick show overall O.C. homebuying runs just 0.6% below a year ago. The last time O.C. home sales exceeded the year-ago pace for a full month was September 2005.



How have sales begun to firm? Here?s a hint: Median selling price is off 26.3% vs. a year ago. And it?s been quite a fall from the pricing top:



? Single-family homes are $184,000 or 26% below the peak of $720,000 hit in June 2007.



? Condos are $136,000 or 29% below the peak of $470,000 hit in March ?06.



? Newly built homes are $294,000 or 34% below the peak of $864,000 hit in February 2005.



? Overall, the countywide median is $168,000 or 26% below the peak of $645,000 hit in June 2007.</em>



As of mid July, Irvine was pacing for around 190 sales. I think the July sample is the largest month in my spec since I have been tracking. Couple that with the lowest inventory level of homes in Irvine since February 2007 and it means some stabilization.



I wish things were as bad as they were this past Fall and Winter but I don't see conditions nearly as bleak. If you look at the monthly CS numbers, the rate of decline has been slowing across the county for months...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217656155][quote author="awgee" date=1217654848]<em>"The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year."</em>






Stabilization? Well I guess you can call it what you want. I choose to call it a large decrease in prices with no end in sight.</blockquote>


<em>Downscale ZIPs power mid-July homebuying surge

Friday, August 1st, 2008 by Jon Lansner/O.C. Register columnist

A summertime homebuying surge that could end a 33-month slump is being powered by a dozen, primarily downscale O.C. ZIPs ? Anaheim?s 92802, 92804, 92806; Buena Park 90620; Fullerton 92833; Garden Grove 92844; Lake Forest 92630; Midway City 92655; Orange 92866; Santa Ana?s 92703 and 92707 and Stanton 90680.



Each of these 12 neighborhoods saw sales gains for the 22 business days ended July 15 vs. a year ago exceed 50%. (Full ZIP code report IS HERE!)



These latest home-selling stats from DataQuick show overall O.C. homebuying runs just 0.6% below a year ago. The last time O.C. home sales exceeded the year-ago pace for a full month was September 2005.



How have sales begun to firm? Here?s a hint: Median selling price is off 26.3% vs. a year ago. And it?s been quite a fall from the pricing top:



? Single-family homes are $184,000 or 26% below the peak of $720,000 hit in June 2007.



? Condos are $136,000 or 29% below the peak of $470,000 hit in March ?06.



? Newly built homes are $294,000 or 34% below the peak of $864,000 hit in February 2005.



? Overall, the countywide median is $168,000 or 26% below the peak of $645,000 hit in June 2007.</em>



As of mid July, Irvine was pacing for around 190 sales. I think the July sample is the largest month in my spec since I have been tracking. Couple that with the lowest inventory level of homes in Irvine since February 2007 and it means some stabilization.



I wish things were as bad as they were this past Fall and Winter but I don't see conditions nearly as bleak. If you look at the monthly CS numbers, the rate of decline has been slowing across the county for months...</blockquote>


<em>"The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year."</em>



That is a 15.4 decrease in <strong>IRVINE</strong> zip codes. Not Buena Park, Santa Ana, Anaheim, or Garden Grove. Just <strong>IRVINE</strong>. Like I said, I guess you can call it stabilization if you want, but it sure looks like a large continual decrease in prices with no end in sight.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1217663055]



<em>"The median home price for closed sales in all Irvine ZIP codes for June 2008 was $637,049, down 15.4 percent from $753,008 in the same month last year."</em>



That is a 15.4 decrease in <strong>IRVINE</strong> zip codes. Not Buena Park, Santa Ana, Anaheim, or Garden Grove. Just <strong>IRVINE</strong>. Like I said, I guess you can call it stabilization if you want, but it sure looks like a large continual decrease in prices with no end in sight.</blockquote>


You are a smart man awgee and I have much respect for you, but sometimes you really make me scratch my head... If prices fell 15% over six months of a twelve month period, and then flat-lined for the next six months, you'd look at the YOY and see no stabilization and no end in sight to declines?



I guess I just like my data a little more real time than that. If I ran my business based off YOY comparisons without regard to monthly, quarterly, etc. shifts, we'd probably go under pretty quickly. For example, our YOY sales and profit as of the end of Q2 are only slightly down, but they are well down from late 2007 and early 2008 numbers. That means slowdown to me (and the rest of my senior management team) not just business as usual...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1217684073]

sometimes you really make me scratch my head... If prices fell 15% over six months of a twelve month period, and then flat-lined for the next six months, you'd look at the YOY and see no stabilization and no end in sight to declines?



</blockquote>


I have been waiting for you to bring this up. It has been so hard for me to bite my tongue, but I wanted you to question for yourself.


It all depends on which six months I am looking at, and what market I am analyzing. Example: Retail clothing


If I compare November, December, and January sales to March, April, May, I will determine that sales are declining in the spring. But, if I use YOY, I will have useful data from which to make decisions.


The residential real estate market is seasonally dependent, to the extreme. Why do you think RE numbers are <strong>ALWAYS</strong> expressed in YOY.


Are sales in the spring and summer greater than those in the fall and winter? When sales fall off this fall and winter, does that mean that sales have fallen off a cliff? There is no way to know unless one compares YOY.


So, to answer your question, it all depends. I look at both and if the monthly sales are increasing, but YOY is decreasing, and this is an annual occurrence, I will logically give much more weight to YOY. Now, if you told me there was a monthly trend that went against the usual annual trend, that would be significant.


And most important to me are the fundamentals. Monthly sales and YOY sales are technical analysis, and the res. re market is way better analyzed and predicted using fundamentals. And the fundamentals for re are getting worse, not better.
 
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