Inventory

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ns2524_IHB

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<p>Date 4/11/2007 5/01/2007 6/01/2007 07/01/07


Aliso Viejo 324 371 406 412


Irvine 1046 1096 1205 1239


Laguna Niguel 498 542 574 589


Mission Viejo 866 951 1023 1036</p>

<p>Total 2734 2960 3208 3276</p>

<p>Irvine May sales 133


Irvine May Trustee sales 10


Irvine May Partail Sale 1


Irvine Total May Sales 144


</p>
 
<p>OCR's chart shows 214 sales in Irvine for the 22 business days ending June 21. Did sales pick up or are the numbers tabulated differently?</p>

<p>Either way, it's slowing down. I recall seeing 250 back when I was tracking it regularly . Inventory is 1253 now per Zip.</p>

<p> </p>
 
OC - ns2524 numbers are for May where as OCR is the last 22 business days that include June and May. Two things to note on the OCR and the May data 1. 92606 is up 185% WTF? 2. OCR's data catches the end of May and EOM is always higher. June could still have an uptick but the inventory isn't decreasing. Also if you are a sucker I'm willing to bet the trustee sales pick up big in June and I'll double the bet it will pick up even more in July.
 
<p>I think 92606 is VOC. Here is one for you OC 9 Torrigiani is up for auction on 8/1 for $392k and here is the sales data from Nov. 24th 2005 Irvine World News.</p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://img106.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2007/07/09/irsalesdata-47325rxqj.gif" /></p>
 
<p>Hmm. 2/1.5, 1088sq ft. Started at $560k, dropped to $501k after the 2006 season was pretty much over. First blogged it 11 months ago and admonished the seller to cut their damn price ASAP as other sellers were making them look dumb. At a $459k purchase, you'd think there'd have been some room to cut further, unless they had taken out a HEL or something.</p>

<p>How much you wanna bet the stupid bank will list it as REO at $450k (or higher)? </p>
 
First lets see if it goes back to the bank. Then if it does I will not take that bet. The banks have their heads so far up their @ss they would price it at $480k. There are two of the exact same model with similar upgrades owned by the same bank Accredited/Ames in Fraudera Ranch and one is still priced at $550k and the other one has been dropped to $479k. Hello wake the bleep up! I think that the REO auction companies are going to make some fat cash the next couple of years. It might be a good idea to start one that understands this market what do you think?
 
<p>Last year inventory peaked right at the end of July. It will be interesting to see when the peak occurs this year as foreclosures will probably continue to rise throughout the year.</p>
 
<p>More baby-step bear movements in my 'hood... All this within the last two weeks:</p>

<p>1207 Reggio down 15k (at war with power-FSBO next door).</p>

<p>200 Tropea down 15k.</p>

<p>2401 Ladrillo (short sale) down 28k and is likely to be a new comp-buster once it finally sells.</p>

<p>24 Imperial down 30k.</p>

<p>40 Finisterra (SFR) down 20k</p>

<p>Two new listings on Ladrillo.</p>

<p>One new listing on Solvay. (Brio just broke its 2006 for-sale record)</p>

<p>Very nice! </p>
 
Irvine inventory has been floating around 1250 for the past couple weeks. On 7/2 it hit 1230 and I thought may be the pundits are right and the worst is over. It is at 1260 today.



Aliso Viejo 468

Irvine 1260

Laguna Niguel 600

Mission Viejo 1037

Total 3365
 
I wonder what inventory was in, say, 2003/4. The good ol' days. Or, does anyone know the total number of residences in the city? That would make for a nice little percentage index of inventory.
 
<p>I was not able collect Auguest's data.( vacation). Inventory remains stagnant. </p>

<p>Date 4/11/2007 5/01/2007 6/01/2007 07/01/07 9/01/07


Aliso Viejo 324 371 406 412 487


Irvine 1046 1096 1205 1239 1235


Laguna Niguel 498 542 574 589 608


Mission Viejo 866 951 1023 1036 1006 </p>

<p>Total 2734 2960 3208 3276 3336</p>

<p>Irvine July sales 230


Irvine July Trustee sales ?


Irvine July Partail Sale ?


Irvine Total July Sales 230


</p>
 
Date 4/11/07 5/01/07 6/01/20 07/01/07 9/01/07 10/01/07

Aliso Viejo 324 371 406 412 487 485

Irvine 1046 1096 1205 1239 1235 1162

Laguna Niguel 498 542 574 589 608 612

Mission Viejo 866 951 1023 1036 1006 985



Total 2734 2960 3208 3276 3336 3244



What’s odd is that Irvine was showing 1194 yesterday. It’s showing 1162 a difference of 33 homes. Total Auguset sales 178
 
The inventory has moved 10% down from its peak in August. This is the direct result of price reduction of (guesstimate 10%) so far. If the trend continues (10% a quarter) we are not far from reaching 2003 prices. My guess would be summer 2008.



Date 4/1/07 5/1/07 6/1/07 7/1/07 8/1/07 9/1/07 10/1/07 11/1/07

Aliso Viejo 324 371 406 421 474 487 485 463

Irvine 1046 1096 1205 1239 1254 1235 1162 1139

Laguna Niguel 498 542 574 589 600 608 612 551

Mission Viejo 866 951 1023 1036 1029 1006 985 963



Total 2734 2960 3208 3285 3357 3336 3244 3116
 
<p>Irvine inventory dropped below 1100 mark since 05/01/07. A sign that inventory is moving due to the price drop.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Inventory drop may be seasonal due to homeowners (not banks or REO's) taking homes off the market for the holidays. People often do not want to have showings and the hassel of marketing during the period of family visits or traveling to relatives.</p>

<p>Just one opinion.</p>
 
I'm with NSR...I think the inventory has dropped because unsuccessful sellers have taken their homes off the market. I can hear them muttering, "No WAY am I going to sell it for THAT".
 
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