In the West, however, sales rose 4 percent.

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
i own a store selling high end dog poop for $99.99/lb. business had been slow so i slashed prices. so this yr i managed to sell 1 whole lb of crap instead of the usual 0.5 lbs. sales are up 100%!





business is great.
 
I think it is important to note the downward revisions from the <a href="http://www.census.gov/const/newressales_200710.pdf">October report</a> compared to the <a href="http://www.census.gov/const/newressales_200711.pdf">November report</a>.





For the West (in thousands), August was revised from 160 down to 155, September was revised down from 185 to 177, and October was revised from 156 to 151. Most likely November will be revised downward as well, since the margin of error is 18.7%. Also, consider that August and September were revised down twice since they were originally reported.





Taking the preliminary October 156 number and the preliminary November 157 number, homes sales were up 0.6%. Seeing as how the average downward revision is 5667, by rounding up, it would make the November number 151, or an increase of 0%. The YOY numbers were down -33.8%, and factoring in the possible revision would be down -36.3%.





The October numbers were originally reported that the YOY number was down -37.3%, however with the revision it was actually down -39.4%.





The not seasonally adjusted months of inventory in the West increased from 10.5 months in October to 12.2 months in November, and YOY it is up from 7.4 months.





Could this be perceived as the bottom? Sure, but it looks to me like the West will be hanging around the bottom for some time to come.
 
Here are the numbers for November New Homes off the Register.



All new homes $630,250 -11.4% Total Sales 300 Units -31.0% Compared to November 06.



Price is down 11.4% and Volume is down 31% and I bet this is signed contacts. Not closings.

And dont forget about incentives. Bet that pulls the real resale number down another 8% or so.



Sure. This has got to be the bottom. NOT.

Come on down you knife catchers. Now is a great time to buy !!!!
 
<em>Price is down 11.4% and Volume is down 31% and I bet this is signed contacts. Not closings.





</em>Actually, the DQ numbers are recorded sales, and the census numbers are the signed contracts. With cancellation rates at 30%-40% in the West for most of the builders, then I think it is safe to say that the numbers will be revised lower.
 
i stopped by woodberry, four quartetes... nothing for sale - sold out. stopped by woodberry east, some homes sold out 6 months in advance... stopped by portola springs, sendero... nothing for sale - sold out. stopped by VoC, verandas... only two for sale (and verandas is right at the train track/red hill)



where is all this inventory and no buyers ? i don't care if this is the bottom or not, but it sure seems people are buying... and not just a few... i'm sure there is some out there, but not the best layouts/location...



i know the used home market is in MAJOR trouble, but new homes ??
 
i think the reason for that is builders selling those homes for years, phase by phase, with people buying even before the home is built. so it is harder to see how long a particular new home's been on the market (around 2 years would be a fair estimate in my view)...
 
i personally consider beeing on the market after it's built... ready to move in... but for the stats who know's how they are looking at that ?
 
update on my business:





people told me that i was crazy and no one would purchase dog poop, let along premium priced dog poop, but come on by and you'll see that i even can't keep this stuff in stock! business is just that good. previously the slowdown drove me near bankruptcy and i was forced to dump nearly all my inventory. unfortunately i didn't have any capital or credit to restock my inventory. on the other hand, i was able to unloaded remaining inventory i had at drastically reduced prices. and i'm proud to say i'm now turning customers away left and right. that's right -- SOLD OUT!





ISB, are you looking for an investment opportunity???
 
The confidence interval on the entire report is ±13.9%. Assuming the same confidence interval applies to the Western region (I can't get excited enough about the report to bother looking into the details), you could say with 90% confidence that sales in the Western region fell somewhere between a 9.9% decline and a 17.9% increase...
 
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