graphrix_IHB
New member
Back in the old days, Lansner used to censor comments, and many of mine were lost in cyberspace. LOL, to think I was considered a pollyanna, chicken little nutter back then. Now who is the nutter? I got pissed back then, and started to repost them here. <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/04/26/insider-qa-hears-construction-rebounds-likely-slow/">So, I posted a gem on Lansner's archive of Steve Thomas' great quantitative predictions</a>.
<em>Oh? How I digress. I found a gem of Steve Thomas in the archives for all to see.http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2006/09/16/insider-qa-the-real-estate-agents-view/
It seems he does have a degree in ?quantitative economics? and not ?Quantum Economics? as some have suggested.
Steven Thomas Says:
September 18th, 2006 at 10:45 am
I really think that I am being unfairly labeled a ?bull? by the mere virtue of my profession. There are plenty of ?bulls? within my organization, but I am not one of them. When the idea of ?inverted demand? for this year was thrown out there by one my colleagues, I was the first to question the rationale behind the statement. You see, I have a Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences degree and would rather err on the side of being conservative and sensible. I argued that there was not a catalyst to help strengthen demand. I would not classify myself as a ?bear? since I do not believe in the ?bubble? argument. One of the posts believed that the bubble had already popped. With a 7 month inventory, and holding, nothing has popped yet. I scour number for the truth. One incident of a consumer that could have received an incredible deal that dates back to 2004 prices does not make a market. There are still homes closing at the highest level within their development. That too is not an adequate reflection of the market. The market, in my opinion, has to be looked at in its entirety. I used the term ?froth? because our Blogger was looking for a term in his question to me. We are definitely not experiencing a ?soft landing? because there is pressure on pricing, in some areas more profound than others. We ARE experiencing prices coming down, but the drastic drops that so many of you are looking for in the market as a whole just are not there. My point in buying now through the end of the year is for the thousands of buyers that are going to buy no matter what the bears will upon the market. This will be the BEST time to buy for 2006. We will be giving back appreciation that we realized, as a county, for the first half of the year. Regardless of the will of the bears, there will be a Spring market in 2007 where demand, the number of buyers going to escrow, will increase. It does every Spring. I will keep all of our agents posted, through statistics, charts, graphs and newspaper articles, so that they can, in turn, keep their buyers and sellers posted. They can make an informed decision with the knowledge that they are armed with the truth.
This market will strengthen the real estate community as well. Nine years of appreciation attracted too many people desirous of making a quick buck. Yet, during that time, many still struggled. A California Association of Realtors statistic pegged one out of every 52 California adults has a license. Nine year of incredible appreciation watered down our industry. With this market, many are leaving and many have already packed their bags. In the end, we will be left with the individuals who are the best in the industry, survival of the fittest.
The market that we are experiencing today is very similar to what Colorado has been experiencing for years. They were stuck at a 6 month inventory. At 7 months, we are slightly above that figure. 6 months is basically equilibrium where priced just don?t move. If the inventory reaches levels at 9 months or above, then there will be a lot more pressure on pricing. There are some cities in Orange County that are at that figure or above. There are some cities that are below the 6 months mark also. I put together a chart every other week that breaks down every city?s inventory on that day and then compares it to 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago and 1 year ago. That chart breaks down the various ranges as well. Our Blogger has posted those figures for the past 3 reports. But, this is something that I have done since June of 2004, when all of a sudden our market changed from a 21 day inventory to 4 months practically overnight. We needed a way to adequately inform everybody, our agents included, of the evolving market. This report is called the Market Time Report and is disseminated to our agents and our agent?s clients. The report also includes a lengthy dissertation of the market as well. The Market Time Report tracks pending sales, the best gauge, in my opinion, as to what is going on in the market right now.
I believe in information and informed decisions. Any decision based on conjecture is foolish. Statistics is the closest I come to owning a crystal ball. I will continue to pass along my statistics to our Blogger.</em>
And, here was his pathetically incorrect prediction of a follow up comment?
<em>
Steven Thomas Says:
September 19th, 2006 at 11:06 am
In looking out ?5 to 10 years? as an investment, my money is in real estate. So many of the ?bears? are looking for the bottom to fall out of the market so that they can enter and in ?5 to 10 years? be sitting on a mountain of equity similar to what homeowners are sitting on right now. Prices are coming down, just not DRASTICALLY. The market has been very, very measured up to this point. <strong><u>We are going to give back the appreciation from THIS YEAR. We may give back a little more after Spring of 2007</u></strong>. Keep in mind, housing is not just an investment, it is a home and people like to live in a home that they own. There will always be demand, especially in the OC. Long term, as we run out of land, my money is on OC real estate. Go ahead, try and time the market. In a couple of years(or few, who knows?) when the market heats up again, don?t wait too long on the sideline and get caught up in the next frenzy.
I am really curious, since so many of you believe in a bubble, how far are values going to fall? 40%? 50%? I just do not see it but I would really like to hear your opinions. Does that make me a ?bull? now?</em>
Steve, where ever you got your degree in quantitative economics from, they have been trying to reach you. They realize you never grasped the basic concept of a regression model, and they want to take your degree back. This may sound like I am being a mean bubblehead bear, but with this evidence, you are a disgrace to anything related to economics, and Guassian would beat you over the head with a spreadsheet to show you how wrong you are. You do realize that the variable of NTSs are greater than sales, right? Oh? I could go on, but this enough to show how wrong the Kool-Aid snorting bulls were and are.
Make sure you read the comments, as there are some classics in there.
<em>oc_fliptrack Says:
September 16th, 2006 at 1:40 pm
The ingredients aren't there for a "bubble" either
I would disagree. (There was a link here to a great post by this snarky bastard)</em>
Oh... whatever happened to Johnson? Did he ever get those razorblades?
<em>
Johnson Says:
September 16th, 2006 at 9:05 am
Those boys at Forbes have gone over to the Dark Side, obviously been bribed by the Real Estate Industrial Complex, maybe even been body-snatched and turned into Replicants:
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2006/09/07/real-estate-predictions_cx_lr_0908housing.html">http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2006/09/07/real-estate-predictions_cx_lr_0908housing.html</a>
Here?s their projections for LA and SD:
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a216/Pixbucket/losangeles.gif
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a216/Pixbucket/sandiego.gif
The photobucket links are dead, because they would show how wrong they were</em>
Next up... Pat Veling. Archives are FTW! These guys are going to lose it, and everyone here needs to hide the razorblades. This is just the beginning.
<em>Oh? How I digress. I found a gem of Steve Thomas in the archives for all to see.http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2006/09/16/insider-qa-the-real-estate-agents-view/
It seems he does have a degree in ?quantitative economics? and not ?Quantum Economics? as some have suggested.
Steven Thomas Says:
September 18th, 2006 at 10:45 am
I really think that I am being unfairly labeled a ?bull? by the mere virtue of my profession. There are plenty of ?bulls? within my organization, but I am not one of them. When the idea of ?inverted demand? for this year was thrown out there by one my colleagues, I was the first to question the rationale behind the statement. You see, I have a Quantitative Economics and Decision Sciences degree and would rather err on the side of being conservative and sensible. I argued that there was not a catalyst to help strengthen demand. I would not classify myself as a ?bear? since I do not believe in the ?bubble? argument. One of the posts believed that the bubble had already popped. With a 7 month inventory, and holding, nothing has popped yet. I scour number for the truth. One incident of a consumer that could have received an incredible deal that dates back to 2004 prices does not make a market. There are still homes closing at the highest level within their development. That too is not an adequate reflection of the market. The market, in my opinion, has to be looked at in its entirety. I used the term ?froth? because our Blogger was looking for a term in his question to me. We are definitely not experiencing a ?soft landing? because there is pressure on pricing, in some areas more profound than others. We ARE experiencing prices coming down, but the drastic drops that so many of you are looking for in the market as a whole just are not there. My point in buying now through the end of the year is for the thousands of buyers that are going to buy no matter what the bears will upon the market. This will be the BEST time to buy for 2006. We will be giving back appreciation that we realized, as a county, for the first half of the year. Regardless of the will of the bears, there will be a Spring market in 2007 where demand, the number of buyers going to escrow, will increase. It does every Spring. I will keep all of our agents posted, through statistics, charts, graphs and newspaper articles, so that they can, in turn, keep their buyers and sellers posted. They can make an informed decision with the knowledge that they are armed with the truth.
This market will strengthen the real estate community as well. Nine years of appreciation attracted too many people desirous of making a quick buck. Yet, during that time, many still struggled. A California Association of Realtors statistic pegged one out of every 52 California adults has a license. Nine year of incredible appreciation watered down our industry. With this market, many are leaving and many have already packed their bags. In the end, we will be left with the individuals who are the best in the industry, survival of the fittest.
The market that we are experiencing today is very similar to what Colorado has been experiencing for years. They were stuck at a 6 month inventory. At 7 months, we are slightly above that figure. 6 months is basically equilibrium where priced just don?t move. If the inventory reaches levels at 9 months or above, then there will be a lot more pressure on pricing. There are some cities in Orange County that are at that figure or above. There are some cities that are below the 6 months mark also. I put together a chart every other week that breaks down every city?s inventory on that day and then compares it to 2 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago and 1 year ago. That chart breaks down the various ranges as well. Our Blogger has posted those figures for the past 3 reports. But, this is something that I have done since June of 2004, when all of a sudden our market changed from a 21 day inventory to 4 months practically overnight. We needed a way to adequately inform everybody, our agents included, of the evolving market. This report is called the Market Time Report and is disseminated to our agents and our agent?s clients. The report also includes a lengthy dissertation of the market as well. The Market Time Report tracks pending sales, the best gauge, in my opinion, as to what is going on in the market right now.
I believe in information and informed decisions. Any decision based on conjecture is foolish. Statistics is the closest I come to owning a crystal ball. I will continue to pass along my statistics to our Blogger.</em>
And, here was his pathetically incorrect prediction of a follow up comment?
<em>
Steven Thomas Says:
September 19th, 2006 at 11:06 am
In looking out ?5 to 10 years? as an investment, my money is in real estate. So many of the ?bears? are looking for the bottom to fall out of the market so that they can enter and in ?5 to 10 years? be sitting on a mountain of equity similar to what homeowners are sitting on right now. Prices are coming down, just not DRASTICALLY. The market has been very, very measured up to this point. <strong><u>We are going to give back the appreciation from THIS YEAR. We may give back a little more after Spring of 2007</u></strong>. Keep in mind, housing is not just an investment, it is a home and people like to live in a home that they own. There will always be demand, especially in the OC. Long term, as we run out of land, my money is on OC real estate. Go ahead, try and time the market. In a couple of years(or few, who knows?) when the market heats up again, don?t wait too long on the sideline and get caught up in the next frenzy.
I am really curious, since so many of you believe in a bubble, how far are values going to fall? 40%? 50%? I just do not see it but I would really like to hear your opinions. Does that make me a ?bull? now?</em>
Steve, where ever you got your degree in quantitative economics from, they have been trying to reach you. They realize you never grasped the basic concept of a regression model, and they want to take your degree back. This may sound like I am being a mean bubblehead bear, but with this evidence, you are a disgrace to anything related to economics, and Guassian would beat you over the head with a spreadsheet to show you how wrong you are. You do realize that the variable of NTSs are greater than sales, right? Oh? I could go on, but this enough to show how wrong the Kool-Aid snorting bulls were and are.
Make sure you read the comments, as there are some classics in there.
<em>oc_fliptrack Says:
September 16th, 2006 at 1:40 pm
The ingredients aren't there for a "bubble" either
I would disagree. (There was a link here to a great post by this snarky bastard)</em>
Oh... whatever happened to Johnson? Did he ever get those razorblades?
<em>
Johnson Says:
September 16th, 2006 at 9:05 am
Those boys at Forbes have gone over to the Dark Side, obviously been bribed by the Real Estate Industrial Complex, maybe even been body-snatched and turned into Replicants:
<a href="http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2006/09/07/real-estate-predictions_cx_lr_0908housing.html">http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2006/09/07/real-estate-predictions_cx_lr_0908housing.html</a>
Here?s their projections for LA and SD:
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a216/Pixbucket/losangeles.gif
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a216/Pixbucket/sandiego.gif
The photobucket links are dead, because they would show how wrong they were</em>
Next up... Pat Veling. Archives are FTW! These guys are going to lose it, and everyone here needs to hide the razorblades. This is just the beginning.
