How low will it go and how long will it take? Predictions?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
T

theBigD_IHB

New member
<p>Just like everyone else, I'm waiting for price drops somewhere in OC, most likely Irvine or Mission Viejo, but want to know what everyone guesses will be prices in the future? 2 years, 5 years from now?</p>

<p>A random example, <a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=656195">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=656195</a></p>

<p>3/3, 1500, on the market for 689. Last sold in Jan. '04 for 518. Do you really think these types of homes will fall to '04 or lower? I can't see myself putting 50K down and then paying 5.5K/month for this type of apartment, sorry townhome. </p>

<p>Additionally, even if foreclosures do not go out of whack like IrvineRenter and others expect, won't the fact that the subprime loans won't be available AND the fact that people can't put 20% down (or 5% for first timers), will bring the market down anyway? IR believes it will be a foreclosure driven drop, but what about the fact that certain loan types won't be available anymore?</p>
 
I hope prices will drop down to '03 levels! Actually I don't know. But what I do know is that is the same exact place my friend used to stay in. He was renting a room from the owner and would have poker nights every week. Interesting, I should reach out to my old friend to see where he is staying these days.
 
Hey I like that property. The neighborhood is really nice (Oak Creek) and I like the fact that it has 3 bathrooms, yard, and 2 car garage w/drive way. If it has bedroom downstairs with walk-in shower, it'd be perfect for grandma. The price ($689k) is too high, but if it falls to $500k, I'd be happy to consider purchasing it.
 
I believe that is part of Oak Creek's "Cobblestone" development. That development brings back memory. They are those cute little houses you see on Alton near Jeffrey (across from Oak Creek plaza). My wife and I were on priority list for the longest time back in 1999 just to buy one of these. They were the cheapest "single family" development in Oak Creek priced at $200K to $300K. I think about 5 or 6 houses shares a common driveway, and each unit is extremely close to each other. Thus they are classified as Condo/Townhomes instead of single family. Boy have they appreciated a lot over the year!





As to your question BigD, you will hear opinions and predictions from many. But if somebody really had a crystal ball, I think Warren Baffet will not be so famous anymore. We thought the market can't go any higher back in 2004 based on the mean income level of Irvine, but after seeing how the price trend broke any traditional data analysis, I'd say anything is possible now. I am sure you've heard this before, but if you're planning to stay there for the long term, buy what you can afford and stick with it. That is what our plan is. And if one day we do end up in a house, I will block out the realestate blog such as this one so we will not have any regrets.
 
I like Irvine Renter's predictions. Two of the major variables are and employment and lending interest rates. If the makeup and distribution of income changes then Irvine and OC home prices will react accordingly. On a macro scale, if US debt, decreasing dollar valuation, exogenous shocks such as derivative market / financial instituion collapse, Iran war, etc. put the U.S. economy on a downward spiral, dimes to dollars says Bernanke will lower that fed rate. That may or may not affect loan interest rates as we have seen recently. There are many other things that could affect my thumb in the wind. =) I'm planning on qualifying for a mortage in mid-2010 .
 
<p>prices only went up in 2004 because buyers figure that all they had to do was manage the mortgage for a year; at which time, they can either sell or refinance for more cash.</p>

<p>but now, 2007, no one can possibly buy believing that prices will go up in a year. so w/o selling or refinancing as an option a year from now, there's no incentive to struggle with a new mortgage.</p>

<p>i hope that the median condo price will go from 450k to 300k and that the median sfr will go from 700k to 500k. that won't be too bad for current owners and will make it more reasonable for future buyers.</p>

<p>even w/o any external factors, i'm pretty sure there are a lot of new homeowners who cannot manage their mortgage for another year. and without additional financing as an option, i suspect that prices will fall pretty close to the bottom by the end of 2008.</p>

<p>i'm not so bearish as to think the market will crash, but i do think it will be a lot more reasonable, affordable, and normal in 2009.</p>
 
The last top was 1990 and the last bottom was 1995, a difference of five years. Why would the length of time from top to bottom be any different this time? I don't have a clue as to when the bottom will be and I am not smart enough to recognize it when I see it. I will only recognize the bottom after it has passed. I will buy again when I see the re market trending up, and not on a dead cat bounce.
 
I wonder on a daily basis when this real estate market will finally bottom out. Me and my fiance' also have a wedding to plan and we can't do a wedding and a house purchase in the same year. Its either one or another. I was hoping to get into the market next year but it might still be too early.





Our budget will be around $750K. Any feedbacks on what year 1st time home buyer's such as us should target for? This will help me sleep at night.





Off topic. I had no Idea weddings were that expensive! thats would be a good down payment for a house! She's expecting 250-300 guest.
 
Arctichaze - Congratulations on your upcoming nuptials, (sp?).



I also wonder on a daily basis when the re market will bottom out, but that is just impatience on my part. Have you ever heard of, or read in here, the saying, "Don't try to catch a falling knife." Nice visual, huh? It is going to be difficult to wait, but the bottom may not happen for years, and then it truly won't be recognizable until after the fact. There is another investment saying, "The trend is your friend", in this case meaning wait until you see prices rising. Warren Buffett says the most difficult aspect to investing is waiting. No matter what anyone says, most will consider their homes an investment of one sort or another, maybe the largest investment we ever make. We sold our home in Aug. of 2005 and are now renting and waiting. Waiting is difficult, but it is way better than paying twice as much for interest as we pay for rent, and paying that interest on a depreciating asset. So, for now, we wait and watch. We have some extra popcorn if you want some.
 
<p><em>"I had no Idea weddings were that expensive! thats would be a good down payment for a house! She's expecting 250-300 guest. "</em></p>

<p>How many are <em>you </em>expecting? You're getting married, too...right? </p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
Haha pretty good catch in your part.





75 of the 250 will be on my side of the family she has around 200 on her side. First wedding in her family (oldest of 4 sisters) so her parents want to invite everyone.





Buy yeah WE are expecting around 300 guest
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top