Has the OC Recession Already Begun?

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skeptic_IHB

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<p>Thoughts?</p>

<p>I started this thread because of the following Fed survey ...</p>

<p><a href="http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/17/oc-lost-16000-jobs-in-second-quarter-2007-feds-say/">http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/17/oc-lost-16000-jobs-in-second-quarter-2007-feds-say/</a></p>

<p><strong>Orange County lost 16,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2007</strong> compared to the same period a year earlier, a decline of 1 percent, and was <strong>the only one of the nation’s 10 largest counties to lose jobs during that period</strong>, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said today.</p>

<p>The federal statistics released today show a sharper drop in Orange County employment than what has been reported by the state’s Employment Development Department in its monthly surveys. However, the federal numbers are released several months after state estimates for the same period. For the 12 months through November, EDD estimated that non-farm employment in the county fell by 2,200 jobs, or 0.1 percent.</p>

<p>Back in the second quarter, EDD estimates were showing slight growth — less than 1 percent — in Orange County employment.</p>

<p>The federal numbers are considered more reliable because they are derived from reports submitted by every employer subject to unemployment insurance laws, while the state estimates are based on surveys of a much smaller number of employers. The state uses the federal data to revise its annual estimates each year in February.</p>

<p>Employment in O.C.’s financial activities sector fell by 7.7 percent in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, to 128,100, according to the federal numbers. That was the biggest drop of any sector.</p>

<p>State estimates show O.C.’s financial activities employment down by 5 percent in the 12 months through November, to 131,500 jobs.</p>
 
My uncle is a dentist in Newport, and 5 people have come in this week (all unrelated and in different jobs with different companies) and have stated that they have been recently laid-off.
 
<p>I am in manufacturing (Irvine) and talk to loads of local Suppliers on a weekly basis and always make a point to not only have a laugh and a joke with them (I'm finding it harder to make them laugh) but also ask them how Business is doing, they are far more reliable Barometers than any Gov Charts and statistics...</p>

<p><em> </em>I really noticed the recession starting around last September, everyone was saying they were slowing down then it has just nose-dived since then...</p>

<p><em>Of course all my evidence is purely annecdotal from unreliable sources such as sales people, order takers and Owners <sarcasm button off></em></p>

<p>...I'm also getting inundated with calls from Vendors/suppliers asking how I am doing (very nice of them I must say) and if there is anything we need...this has only started happening the last couple of months, it's come to a point where I have stopped taking outside calls, I just check the messages periodicaly...</p>

<p>Within one mile of where I work, we have <u><strong>five,</strong></u> what used to be Manufacturing Businesses turned into Churches, one Go-Cart Track and a Baseball Batting thingy... hundreds of square feet of what used to be busy, productive, People employing Manufacturing Businesses <strong>GONE !!! </strong>Probably for good would be my guess.</p>

<p>In a Nutshell, Manufacturing ****'ed. Don't expect us to pull everything out of recession....</p>

<p>As a side note, I was getting ready for work this morning and caught a one minute thing on the economy on CNN, unemployment is up, the economy is down, we might be going into a recession etc etc and immediately after I was treated to a <strong>5 </strong>minute segment on Tom 'effing Cruise and that stupid biography that is coming out...so obviously Tom is way more News worthy than the US economy...</p>
 
my dentist has always said recessions are terrible for his business, moreso than for his doctor buddies. when people dont have dental coverage they'll forgo the routine checkups and cleanings. something medical-related you're more likely to suck it up and go to the doctor even if you have to pay the bill yourself.
 
<p><em>Within one mile of where I work, we have <u><strong>five,</strong></u> what used to be Manufacturing Businesses turned into Churches</em></p>

<p>This goes back to my theory of, "become a church - don't pay property taxes". You'll be seeing a ton of new "churches" in the upcoming year.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/pdf/pub48.pdf">http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/pdf/pub48.pdf</a></p>
 
In Information Technology we occasionally need temps to work on large projects. Last Sept, I would get 15 resumes when I request a PC technician. This Jan, so far I get 50 per day.
 
I'm assuming that lost jobs total doesn't include all the 1099 employees gone (from what I've read, it's a significant number). Plus, that probably also doesn't include people who lost their jobs but then took another lower-level job either.





Translation: Not good at all.
 
<p>Yea, i'm getting tired of all these Holly-losers. Make a jillion dollars, and then turn into a retarded second rate wannabe. Even with my few pittance I have, i'm hoping to use some of it to start education grants. It may not be much, maybe books, but at least i'm trying.</p>

<p>As far as economy, things are not going well in southland. WAY too many people depended upon the home sector, of course 99.9999999% of them didn't save anything for a rainy day.</p>

<p>Soooo </p>

<p>anyways good luck</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
<p>Re: education grants - check out <a href="http://www.donorschoose.org/homepage/main.html">http://www.donorschoose.org/homepage/main.html</a></p>

<p>Bascially a website where teachers request stuff for the classroom, you can choose what to fund</p>
 
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