Frustration with Irvine inventory!

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cherry14_IHB

cherry14_IHB

New member
We've been looking for months for a home in Irvine, and I just have to say, it's nuts. The good houses seem to disappear as soon as they hit the market! For example, today we were supposed to see two houses that just came on the market on Thursday or Friday (we couldn't go any earlier). And now they are both pending sale! It's so frustrating! I don't know how we're ever going to find anything.



Okay, just had to let that out.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1243302642]Wait 90 days and watch the inventory skyrocket.</blockquote>


I'll believe that when I see it! I hope you're right though.
 
The inventory is quite low right now--at least the inventory of houses that really are available for sale. With low inventory and inflated prices, this is a poor time to buy.
 
I see your frustration. we were at an open house a little more than a month ago when the agent told us they have multiple offers on hand. It went into escrow a few days later and less than a week on the market. It ended up selling over $350/sq ft. Unfortunatley, I think this happens more often than I thought in certain neighborhoods.



[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1243302642]Wait 90 days and watch the inventory skyrocket.</blockquote>


I would like to know what "skyrocket" means. Is it 20%, 50%, 100%, or some other figure. I hope the expert is right, because I don't see anything signifcantly change in the next 3 months. I expect modest increase in inventory beginning late fall and the increase in sales will not be able to keep pace. Prices will drop in Irvine, but by how much? Depends on whom you ask and believe.
 
Do those that are frustrated need to buy at this very moment? If not just relax, it's not like prices are going higher even with the low amount of current inventory.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1243335731]Depends on whom you ask and believe.</blockquote>


We tend to believe people who look at default and foreclosure data and form opinions based on fact.
 
I've been looking for 6 months. During almost that entire time, I have heard people say not to buy because prices are going to drop, and that inventory is going to increase once all the foreclosures hit the market. But here I am 6 months later, and that has still not happened (at least from my layperson's perspective). Seriously, show me the money already! Some houses do sit on the market for a while, but those seem to be the crappy or overpriced ones. The good ones are going fast. <strong>Look4house</strong>, I wonder if I went to the same open house as you.



I'm not drinking Kool-Aid, and I'm not being pressured by realtors...these are just my observations as a regular person looking for a nice house at a decent price.
 
Cherry, I think you have heard or read enough and there is a one word advice, patience. I agree. I hope to see a widespread drop in the Irvine housing market by the end of this year and unlikely anytime sooner. You will hopefully start to smile with more options by this time next year, even though it certainly won't hit bottom by then. This is strictly my observation and opinion.
 
It will drop. Things tend to go to the extreme before it bottoms. I do not think we have seen anything extreme yet. Nonetheless, I did buy last year at the right time and rate but not at the right price. I had a good 3 months to negotiate and by then interest rate fell for a jumbo. Now, for the same house I do not think I would have had 3 months to mess around. I think the house would sell at the Similiar price that I bot it for. I still think my house is probably worth 20 percent less when it is all said and done.
 
Could you share what price range were you looking at where the houses were selling like hot cakes?



I'm also curious about whether the allegedly upcoming flood of inventory is mostly concentrated in the low end, high end, spread evenly, etc. Yes, I know that in theory the events on the low end propagate to the high end, etc., and that overleveraging and equity extraction was ubiquitous. The thing is, I know quite a bunch of people, that like me, are ready to buy in the mid- or high-end when prices seem reasonable. In other words, there are potential buyers that would base their decision not on whether they can afford the house, but on whether they thing the price is right. So, it wouldn't surprise me if people are jumping the gun on mid- and low-high-end houses. I am seeing the over-supply of low-end inventory (esp. apartments) with my own eyes, but the high-end is yet to come.
 
I've been looking at the $400K price range in Irvine and I can confirm that anything in this price range with 3bed/2bath is quickly snapped up. (although calling a 1,300 sq ft unit a three bed is really pushing it)



The majority of the units i've taken a look at are in woodbridge.



Most are built pre-1980's.



Most do not have central air conditioning.



Most do not have an attached garage.



All are overpriced.
 
[quote author="cherry14" date=1243337157]I've been looking for 6 months. During almost that entire time, I have heard people say not to buy because prices are going to drop, and that inventory is going to increase once all the foreclosures hit the market. But here I am 6 months later, and that has still not happened (at least from my layperson's perspective). Seriously, show me the money already! Some houses do sit on the market for a while, but those seem to be the crappy or overpriced ones. The good ones are going fast. <strong>Look4house</strong>, I wonder if I went to the same open house as you.



I'm not drinking Kool-Aid, and I'm not being pressured by realtors...these are just my observations as a regular person looking for a nice house at a decent price.</blockquote>


There are no guarantees. Maybe you should buy. Or if you think prices will go down, maybe you should stop going to open houses if it upsets you.

What do you think Irvine home prices will do in the next year? Two years? And why?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1243365972][quote author="cherry14" date=1243337157]I've been looking for 6 months. During almost that entire time, I have heard people say not to buy because prices are going to drop, and that inventory is going to increase once all the foreclosures hit the market. But here I am 6 months later, and that has still not happened (at least from my layperson's perspective). Seriously, show me the money already! Some houses do sit on the market for a while, but those seem to be the crappy or overpriced ones. The good ones are going fast. <strong>Look4house</strong>, I wonder if I went to the same open house as you.



I'm not drinking Kool-Aid, and I'm not being pressured by realtors...these are just my observations as a regular person looking for a nice house at a decent price.</blockquote>


There are no guarantees. Maybe you should buy. Or if you think prices will go down, maybe you should stop going to open houses if it upsets you.

What do you think Irvine home prices will do in the next year? Two years? And why?</blockquote>


I'm looking to buy now. I don't know what prices will do, so I'm just going to buy when it's the right time for my family.
 
[quote author="cherry14" date=1243376634][quote author="awgee" date=1243365972][quote author="cherry14" date=1243337157]I've been looking for 6 months. During almost that entire time, I have heard people say not to buy because prices are going to drop, and that inventory is going to increase once all the foreclosures hit the market. But here I am 6 months later, and that has still not happened (at least from my layperson's perspective). Seriously, show me the money already! Some houses do sit on the market for a while, but those seem to be the crappy or overpriced ones. The good ones are going fast. <strong>Look4house</strong>, I wonder if I went to the same open house as you.



I'm not drinking Kool-Aid, and I'm not being pressured by realtors...these are just my observations as a regular person looking for a nice house at a decent price.</blockquote>


There are no guarantees. Maybe you should buy. Or if you think prices will go down, maybe you should stop going to open houses if it upsets you.

What do you think Irvine home prices will do in the next year? Two years? And why?</blockquote>


I'm looking to buy now. I don't know what prices will do, so I'm just going to buy when it's the right time for my family.</blockquote>


Would it upset you if the bears are correct and prices drop 30% after you buy? If so, you should consider this a very real possibility and wait. If this does not bother you, then go ahead and buy. Be careful, because many people who bought in 2007 thought that falling prices would not bother them, and it does.
 
Just want to point out the law that Schwarzenegger passed back in February to impose a statewide moratorium on foreclosures goes into effect at the end of this month. It won't stop all of them but it will most likely slow down the inventory hitting the market. It only affects owner occupied homes where the loan was originated between Jan 1 2003 and Jan 1 2008.



http://markshandrow.com/2009/02/gov-schwarzeneggers-foreclosure-moratorium-explained/



http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/23/BU091634GT.DTL
 
[quote author="cherry14" date=1243376634][quote author="awgee" date=1243365972][quote author="cherry14" date=1243337157]I've been looking for 6 months. During almost that entire time, I have heard people say not to buy because prices are going to drop, and that inventory is going to increase once all the foreclosures hit the market. But here I am 6 months later, and that has still not happened (at least from my layperson's perspective). Seriously, show me the money already! Some houses do sit on the market for a while, but those seem to be the crappy or overpriced ones. The good ones are going fast. <strong>Look4house</strong>, I wonder if I went to the same open house as you.



I'm not drinking Kool-Aid, and I'm not being pressured by realtors...these are just my observations as a regular person looking for a nice house at a decent price.</blockquote>


There are no guarantees. Maybe you should buy. Or if you think prices will go down, maybe you should stop going to open houses if it upsets you.

What do you think Irvine home prices will do in the next year? Two years? And why?</blockquote>


I'm looking to buy now. I don't know what prices will do, so I'm just going to buy when it's the right time for my family.</blockquote>


It makes perfect sense to buy when it is right for your family. And if the time is right for your family, why are you frustrated with the prices? What does it matter what anyone says about prices? What does it matter if anyone says they are going down? Or up?



I think most of the folks on this blog who are waiting have decided that part of what is right for them and their family is buying at somewhere close to the bottom and getting as much house as they can for their money, even if that means waiting. It sounds like waiting for the best price possible is not a big priority for you so why not bid higher? Or do I misunderstand your communication?
 
[quote author="cherry14" date=1243297729]We've been looking for months for a home in Irvine, and I just have to say, it's nuts. The good houses seem to disappear as soon as they hit the market! For example, today we were supposed to see two houses that just came on the market on Thursday or Friday (we couldn't go any earlier). And now they are both pending sale! It's so frustrating! I don't know how we're ever going to find anything.

</blockquote>
Like other posters have requested, can you give us the address of these houses so that we can determine why they are so "hot"?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1243377174][quote author="cherry14" date=1243376634][quote author="awgee" date=1243365972][quote author="cherry14" date=1243337157]I've been looking for 6 months. During almost that entire time, I have heard people say not to buy because prices are going to drop, and that inventory is going to increase once all the foreclosures hit the market. But here I am 6 months later, and that has still not happened (at least from my layperson's perspective). Seriously, show me the money already! Some houses do sit on the market for a while, but those seem to be the crappy or overpriced ones. The good ones are going fast. <strong>Look4house</strong>, I wonder if I went to the same open house as you.



I'm not drinking Kool-Aid, and I'm not being pressured by realtors...these are just my observations as a regular person looking for a nice house at a decent price.</blockquote>


There are no guarantees. Maybe you should buy. Or if you think prices will go down, maybe you should stop going to open houses if it upsets you.

What do you think Irvine home prices will do in the next year? Two years? And why?</blockquote>


I'm looking to buy now. I don't know what prices will do, so I'm just going to buy when it's the right time for my family.</blockquote>


Would it upset you if the bears are correct and prices drop 30% after you buy? If so, you should consider this a very real possibility and wait. If this does not bother you, then go ahead and buy. Be careful, because many people who bought in 2007 thought that falling prices would not bother them, and it does.</blockquote>


Yes, it would bother me, even though I'm thinking of the house just as a place to live and not as an investment. Nobody likes to feel like they got a lousy deal. But the problem is I feel like I could be waiting forever! Over the past 6 months, I've been reading various things that say prices will drop, and to wait. But they haven't! Or maybe they're dropping based on data and graphs or whatever, but it just hasn't translated into the real world yet, at least in my experience. (My price range is $650-$750k, if that makes a difference.) I'm just frustrated. I'm not only looking in Irvine (looking in Laguna Niguel as well), but it seems like the properties in Irvine are the ones being snatched up so quickly.
 
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