[quote author="FutureIrvineResident" date=1240236170][quote author="roundcorners" date=1240185612]What is up with all the newbies itching to buy this week?
Welcome NB; I can probably tell you haven?t started looking; you can?t get a SFR for $500k in Irvine, well nothing newer at least. At that price point, you are probably looking at a town home. Yes you are crazy and are not ready to buy. With your income you will probably spend at least 50% of you income on your house alone. I come up with a total monthly of about $3,800, with the little down you have. I?m not sure how tough it is to get a loan now, but I?m sure the seller will pick someone else with more down. Credit is a start, keep it up, save some more, start researching and looking, go to open houses and really know what you like and don?t like. Try again next year, at least!</blockquote>
how did you come to spending 50% of his income on the house alone? not including tax adjusted i would say it's about $3500. after it being tax adjusted it'd be about $2900.
and here's a $500k 3bd-3ba SFR in the middle of Irvine. wouldn't say it's the newest house at 1965 but it's not that old.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Iron-Bark-Way-92612/home/4699140</blockquote>
It's because the last time this sh*t box sold in 1999, it sold for $194k. His/her inflation adjusted income would be $9500 a month, and the down payment would be adjusted to $38k. Taking the FNMA 6.75% interest rate from 1999, and factoring in .50% adjustment for not having full 20% down, even though it is pretty close... the rate of 7.25% would make his/her DTI a measly 15%. Keep in mind 1999 was not the bottom, it was on the way up. These sh*t boxes sold for less than $100k in 95 and 96, and I bet you could find sales in 96 for $50k. So why in the f'ing world would someone with a $150k income settle for a sh*t box like this, when history shows us they deserves so much better? It's about income and historical values. In fact, IIRC one of these sh*t boxes went back to the bank this week for around $200k.
We are only in the first stage of the downturn in housing. This recession is worse than I expected, and it is worse than the 90s recession. The recovery did not happen until four years after OC saw job growth in the 90s, we saw job growth in 93, 94, 95, and 96, but declines in housing for each of those years. So far we are still on the downside of job growth. This optimism reminds me of 93 when the FED lowered rates, and promoted short term ARMs, and this bubble is twice as worse as the 90s bubble. It was great, because in 95 and 96 the foreclosure purge happened, just like it will in the coming years. Anyone who settles for buying a sh*tty condo on a six figure income now or in the next few years will miss out on the opportunity to buy a great SFR a few years later. Mark my words, a six figure income will get you a SFR in the coming years, and I will be happy to show you my awesome SFR for 20% of my income.