Did I miss something? Will prices ever go down in Irvine?

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I have been patiently waiting for years to buy, when I finally felt it was not highway robbery to buy in Irvine, there was no inventory that we liked.  I have been reading about shadow inventory and foreclosures are on hold; but do you feel it will ever be a buyer's market in Irvine? 

I think for a brief time in 2011 and 2012, I saw a glimpse, but even then, it was not as low as I had hoped.  I know ppl spoke of 250 square ft, but I haven't seen it outside of a short sale.  I suppose I feel maybe I waited too long.  I am trying to buy in Stonegate (Cambria).  Had I known I'd go to the Dark Side (sky-high MR and HOA's), I wish I had bought last year.  Then I could have gotten a San Mateo instead of an attached Cambria.  How do prices go up $50K in one year--looking at San Mateo--Plan 2.  Wow. 
 
It's all supply and demand.  Once resale inventories go back to historical averages and more new housing comes onto the market (Great Park, more PS, more SG, Alderwood, Willow Bend, Cypress Village, OH (hopefully soon),  then we'll see where prices go.  My guess is flat as demand seems so damn high, but who knows.
 
OCgasman said:
It's all supply and demand.  Once resale inventories go back to historical averages and more new housing comes onto the market (Great Park, more PS, more SG, Alderwood, Willow Bend, Cypress Village, OH (hopefully soon),  then we'll see where prices go.  My guess is flat as demand seems so damn high, but who knows.
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Lots of things are driving this supply and demand.  One of which are interest rates.  I agree with what OCgasman said about resale inventories.  Heck, these new houses can't stay new for long, right?
 
It seems the new overlord in China is cracking down on corruption, so lots of money is getting parked in Irvine properties.  I think half of shady canyon is owned by Chinese.  The harder the Chinese government presses, the higher Irvine realestate inflates.
 
I heard the Foreign Cash Buyer aka Chinese are buying up everything in Portola Springs and it's just spilling over to Stonegate.  I've already seen 5 properties in Stonegate for lease. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
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I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
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that is the problem with trying/wanting to cash out during bubblicious times.  you have to move to some place that is less desirable, have to wait who knows how long before the prices come back to earth.  not worth it in my opinion.  if our place went up by 100K in a year i would not sell.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
Click to expand...
I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
Click to expand...

Go USC and Homer! You guys can do it, so cash out while you can ;-) Once you have school going kids, you take two steps ahead, and three back. Won't be easy- I am not saying it can't be done, but it's more work.
 
qwerty said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
Click to expand...
I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
Click to expand...

that is the problem with trying/wanting to cash out during bubblicious times.  you have to move to some place that is less desirable, have to wait who knows how long before the prices come back to earth.  not worth it in my opinion.  if our place went up by 100K in a year i would not sell.
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Qwerty: I think the surrounding areas haven't grown as much as Irvine. There are still buying opportunities in Tustin Ranch/ parts of Santa Ana.. That place off District in Tustin..
 
qwerty said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
Click to expand...
I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
Click to expand...

that is the problem with trying/wanting to cash out during bubblicious times.  you have to move to some place that is less desirable, have to wait who knows how long before the prices come back to earth.  not worth it in my opinion.  if our place went up by 100K in a year i would not sell.
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Yeah, even if I could get $800k I won't sell because I'm tired of moving and the home that I have checks off a lot of the things that I need/want in a home....I'm staying put for a while. 
 
Cubic Zirconia said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
Click to expand...
I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
Click to expand...

Go USC and Homer! You guys can do it, so cash out while you can ;-) Once you have school going kids, you take two steps ahead, and three back. Won't be easy- I am not saying it can't be done, but it's more work.
Click to expand...
It'd be way easier for me to do it than Homer since he is married and has Bart.  I'm just more curious how much I could get for my home.  I love living in my little West Irvine home.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Cubic Zirconia said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
Click to expand...
I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
Click to expand...

Go USC and Homer! You guys can do it, so cash out while you can ;-) Once you have school going kids, you take two steps ahead, and three back. Won't be easy- I am not saying it can't be done, but it's more work.
Click to expand...
It'd be way easier for me to do it than Homer since he is married and has Bart.  I'm just more curious how much I could get for my home.  I love living in my little West Irvine home.
Click to expand...

Can I peg a number? ;-)
Another advantage you have over the rest is, you don't have to pay the Realtor! Can you be the buyer and seller realtor for your own house?
 
Cubic Zirconia said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Cubic Zirconia said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
homer_simpson said:
Sell now or be priced in forever?? wait what??
Click to expand...
I'm almost tempted at listing my home at $800k and see what happens (even though the idea of having to move again makes me sick). 
Click to expand...

Go USC and Homer! You guys can do it, so cash out while you can ;-) Once you have school going kids, you take two steps ahead, and three back. Won't be easy- I am not saying it can't be done, but it's more work.
Click to expand...
It'd be way easier for me to do it than Homer since he is married and has Bart.  I'm just more curious how much I could get for my home.  I love living in my little West Irvine home.
Click to expand...

Can I peg a number? ;-)
Another advantage you have over the rest is, you don't have to pay the Realtor! Can you be the buyer and seller realtor for your own house?
Click to expand...
Easier to be my own listing agent when I sell and my own buyer's agent when I buy, but not as easy as being the buyer's agent when it comes time to sell or lease.  It does save me about 5% (before tax). 
 
Cubic Zirconia said:
off topic, but why are tustin field homes so cheap?
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here is an example of the high mello roos, not tustin field, but close by. technically tustin, but served by irvine schools.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tustin/16602-Bayberry-Rd-92782/home/7202608

the mello roos is about 8,000, or about $666/month in mello roos.  i think the mello roos in stonegate in maricopa was/is about $4,500/year?, the variance of 3,500/year or or about $291/month equates to probably about 80K of purchase price.
 
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