Could irvine's median home price reach a million like it did in Cupertino, ca
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Is Mountain View, and 95% of the volume of the NASDAQ going to relocate right next to Irvine? Because unless all of those very well paid tech company managers, leads, executives, and start-up board members and CEOs move down to Irvine, I don't see it.
Cupertino is a super small fortress city of around 60,000 people smack in the middle of silicon valley. Size-wise, it has more in common with Newport Beach than Irvine. The housing stock is small. The amount of Cupertino homes on the market is around 60-70 a month, and because of the proximity to many high powered high tech giants, they sell fast. For comparison, Irvine usually has more than TEN times that amount of homes on the market, and last time I checked, the job market in Irvine is not comparable to Silicon Valley.
Competition for homes is fierce. Yes the median incomes are similar, but so is the median income for Newport Beach. Do you think Irvine's median will reach Newport Beach levels? Of course not. That's what happens when you have a small sample size, the median can't describe the effect of having $250,000 a year executives, $500,000 a year start up CEOs, and other higher wage earners vying for those 60 homes on the market, because it wasn't meant to, and that's why it's hard to use median income when describing very small, highly desirable places like Newport Beach, San Marino, South Pasadena, and Cupertino.
Irvine is a great city, and that's one of the reasons I bought here so long ago, and although I bash the prices in the area, and the Irvine cheerleaders who think Irvine is "different", I also realize that there is value of living in this city. That being said, I know what Irvine isn't. It isn't Cupertino, Newport Beach, San Marino, or any ultra exclusive, small city. It's a large suburban bedroom community, with more of a white collar tinge to it, but not a place the "super rich" usually try to live if they have other options. That's why in this difficult RE market, prices for sold homes in Irvine have consistently gone down year-over-year since the tax credit, and Cupertino's have gone up.
That being said, are you basing this conclusion on "racial demographics" alone? Because places like Garden Grove and Westminster have tons of asians too. I'm not being snarky, I just really don't understand the correlation you're trying to make.
panda
Well-known member
IndieDev, Give me your reasoning. I posted a thread "Cupertino vs Irvine" couple of hours ago that got erased by a glitch in the system so i am a little lazy now to grab all my numbers to back up my theory.
Here is the demographics profile of Cupertino and Irvine in 1990 and 2010. I find the comparison between Cupertino and Irvine to be facinating. Irvine will become an Asian majority city sometime in 2012 - 2013. I was under the belief that once a city turns majority Asian the area becomes less desirable and the home prices will start to decine, but this is clearly not the case in Cupertino where 63% of it city population is made of Asians. If the median home price hit $1,044,600 in Cupertino... why would it not happen in Irvine. What is it that Cupertino has that Irvine doesn't? Cupertino is a perfect example where the affordability index does not apply compared to its home price. Home/Income ratio is roughly 10 in Cupertino whereas in Irvine it is around 5.
Cupertino median home price : $1,044,600
Irvine median home price : $533,000
Cupertino median income: $119,398 per capita income: $48,994
Irvine median income : $92195 per capita income: $42255
cupertino 1990
white 74.3
asian 23
black 1
hispanic 4.8
irvine 1990
white 68.8
asian 22.1
black 1.8
hispanic 6.8
cupertino 2010
white 31.3
asian 63.3
black 0.6
hispanic 3.6
irvine 2010
white 45.1
asian 39
black 1.6
hispanic 9.2
other 5.1
Here is the demographics profile of Cupertino and Irvine in 1990 and 2010. I find the comparison between Cupertino and Irvine to be facinating. Irvine will become an Asian majority city sometime in 2012 - 2013. I was under the belief that once a city turns majority Asian the area becomes less desirable and the home prices will start to decine, but this is clearly not the case in Cupertino where 63% of it city population is made of Asians. If the median home price hit $1,044,600 in Cupertino... why would it not happen in Irvine. What is it that Cupertino has that Irvine doesn't? Cupertino is a perfect example where the affordability index does not apply compared to its home price. Home/Income ratio is roughly 10 in Cupertino whereas in Irvine it is around 5.
Cupertino median home price : $1,044,600
Irvine median home price : $533,000
Cupertino median income: $119,398 per capita income: $48,994
Irvine median income : $92195 per capita income: $42255
cupertino 1990
white 74.3
asian 23
black 1
hispanic 4.8
irvine 1990
white 68.8
asian 22.1
black 1.8
hispanic 6.8
cupertino 2010
white 31.3
asian 63.3
black 0.6
hispanic 3.6
irvine 2010
white 45.1
asian 39
black 1.6
hispanic 9.2
other 5.1
irvinerealtor
Well-known member
Panda,
You're chasing the wrong numbers here.
In 1990, there was no internet. No email. Nada.
My Apple IIc was state of the art.
Bo Jackson was unstoppable in Tecmo Bowl on Nintendo.
Apple has stuck around.
Bo knows banking, now.
Is it possible? Anything is possible.
Will it be because of the racial profiles of the neighborhoods? You make the call...
-IR2
You're chasing the wrong numbers here.
In 1990, there was no internet. No email. Nada.
My Apple IIc was state of the art.
Bo Jackson was unstoppable in Tecmo Bowl on Nintendo.
Apple has stuck around.
Bo knows banking, now.
Is it possible? Anything is possible.
Will it be because of the racial profiles of the neighborhoods? You make the call...
-IR2
IndieDev
New member
Panda said:
Is Mountain View, and 95% of the volume of the NASDAQ going to relocate right next to Irvine? Because unless all of those very well paid tech company managers, leads, executives, and start-up board members and CEOs move down to Irvine, I don't see it.
Cupertino is a super small fortress city of around 60,000 people smack in the middle of silicon valley. Size-wise, it has more in common with Newport Beach than Irvine. The housing stock is small. The amount of Cupertino homes on the market is around 60-70 a month, and because of the proximity to many high powered high tech giants, they sell fast. For comparison, Irvine usually has more than TEN times that amount of homes on the market, and last time I checked, the job market in Irvine is not comparable to Silicon Valley.
Competition for homes is fierce. Yes the median incomes are similar, but so is the median income for Newport Beach. Do you think Irvine's median will reach Newport Beach levels? Of course not. That's what happens when you have a small sample size, the median can't describe the effect of having $250,000 a year executives, $500,000 a year start up CEOs, and other higher wage earners vying for those 60 homes on the market, because it wasn't meant to, and that's why it's hard to use median income when describing very small, highly desirable places like Newport Beach, San Marino, South Pasadena, and Cupertino.
Irvine is a great city, and that's one of the reasons I bought here so long ago, and although I bash the prices in the area, and the Irvine cheerleaders who think Irvine is "different", I also realize that there is value of living in this city. That being said, I know what Irvine isn't. It isn't Cupertino, Newport Beach, San Marino, or any ultra exclusive, small city. It's a large suburban bedroom community, with more of a white collar tinge to it, but not a place the "super rich" usually try to live if they have other options. That's why in this difficult RE market, prices for sold homes in Irvine have consistently gone down year-over-year since the tax credit, and Cupertino's have gone up.
That being said, are you basing this conclusion on "racial demographics" alone? Because places like Garden Grove and Westminster have tons of asians too. I'm not being snarky, I just really don't understand the correlation you're trying to make.
panda
Well-known member
IndieDev,
Those are some good points you are bringing up of why Irvine isn't Cupertino.
I am not making a comparison to Garden Grove, Westminister, Monterey Park, or Cerritos as the household income and per capita is not in par with that of Irvine. What suprises me is that I always thought that once a city starts to become majority Asian, the area becomes less desirable and home price would fall. This is not case with Cupertino which has an affluent household base. How do you think the desirability and home prices of Irvine would change if the racial make up is the same as what Cupertino is today? 31% White / 63% Asian. I think that Irvine's racial make up will look similar to that of Cupertino by 2020. What do you think?
Those are some good points you are bringing up of why Irvine isn't Cupertino.
I am not making a comparison to Garden Grove, Westminister, Monterey Park, or Cerritos as the household income and per capita is not in par with that of Irvine. What suprises me is that I always thought that once a city starts to become majority Asian, the area becomes less desirable and home price would fall. This is not case with Cupertino which has an affluent household base. How do you think the desirability and home prices of Irvine would change if the racial make up is the same as what Cupertino is today? 31% White / 63% Asian. I think that Irvine's racial make up will look similar to that of Cupertino by 2020. What do you think?
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
Cupertino and Irvine are not even in the same league. Although both share similar school, safety, racial similarities but the 2 cities are drastically different in employment, economic, politic, amenities, and supply/demand.
Primary reason for high average home prices is based on supply and demand. No new detached homes were built the last 15 years due to Silicon Valley's strict environmental and planning land use. This forced the Asian homebuyers to choose 2 decade old communities such as Cupertino and mission San Jose for the relatively new homes in the area. Cream of the crop employers recruiting staff from Stanford, Berkeley, and Santa Clara made South Bay the home to many high salary mid managements.
Developers and builders do not control the city. Silicon Valley is hostile to master planned communities in the last 10 years after seeing the detrimental effect caused by the Southern California mcmansion movement in the local hills and ridgeline. The Local politic is pro affordability and only high density podium housing satisfy the economic goal. New detached home project is extremely rare and extremely difficult to process through local jurisdiction. The lack of supply and high demand are the reasons for a such a high resale average price.
The average time for an Irvine project to be processed in the city is about 9 months while in Silicon Valley is 5 years of revisions and refinements. The final selling price must reflect the accumulative administrative cost and carrying cost of the land.
We see retail business closures in Irvine and not as drastic in the Silicon Valley. in Irvine the buyers become house poor and are forced to cut retail and restaurant expenditures. It is not so true for the South Bay. Business stability, positive employment outlook and job security fuel the positive buying attitude among homebuyers where in Irvine the buyers do not have the confidence employment security and housing price stabilization.
In Irvine housing supply is unlimited with another 25 years land supply. A single monopoly and full government control leverage home prices beyond the pace of average income affordability. Average home prices is not only driven by supply and demand but also the kind of housing stock in the new and resale market. Irvine has quite a bit of attached projects with a lowered price point that drags down the average price. Santa Clara, Santa Rosa, Santa Maria and Monterey are just a few of the attached projects.
Panda's simple mind did not take in the account of the real intrinsic forces that shape the market and merely interpreting conclusion from data is what set the amateurs from the specialists.
Primary reason for high average home prices is based on supply and demand. No new detached homes were built the last 15 years due to Silicon Valley's strict environmental and planning land use. This forced the Asian homebuyers to choose 2 decade old communities such as Cupertino and mission San Jose for the relatively new homes in the area. Cream of the crop employers recruiting staff from Stanford, Berkeley, and Santa Clara made South Bay the home to many high salary mid managements.
Developers and builders do not control the city. Silicon Valley is hostile to master planned communities in the last 10 years after seeing the detrimental effect caused by the Southern California mcmansion movement in the local hills and ridgeline. The Local politic is pro affordability and only high density podium housing satisfy the economic goal. New detached home project is extremely rare and extremely difficult to process through local jurisdiction. The lack of supply and high demand are the reasons for a such a high resale average price.
The average time for an Irvine project to be processed in the city is about 9 months while in Silicon Valley is 5 years of revisions and refinements. The final selling price must reflect the accumulative administrative cost and carrying cost of the land.
We see retail business closures in Irvine and not as drastic in the Silicon Valley. in Irvine the buyers become house poor and are forced to cut retail and restaurant expenditures. It is not so true for the South Bay. Business stability, positive employment outlook and job security fuel the positive buying attitude among homebuyers where in Irvine the buyers do not have the confidence employment security and housing price stabilization.
In Irvine housing supply is unlimited with another 25 years land supply. A single monopoly and full government control leverage home prices beyond the pace of average income affordability. Average home prices is not only driven by supply and demand but also the kind of housing stock in the new and resale market. Irvine has quite a bit of attached projects with a lowered price point that drags down the average price. Santa Clara, Santa Rosa, Santa Maria and Monterey are just a few of the attached projects.
Panda's simple mind did not take in the account of the real intrinsic forces that shape the market and merely interpreting conclusion from data is what set the amateurs from the specialists.
panda
Well-known member
Irvinehomeshopper and IndieDev,
I will admit that I know very little about the silicon valley housing market except for what i see on the internet. I appreciate your insight on Cupertino and how the comparison is not apples to apples to that of Irvine. Irvinehomeshopper, perhaps Irvine's job market is not as strong as silicon valley, but surely Irvine has established itself as "THE CENTRAL JOB HUB" of Orange County, especially for tech professionals. Also TIC can control and stop the housing supply anytime as they please. The builders are the ones who are hurting, not the Irvine Company.
One similarity you cannot deny is that both Irvine and Cupertino have become a magnet city for affluent Asian households. What is the reason why Cupertino has experienced one of the fastest accelerated Asian population growth in the last 15 years compared to the surrounding cities like Mountain View, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale etc. ? Do either of you know?
I will admit that I know very little about the silicon valley housing market except for what i see on the internet. I appreciate your insight on Cupertino and how the comparison is not apples to apples to that of Irvine. Irvinehomeshopper, perhaps Irvine's job market is not as strong as silicon valley, but surely Irvine has established itself as "THE CENTRAL JOB HUB" of Orange County, especially for tech professionals. Also TIC can control and stop the housing supply anytime as they please. The builders are the ones who are hurting, not the Irvine Company.
One similarity you cannot deny is that both Irvine and Cupertino have become a magnet city for affluent Asian households. What is the reason why Cupertino has experienced one of the fastest accelerated Asian population growth in the last 15 years compared to the surrounding cities like Mountain View, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale etc. ? Do either of you know?
irvinehomeshopper said:
traceimage
New member
Interesting question, Panda. Indie and irvinehomeshopper have made some good points.
And being a larger city than Cupertino, Irvine will always have less desirable areas, like El Camino Glen and Orangetree (where Asians don't necessarily want to live) bringing down the median.
And being a larger city than Cupertino, Irvine will always have less desirable areas, like El Camino Glen and Orangetree (where Asians don't necessarily want to live) bringing down the median.
IndieDev
New member
Cupertino and Irvine are just two different cities. Yes they both have gained a lot of asians in the past two decades. But other than that, any other implied similarities are reaching at best. This is honestly the first time I've even heard of people comparing the two cities because they are so different besides the fact that they are both coincidentally being invaded by asians. Maybe it's the schools? Who knows? I heard Chindians love great public schooling.
Irvine has more in common with Walnut Creek, or Danville when it comes to NorCal cities. All are white collar, suburban bedroom communities, with great schools, and low crime rates.
Irvine has more in common with Walnut Creek, or Danville when it comes to NorCal cities. All are white collar, suburban bedroom communities, with great schools, and low crime rates.
irvinehomeshopper
Well-known member
Westmister, Garden Grove, Monterey Park, Cerritos and Irvine are full service cities with business infrastructure where as Cupertino is still a bedroom communities without much of the commercial elements that attracts the negative trades of societies.
All of the above except for Cupertino the Asian whores are about $50-$150 and cheaper yet about $30 for local university students. Courthouses are busy prosecuting Asian sex trades busted in these cities. Cupertino has a relatively clean record. Could this be the reason for $1m average home prices?
All of the above except for Cupertino the Asian whores are about $50-$150 and cheaper yet about $30 for local university students. Courthouses are busy prosecuting Asian sex trades busted in these cities. Cupertino has a relatively clean record. Could this be the reason for $1m average home prices?
Panda said:
IndieDev
New member
I don't know if Cupertino has a problem with asian sex selling, but I know neighboring Mountain View used to have a problem with massage parlor sex. Jerry Rice (for you Bay Area die hards in the know) was caught in one in MV, but apparently wasn't getting the "happy ending" special.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I did some work up in the Bay Area back in my public accounting days. I'm not a big fan of the Bay Area at all. Fun place to visit? Sure, but I'd never live there. Way too cold and windy, lack of women (especially attractive women), and worse traffic than down here. So Cal FTW!
