Conversations from the Holidays

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roundcorners_IHB

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Hello everyone, it's good to be back after taking a break from the IHB; over Christmas, we have been to four get together/parties, one co-ed baby shower and a few family reunions. Most talks were centered around the economy. I was surprise that my step father in-law was able to go ahead with retirement plans; my own father is also able to retire in May. A few peers no surprises were laid off, mostly in IT, sales and finance. Most of my 08 graduating class is still working where they are, only one promotion really. Around the rooms, I say 1 in 5 is unemployed, and activity looking. This is the funniest conversation, at the shower, one guest (ex-mortgage consultant) was trying to push debt consolation, and loan mods to other guests who are upside down in their homes. She shows homes, but when asked is not a licensed realtor. The owner of the town home where the party was held, is upside down and is quite worried about the ARM that is about to adjust next April although his work as a IP Attorney still pays well from what I could gather. Mostly, everyone simply baked cookies as gifts and we mostly settled with cold finger foods and simple appetizers, no substantial meals. Oh, well, I hope more of you out there had more enjoyable times and conversations.
 
"This is the funniest conversation, at the shower, one guest (ex-mortgage consultant) was trying to push debt consolation, and loan mods to other guests who are upside down in their homes. She shows homes, but when asked is not a licensed realtor."



I would be interested to know how this person is doing. How old is she? Is she set for life after making a lot of money (at the US taxpayers expense) during the bubble?



Also, for you '08 graduates, buy a backpack and travel around for a while. The economy ain't going anywhere anytime soon, but being single & unempoyed will most likely be a rare occurence in your life. No future employer is going to look at the employment gap in your resume and say "why weren't you working then?" Do it now or regret it later.
 
[quote author="Major Schadenfreude" date=1230630575]"This is the funniest conversation, at the shower, one guest (ex-mortgage consultant) was trying to push debt consolation, and loan mods to other guests who are upside down in their homes. She shows homes, but when asked is not a licensed realtor."



I would be interested to know how this person is doing. How old is she? Is she set for life after making a lot of money (at the US taxpayers expense) during the bubble?



Also, for you '08 graduates, buy a backpack and travel around for a while. The economy ain't going anywhere anytime soon, but being single & unempoyed will most likely be a rare occurence in your life. No future employer is going to look at the employment gap in your resume and say "why weren't you working then?" Do it now or regret it later.</blockquote>




She was quite shady, I didn't push it, but my guess is that she was some sort of assistant at some mortgage company. I don't think she made much money during the boom. She's somewhere in her late 20s. She just got the debt consolidation gig. She was still trying to get people into $250k, homes in Buena Park and La Mirada, as a ?realtor assistant?, how funny was that?



I hear you on traveling; but the problem is that, it was grad school and most classmates are married with children and now huge amounts of loans...
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1230633195][quote author="Major Schadenfreude" date=1230630575]"This is the funniest conversation, at the shower, one guest (ex-mortgage consultant) was trying to push debt consolation, and loan mods to other guests who are upside down in their homes. She shows homes, but when asked is not a licensed realtor."



I would be interested to know how this person is doing. How old is she? Is she set for life after making a lot of money (at the US taxpayers expense) during the bubble?



Also, for you '08 graduates, buy a backpack and travel around for a while. The economy ain't going anywhere anytime soon, but being single & unempoyed will most likely be a rare occurence in your life. No future employer is going to look at the employment gap in your resume and say "why weren't you working then?" Do it now or regret it later.</blockquote>




She was quite shady, I didn't push it, but my guess is that she was some sort of assistant at some mortgage company. I don't think she made much money during the boom. She's somewhere in her late 20s. She just got the debt consolidation gig. She was still trying to get people into $250k, homes in Buena Park and La Mirada, as a ?realtor assistant?, how funny was that?



I hear you on traveling; but the problem is that, it was grad school and most classmates are married with children and now huge amounts of loans...</blockquote>
It doesn't take a expert to get a real estate license. Tell me that she's at least cute and an idiot.
 
[quote author="Major Schadenfreude" date=1230630575]"This is the funniest conversation, at the shower, one guest (ex-mortgage consultant) was trying to push debt consolation, and loan mods to other guests who are upside down in their homes. She shows homes, but when asked is not a licensed realtor."



I would be interested to know how this person is doing. How old is she? Is she set for life after making a lot of money (at the US taxpayers expense) during the bubble?



Also, for you '08 graduates, buy a backpack and travel around for a while. The economy ain't going anywhere anytime soon, but being single & unempoyed will most likely be a rare occurence in your life. No future employer is going to look at the employment gap in your resume and say "why weren't you working then?" Do it now or regret it later.</blockquote>


I'd go further to suggest that even if you have a significant other, now is still a great time to see the world. It might even be safer and more fun with a boyfriend/girlfriend or spouse. What really changes things, even when you are single, is when you become a parent.
 
we just let alot of people and a few engineers go on the 20 of this month. It was funny because they let go of about 4 engineers who are the heart and soul of the actuator design group. These 4 guys have at a minimum 30 years of experience designing actuators each. Its funny because they went to our nearest competitor and signed right on.



there are alot of jobs for a engineer who can travel. Specifically engineers with a top secret/SSBI/SCI and CRYPTO clearances. That is my out, but it will take me away from my wife. We will see.



Othewise just alot of talk about laying off engineers and where the jobs. Ironically there are alot of retirements, so there are quite a few jobs.

-bix
 
"I?d go further to suggest that even if you have a significant other, now is still a great time to see the world. It might even be safer and more fun with a boyfriend/girlfriend or spouse."



If you are with someone you are considering to be your life mate, then "rough it" by getting the Eurail Pass, staying in hostels, and keeping the itenerary loose. Travelling is more fun, but also more stressful as decisions must be made on the fly and frequently plans are foiled. If your companionship can survive a couple months of this footloose existence, it will most likely survive the other curveballs that life will throw at you.
 
[quote author="biscuitninja" date=1230637748]we just let alot of people and a few engineers go on the 20 of this month. It was funny because they let go of about 4 engineers who are the heart and soul of the actuator design group. These 4 guys have at a minimum 30 years of experience designing actuators. Its funny because they went to our nearest competitor and signed right on.



there are alot of jobs for a engineer who can travel. Specifically engineers with a top secret/SSBI/SCI and CRYPTO clearances. That is my out, but it will take me away from my wife. We will see.



Othewise just alot of talk about laying off engineers and where the jobs. Ironically there are alot of retirements, so there are quite a few jobs.

-bix</blockquote>


At least they didn't layoff the engineers in charge of the flux capacitors. That could lead to some serious setbacks.



BTW, I wonder what happened to the poster with the screen name of Marty McFly? Heh... he must have bought in 2005, and could no longer take seeing how us IHBers were right any longer.
 
[quote author="biscuitninja" date=1230637748]These 4 guys have at a minimum 30 years of experience designing actuators. Its funny because they went to our nearest competitor and signed right on.

</blockquote>


Dilbert really is true isn't it?
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1230683666][quote author="biscuitninja" date=1230637748]These 4 guys have at a minimum 30 years of experience designing actuators. Its funny because they went to our nearest competitor and signed right on.

</blockquote>


Dilbert really is true isn't it?</blockquote>


Yes, Dilbert is actually developed from emails and letters, SENT IN! And i forgot to add, that each guy has 30 years at a min. EACH.



I'm currently trying to sign on with the other company also, but we will see.

-bix
 
My most interesting experience was New Year's Eve. We wanted to get dinner at a nice place, and then probably go somewhere else to a bar close to home for a drink around midnight.



Since all of the places mentioned are public bars and restaurants, I hope they don't mind me naming names.



1. Riviera in Calabasas. Nice food, good winelist. Wouldn't even have thought about trying to get into here for last New Year's Eve. About 80% full when we got there. No problem being served without reservations. As usual, the staff was knowledgeable and friendly. They seemed to have a bit more time to discuss things. Even more interesting, six different people (bartenders, waiters, wine steward, manager, etc.) all checked in on us. I got the feeling they were doing decently well (not floating in business but still making money), and really wanted to keep it that way.



2. Villa Piacere in Woodland Hills. Good food and wine. Near our house and we had been there before for a midnight toast. $25 per person cover including music. Maybe 50% full. We weren't up for one drink each which would probably cost us $35 including the cover. We moved on.



3. Maggiano's in Woodland Hills. Nice Italian food. Was really crowded in 2006 when we went there for New Years, hundreds of people. This year, closed early. No New Year's celebration.



4. Flemmings. High end steakhouse. 20% full at the bar.



5. Roy's. Hawaiian food. Also not many people.



6. BJ's. Brewery and sports bar. 10-15% full.



7. Home. Where we actually ended up. Comfortable place. Allows dogs indoors on the sofa and has a fireplace. Pretty nice, especially after going to those other places.



8. In-N-Out. Went out for a late night burger. Of course, plenty of people there. I've never been to a completely In-N-Out, regardles of the time of day or day of the week.
 
From the various conversations I had this Holiday and before; do you guys get a consensus that most if not all people you talk to don't have any clue on when the bottom of the real estate might possibly be. Granted most are probably not as interested in real estate as the average IHBer; but common can?t you do a little research? I believe the general public has no metrics on how to measure when is the right time to jump into the market. I'm gathering that buying a house is still purely an emotional decision that fits lifestyle, personal timing and savings. That unfortunately this is what is still driving the knife-catching market. Most smart, college educated peers are still basing their single largest purchase on "gut feeling", without doing much research, and leaving it up to the "professionals" (realtors).
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1230994402]From the various conversations I had this Holiday and before; do you guys get a consensus that most if not all people you talk to don't have any clue on when the bottom of the real estate might possibly be. Granted most are probably not as interested in real estate as the average IHBer; but common can?t you do a little research? I believe the general public has no metrics on how to measure when is the right time to jump into the market. I'm gathering that buying a house is still purely an emotional decision that fits lifestyle, personal timing and savings. That unfortunately this is what is still driving the knife-catching market. Most smart, college educated peers are still basing their single largest purchase on "gut feeling", without doing much research, and leaving it up to the "professionals" (realtors).</blockquote>


This is also true of most policymakers. They either don't know, or don't want to hear, what the fundamentals are for home prices.



It has gotten vastly easier for intelligent nonspecialists to do genuine research on real estate. Four years ago it was quite hard, and I had to do a lot of original research. Even now, there is the onslaught of MSM, NAR, Kudlow and other purveyors of cheerleading, shallow analysis, and/or disinformation. Have you noticed that Prof Shiller doesn't have his own show? Roubini? Krugman?
 
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