Considering new purchase in VOC (Ciara) - Looking for advice

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bbyikes_IHB

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Hello All - I've been reading the blogs here for some time and appreciate all the sage advice given to members. Having said that, my wife and I are considering purchasing the last Ciara home in the tract. It is a plan 2 (4237 sq ft) mostly on one level - i think most of you are familiar with it. It has about $75K of pre-plotted options (though we value those options at closer to $50K since we would not have otherwise purchased some of those). It is being offered for $1.15M, though i believe they would be willing to take substantially less - maybe $1.05-1.1M? Throw in the $10K CA tax rebate for new homes and the $15K my realtor is willing to kick back to me and it probably works out to about around $975K base (if you back out the cost of the options). This represents about a 33% discount from the peak prices of mid $1.4M base back in late '06. $975K also works out to about 230/sq ft. So it seems like a very good deal. But,....



The drawbacks:



1. SMALL back yard. Although the lot size is large (a little over 7700 sq ft), the footprint of the house is also very big and this particular lot (lot 2) has I think the smallest backyard in the tract. it's only about 12 feet from the back of the house to the retaining wall.



2. Backs to the channel. Can't decide if this is a plus or minus. No houses behind, which is nice especially considering the small yard, so there's no one looking down on you. But, then again also closer to Jamboree noise and possible odor from channel?? Supposed bike or walking path back there also looks completely un-maintained.



3. Possible short-sale/foreclosures in the tract and community that may pressure prices downward? Most homes sold in 06/07 at peak prices. Getting a 33% discount, but still room to fall?



4. View... of the weeds, public storage and hangers. Not great.



So what do you all think?? I LOVE the floorplan, but not the lot. Should we take the plunge or does anyone think prices will fall much farther?



Thanks all.
 
I think it's a mistake to buy a $1MM+ home in the next 6 months. I still think rates will drop as well as prices. There is nothing happening in the economy that suggests the drops will stop anytime soon.



I am just moving to Irvine from Seattle and I can tell you I wanted to buy a house really badly but after reflection my desire was purely emotional and not rational. Whatever money you put into the house now is just going to disappear as the market falls.



Just my 2cents.
 
Is a million dollars not considered a lot of money anymore? If I knew nothing about Orange County and just read your description of the home, I would say you should be paying no more than $350,000 for it.
 
Ugh, 12 feet from the house to a flood channel with a practical super highway... You get first dibs on the waste management transfer station aroma too. All for $1M, what a bargain!



How much is the mello roo load? $9K per year? If you are jonesing to spend $1M, you money might be better spent on properties in nicer neighborhoods with lower MRs.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1237705132]Ugh, 12 feet from the house to a flood channel with a practical super highway... You get first dibs on the waste management transfer station aroma too. All for $1M, what a bargain!



How much is the mello roo load? $9K per year? If you are jonesing to spend $1M, you money might be better spent on properties in nicer neighborhoods with lower MRs.</blockquote>


IPO hit the nail on the head! You can practically choose any neighborhood in Irvine with your budget. Why you choose VOC over all other TIC communities ( new or old) ? do a "search" on VOC, there are a lot of discussions already have been done on this board. I won't repeat here.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1237703547]Is a million dollars not considered a lot of money anymore? If I knew nothing about Orange County and just read your description of the home, I would say you should be paying no more than $350,000 for it.</blockquote>


It is a lot of money, and he hasn't been doing his due diligence except reading internet message boards.
 
[quote author="bbyikes" date=1237690002]Hello All - I've been reading the blogs here for some time and appreciate all the sage advice given to members. Having said that, my wife and I are considering purchasing the last Ciara home in the tract. It is a plan 2 (4237 sq ft) mostly on one level - i think most of you are familiar with it. It has about $75K of pre-plotted options (though we value those options at closer to $50K since we would not have otherwise purchased some of those). It is being offered for $1.15M, though i believe they would be willing to take substantially less - maybe $1.05-1.1M? Throw in the $10K CA tax rebate for new homes and the $15K my realtor is willing to kick back to me and it probably works out to about around $975K base (if you back out the cost of the options). This represents about a 33% discount from the peak prices of mid $1.4M base back in late '06. $975K also works out to about 230/sq ft. So it seems like a very good deal. But,....



The drawbacks:



1. SMALL back yard. Although the lot size is large (a little over 7700 sq ft), the footprint of the house is also very big and this particular lot (lot 2) has I think the smallest backyard in the tract. it's only about 12 feet from the back of the house to the retaining wall.



2. Backs to the channel. Can't decide if this is a plus or minus. No houses behind, which is nice especially considering the small yard, so there's no one looking down on you. But, then again also closer to Jamboree noise and possible odor from channel?? Supposed bike or walking path back there also looks completely un-maintained.



3. Possible short-sale/foreclosures in the tract and community that may pressure prices downward? Most homes sold in 06/07 at peak prices. Getting a 33% discount, but still room to fall?



4. View... of the weeds, public storage and hangers. Not great.



So what do you all think?? I LOVE the floorplan, but not the lot. Should we take the plunge or does anyone think prices will fall much farther?



Thanks all.</blockquote>
Do yourself a favor and buy a slightly small home in Quail Hill, Tustin Ranch, Northpark, or Oak Creek if you want to stay in the TIC area. $1MM for a home in VOC??? No thanks! For doing no work, your realtor should be kicking you back 2/3 of their commission (there is literally no work that the buyer's agent does on new home sales other than hand the sales person their business card).
 
The MR is very high, but someone tell me where else I can get 4237 sq ft, with about 3300 sq ft on the first floor, including the master bd?



What are you going to get in QH for about $1M even these days? A 2800 sq ft Tapestry, no thanks. You can't get a Sienna for $1M. Or you can get a 2800 sq ft Saratoga in NP - again not exactly a steal. I grant you that those neighborhoods are nicer, but the homes are not even in the same league, and VOC is literally across the street from Westpark.



And to AsianInvasion - I've a ton of diligence in the Irvine neighborhoods and know more about them than you ever will. I'm just trying to people takes on this so chill out...
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1237700995]If you need to ask strangers on the internet what to do then you should probably forget the whole thing.</blockquote>


If you have nothing valuable to say, just shut up.



This is a forum of stranger talking to strange over the Internet...
 
[quote author="bbyikes" date=1237712097]The MR is very high, but someone tell me where else I can get 4237 sq ft, with about 3300 sq ft on the first floor, including the master bd?



What are you going to get in QH for about $1M even these days? A 2800 sq ft Tapestry, no thanks. You can't get a Sienna for $1M. Or you can get a 2800 sq ft Saratoga in NP - again not exactly a steal. I grant you that those neighborhoods are nicer, but the homes are not even in the same league, and VOC is literally across the street from Westpark.



And to AsianInvasion - I've a ton of diligence in the Irvine neighborhoods and know more about them than you ever will. I'm just trying to people takes on this so chill out...</blockquote>


it appears that you have made up your mind as why VOC is better than other choices. Just a friendly reminder: you are the one who asked the question, and people here are just nice enough to help out as this is how this board works. You seem to want the validation instead of advise. As i said before, if you do a search, you will find out the subject of VOC has been extensively discussed: there are very few VOC fans here. There is old saying: you get what you pay for.
 
irvine123 - you are absolutely right. and i am sorry if i came off as defensive. i do appreciate those on this board who give their two cents. it's just comments like "he hasn?t been doing his due diligence except reading internet message boards" are not particularly helpful. i will look in previous posts for the voc vs irvine debate and consider what people had to say. thanks.
 
it also just occurred to me that my question really wasn't about the voc vs. irvine debate - it was actually about whether people think prices still have a ways to go down. my initial point was that the ciara house has already been discounted about 33% from its peak 06/07 price. was wondering if people thought there was still substantial downside risk. sorry if i wasn't clear in my initial post and that we got so off-topic. thanks.
 
[quote author="bbyikes" date=1237715493]it also just occurred to me that my question really wasn't about the voc vs. irvine debate - it was actually about whether people think prices still have a ways to go down. my initial point was that the ciara house has already been discounted about 33% from its peak 06/07 price. was wondering if people thought there was still substantial downside risk. sorry if i wasn't clear in my initial post and that we got so off-topic. thanks.</blockquote>


you need to decide you want value/size for your money or quality for your money. Those two doesn't go hand to hand. If you just want the biggest size of house, that is probably among the cheapest you can find in irvine for 4300 sq ft. Will price continue to go down from $975? I would say probably no more than another 10% to 15% if there is no blow up of any enviromental issues. IMO, VOC will always be the "value" neighborhood in Irvine until another similar one pops out.
 
thanks for the 2 cents. i am on the fence as to whether prices will fall considerably from these levels. i do have concern as to whether foreclosures of the unlucky ones who bought near the peak and are forced to sell will have significant downward pressure on prices.



as an aside, and this is probably debatable, but imo west irvine is, and will always be, the "value" neighborhood of irvine. there is a downside in not having an hoa. for me, i'd rather live in voc, even though it's in tustin.
 
bbyikes, those are really nice homes. I don't think VOC is a bad neighborhood unless you are next to the main road or power lines. I just didn't like the Mello Roos. You're probably looking at close to $20k a year with taxes and HOA. My guess is that you're probably looking at another 15% to 25% down so if you can live with that, go for it. I am still sitting out waiting for a better deal. Good luck!
 
[quote author="bbyikes" date=1237712097]The MR is very high, but someone tell me where else I can get 4237 sq ft, with about 3300 sq ft on the first floor, including the master bd?



What are you going to get in QH for about $1M even these days? A 2800 sq ft Tapestry, no thanks. You can't get a Sienna for $1M. Or you can get a 2800 sq ft Saratoga in NP - again not exactly a steal. I grant you that those neighborhoods are nicer, but the homes are not even in the same league, and VOC is literally across the street from Westpark.



And to AsianInvasion - I've a ton of diligence in the Irvine neighborhoods and know more about them than you ever will. I'm just trying to people takes on this so chill out...</blockquote>


It's not just purchase price to consider... The much higher MRs in VoC are probably equivalent to an extra $100K per year in mortgage. I assume this $1M on the Ciara place is completely without landscaping right? I think the question might be what can you get somewhere else for $1.15M. Not 4000sf, but probably 3600-3800 sf in a nice Irvine area.



VoC, just like the rest of Irvine, still has downside. That $1M Ciara could be $800-850K at bottom. Just because VoC has fallen harder and faster doesn't mean its closer to the bottom. It just means that it is less desireable and doesn't hold its value nearly has well as other Irvine areas. Even West Irvine SFRs haven't fallen 33% yet... Some of the older value village SFRs in places like Walnut and El Camino have. They are don't hold up as well mostly due to age. When VoC ages, it will have the double whammy of being poorly located and no longer being new.
 
IPO that's what I was thinking, the MR and all the other fees just kill ya every day.... for the rest of the time you own the house.



All those extra fees never really go away and can be a burden on your bottom line. If it were me, i'd probably look at someplace close to the ocean for that price. But that's just me. Plus with the recent raise in taxes, i'd be looking to pull back a little bit just in case they decide to tweak the rates up. It doesn't take much % to make those taxes REALLY painful.

Well let us know what you do, and go luck with your decision.

-bix
 
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