Case-Shiller index

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IIIrvine_IHB

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Prices dropped 1.1% in Los Angeles, or a 14% annual rate. (unfortunately, CSI does not distinguish between OC and LA).





http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-prices-go-negative-first/story.aspx?guid=%7B30B54985%2D2189%2D4AE9%2DB8E5%2DECF89F6095F3%7D&dist=TNMostRead



 
Did anyone see <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html">today's numbers</a>? 3.6% drop in one month, which I believe is the largest on record for LA/OC. Things see to be picking up steam.
 
Only a 3.1% drop <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html">this month</a>.


That's 11.1% over the last six months.


And check out our <a href="http://piggington.com/another_bad_month_for_the_case_shiller_hpi">leading-indicator neighbor to the south</a>. Low-end SD homes are now off more than 30% from their inflation-adjusted highs.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1204089530]Escrow openings in Irvine are increasing.</blockquote>


April's decline as measured by CS in the LA MSA was 2.2%. The last time month-over-month declines were under 3% was October, i.e. the pace of declines slowed considerably in April.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1214344725][quote author="awgee" date=1204089530]Escrow openings in Irvine are increasing.</blockquote>


April's decline as measured by CS in the LA MSA was 2.2%. The last time month-over-month declines were under 3% was October, i.e. the pace of declines slowed considerably in April.</blockquote>


Woohoo! let's party, the decline has slowed to a measely 29.8% annual rate...







With a April median of $500,000, the 'averge' homeowner lost $11,000 in April.



I wonder how that compares to their take home pay?



Oops, my bad, that's -23.4% per year. Compounding a negative return automatically decreases the loss as the equity gets smaller each cycle.
 
HousingTracker.net is showing a huge bump in inventory and a sharp decline in asking prices also. 2000 more houses on the market in one week? It almost makes me think they changed something with how they count inventory.



Date Inventory

(SFH + Condo) 25th Percentile 50th Percentile(Median) 75th Percentile

06/23/2008 19,883 $349,900 $499,900 $799,000

06/16/2008 17,631 $356,000 $519,900 $849,000

06/09/2008 17,714 $359,900 $519,900 $848,000

06/02/2008 17,857 $360,000 $524,500 $849,000

05/26/2008 17,883 $364,900 $525,000 $845,000

05/19/2008 17,956 $369,000 $525,000 $845,000

05/12/2008 17,865 $374,900 $529,000 $839,900

05/05/2008 17,863 $375,000 $529,900 $849,000

04/28/2008 17,825 $379,000 $530,000 $845,000

04/21/2008 17,822 $379,999 $535,000 $840,000



A 5% drop in the median price in one week. Doesn't seem right.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1214344725][quote author="awgee" date=1204089530]Escrow openings in Irvine are increasing.</blockquote>


April's decline as measured by CS in the LA MSA was 2.2%. The last time month-over-month declines were under 3% was October, i.e. the pace of declines slowed considerably in April.</blockquote>


Ipop has a valid point. Actually because the data is a smoothed 3 month average there might not have been ANY decline in April... we might just be seeing the carry-over from Feb and March.



But no one should mistake this for anything other than a seasonality. Median selling prices, median asking prices, and to a lesser extent the CS prices all tend to get a bump in the spring.
 
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