Calfornia Housing Price Forecast in 2009 by C.A.R.

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
( Note: The below forecast doesn't necessarily represent my view, but the Califronia Association of Realtors'. But if you are hungry for data, the below link will give you a good comprehensive snapshot of what has happened. In term of local housing data, you are welcome to inquire with me via e-mail. The million dollars question to you: Is Irvine included in MOST area of California?)



http://www.car.org/media/pdf/econpdf/10-15-08EXPOForecast-Final.pdf



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Home prices throughout most areas of California will post declines next year, while sales of existing homes will continue to rise in 2009, according to C.A.R.'s "2009 California Housing Market Forecast," released today during CALIFORNIA REALTOR? EXPO 2008 (www.realtorexpo.org), running through Thursday, Oct. 16 at the Long Beach Convention Center in Long Beach.



"The current uncertainty about the financial system and economy is likely to persist over the next several weeks, and could extend into next year," said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. "Our forecast assumes that the financial system will begin to show signs of stabilization late in 2008 and into early 2009."



The median home price in California will decline 6 percent to $358,000 in 2009 compared with a projected median of $381,000 this year, according to the forecast. Sales for 2009 are projected to increase 12.5 percent to 445,000 units, compared with 395,600 units (projected) in 2008.



"Sales in 2008 will be ahead of last year by 12 percent, with a further increase of 12.5 percent expected in 2009," said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "However, the next couple of quarters in late 2008 and early 2009 will be marked by seasonal decreases in activity, with a pickup expected by the second quarter of next year."



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This is a test:



<img src="http://www.animationartgallery.com/images/CJL/CJLRRACC.jpg" alt="" />



In the above picture, which character is the C.A.R.?
 
I read that too... I can't believe they think prices will only decline 6% next year based on the speculation that the bailout will actually do something.



Why don't these "predictions" ever compare home prices to incomes? Do they think incomes are going to double in 2009 (which probably still won't cover)?
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224205891]Why don't these "predictions" ever compare home prices to incomes?</blockquote>


Either:



<img src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_uuOo8x3WXWE/RyXs4QUz0DI/AAAAAAAAIJY/jhuTwb14hUc/s400/101.jpg" alt="" />



Or:



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1224205891]I read that too... I can't believe they think prices will only decline 6% next year based on the speculation that the bailout will actually do something.



Why don't these "predictions" ever compare home prices to incomes? Do they think incomes are going to double in 2009 (which probably still won't cover)?</blockquote>


I am amazed they predicted a decline at all. How do you convince a buyer to buy when even the realtors are saying it is going to be less expensive next year?



Typically, they will forcast a 4%-7% increase every year no matter what. It justifies their commissions to the buyer when they know they will have the 6% they need to get out.
 
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