AV glenwood pasadera, birch river

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dethman_IHB

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my wife and i have been looking for a new home for a few months in the south orange county area. we stumbled along glenwood in aliso viejo, and i read a few threads on it on this blog/forum from way back in 2008. i was wondering what people's thoughts were on the area a year later, now that a few members have lived there for a while, and the prices have remained stable for a bit?



pasadera's prices don't seem to have moved since last year, with the plan 1 at 710K or so and plan 3 at 740K. their incentives seem to be less though. i've also considered the next step up at birch river as i'd like to have a yard, but the golf course view homes are gone, and the ones left are at the bottom half of the development and they are still up at 870-915K or so. but none of the homes in glenwood including harbor station and vista vallarta seem to be selling too quickly at all.



we really like the community, and ppsq ft is less than irvine (where i rent now) but i am concerned about the exorbitantly high tax base (around 1.9%). even woodbury where i live isnt that high. in addition, i am concerned about depreciation of the new home and difficulty in selling the home if i have to, with so many yet to be released new home phases in both developments. i have 20% down, but don't feel like losing 100k in equity in 2 years.



what are the expert's thoughts? jumping in a good idea? or will this community only go down? how about the ones who live there now? still glad you made your purchase? anyone have thoughts on shea, or negotiating with them?



we are mainly considering this community, vs san joaquin hills in laguna niguel (more expensive, but no mello roos) and ladera ranch.



thanks for your help...
 
[quote author="dethman" date=1252859041]my wife and i have been looking for a new home for a few months in the south orange county area. we stumbled along glenwood in aliso viejo, and i read a few threads on it on this blog/forum from way back in 2008. i was wondering what people's thoughts were on the area a year later, now that a few members have lived there for a while, and the prices have remained stable for a bit?



pasadera's prices don't seem to have moved since last year, with the plan 1 at 710K or so and plan 3 at 740K. their incentives seem to be less though. i've also considered the next step up at birch river as i'd like to have a yard, but the golf course view homes are gone, and the ones left are at the bottom half of the development and they are still up at 870-915K or so. but none of the homes in glenwood including harbor station and vista vallarta seem to be selling too quickly at all.



we really like the community, and ppsq ft is less than irvine (where i rent now) but i am concerned about the exorbitantly high tax base (around 1.9%). even woodbury where i live isnt that high. in addition, i am concerned about depreciation of the new home and difficulty in selling the home if i have to, with so many yet to be released new home phases in both developments. i have 20% down, but don't feel like losing 100k in equity in 2 years.



what are the expert's thoughts? jumping in a good idea? or will this community only go down? how about the ones who live there now? still glad you made your purchase? anyone have thoughts on shea, or negotiating with them?



we are mainly considering this community, vs san joaquin hills in laguna niguel (more expensive, but no mello roos) and ladera ranch.



thanks for your help...</blockquote>
Buying a home is always a personal choice so it comes down whether there is a must for you guys to buy now or later. That being said, my personal opinion is that the downside risk to home prices is anywhere from 5-15% depending upon how drawn out the foreclosure wave will be (assuming the economic landscape doesn't worsen too much from today) and what other "fixes" the gov't will use to manipulate the real estate market. It is currently a crazy market right now in most parts of Orange County due to the lack of "real" supply of homes for sale so sitting back a bit for some more supply to come online may be a good idea (if you can stand to keep renting for a bit longer). The way to compare apples to apples when you are looking at buying a home with a high Mello Roos and/or HOA vs. a home with little or no Mello Roos and/or HOA is a rule of thumb for every $100 of Mello Roos per month would result in a capitalized value of about $17k (@6% every $100k borrowed will result in a payment of $100 per month for a 30 year loan). Also remember why Aliso and Laguna Niguel have lower prices per sf for homes versus Irvine so consider those things as well if you plan on living in the home for less than 5 years. Honestly, unless the economy goes to hell in a hand basket if you buy a home that you are target in a good neighborhood in most parts of Orange County the home should be worth as much or more than today in 7-10+ years. It sounds like you are a bit concerned about losing a good portion of your equity so maybe this my not be the right time to buy for you.
 
[quote author="dethman" date=1252859041]my wife and i have been looking for a new home for a few months in the south orange county area. we stumbled along glenwood in aliso viejo, and i read a few threads on it on this blog/forum from way back in 2008. i was wondering what people's thoughts were on the area a year later, now that a few members have lived there for a while, and the prices have remained stable for a bit?



pasadera's prices don't seem to have moved since last year, with the plan 1 at 710K or so and plan 3 at 740K. their incentives seem to be less though. i've also considered the next step up at birch river as i'd like to have a yard, but the golf course view homes are gone, and the ones left are at the bottom half of the development and they are still up at 870-915K or so. but none of the homes in glenwood including harbor station and vista vallarta seem to be selling too quickly at all.



we really like the community, and ppsq ft is less than irvine (where i rent now) but i am concerned about the exorbitantly high tax base (around 1.9%). even woodbury where i live isnt that high. in addition, i am concerned about depreciation of the new home and difficulty in selling the home if i have to, with so many yet to be released new home phases in both developments. i have 20% down, but don't feel like losing 100k in equity in 2 years.



what are the expert's thoughts? jumping in a good idea? or will this community only go down? how about the ones who live there now? still glad you made your purchase? anyone have thoughts on shea, or negotiating with them?



we are mainly considering this community, vs san joaquin hills in laguna niguel (more expensive, but no mello roos) and ladera ranch.



thanks for your help...</blockquote>


Dear Dethman,



I am very familiar with the this new community as I've visited this site several times in the past two years. I believe last year the plan 1 was going for $699,900 and plan 2 was selling for $729,900. The plan 2 seems to the the best model compared to plan #1 and 3. If you work in Irvine the fastest route i found (avoiding toll) was (right) on glenwood (right) on aliso creek (left) on el toro and take 73 all the way up to 5 or 405. Here are the reasons why I personally decided not to buy in this community.



1) The HOA was $180 last year allowing the club membership to be optional, but now is mandatory which brings the HOA fees up to $230. I wonder how some of the IHBers who bought in this community would feel when their HOAs are raised $50 after they have made a purchase.



2) I did not like the garage being in the back of the home with tiny lots (2700 square feet home built on a 3000 - 3200 square feet lots). The homes feel more like a luxury detached condo than an SFR, much like that of Manzantia in Portola Springs.



3) I don't know if you have little ones or not, but I have read and heard that the Capistrano Unified School District has some problems.



4) I don't know if you are Asian or not, but I personally could not live in an area where Diamond Plaza, Hmart, and Ranch 99 is not within 5 - 10 minutes drive away.



5) I think the housing recession we are seeing today is probably the worst that you and I will ever see in our life time. Aliso Viejo is not Irvine and will never be as desirable as Irvine in the future. If the year was 2005, I can see myself buying in AV because I am priced out of Irvine, but not when the market is going the other way around. You need to purchase the best home, in the best neighborhood, and the best lot your savings can afford. I personally do believe that Pasadera is over priced about 10% at current levels. If you put 20% down of $150,000 today, expect to lose atleast half of this down payment from 2011 - 2013. However, I do believe that mortgage rates and unemployment will rise further going into 2010. If you are employed today, you are certain to get this loan at low rates. My question to you is if unemployment reaches 15% in OC and mortgage rates are at 9% between 2011 - 2013 would you still be able to qualify for this loan. This is one of the risks you have to assess as you will not lose the $75,000 equity if you don't sell the Pasadera home in the down market.



If someone had a gun to my head and I had to choose now between to purchasing Pasadera in Glenwood or Los Arboles in Portola Springs. I would take Los Arboles in a heart beat. Hope this helps.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1252912209]





3) I don't know if you have little ones or not, but I have read and heard that the Capistrano Unified School District has some problems.



</blockquote>


As a former teacher from that district I would have to <strong>strongly </strong>disagree. CapoUSD is a fine district wth quality teachers and truly wonderful students. I would have no issues whatsoever with sending my children to school in that district.



(Now working in that district is a different question... :) )



The issues Panda is "hearing" about comes from the district's history of bad management on a District level. To make a long story short CAPO is going through some rough times, but so is every other school district in California so dont let it discourage you. I would encourage you to visit some websites if youre interested in schools and their reputations on a somewhat level playing field.



1. www.greatschools.net (school review & search engine)

2. http://capistranoinsider.typepad.com/beyond_the_blackboard/ (capistrano USD public blog about the school & district)





Aloha,



Drew







Drew
 
thanks for the replies. usc, if i buy, i would unlikely move within the next 5-10 years (bar a forced job relocation or such) so i wouldn't care so much about absolute equity, but more about the general uneasiness of 'losing' money in the home, or overpaying for one. i guess almost everyone i know is upside down on a home and no one seems to be too happy about it. i guess it's just a crummy feeling.



panda, i know that av will never be irvine, and will not have the central location nor the asian markets (i am asian, but not so much i HAVE to live next to a 99). you mentioned getting the best home in the best location, and 870K in av will get me a 3500sq ft house with 5 bedrooms, while 870k in irvine will get me 2400sq ft with no yard. i would love to buy in irvine, but it seems every house here has some shady deal behind it, like the ones on grape arbor or rockwren. and any 800k home of decent size in a good neighborhood has like 40 offers on it before i get a chance to see it. i'd love to know how to get more competitive in the irvine market, but i don't have 500k cash.



drew, i've heard good things about the av school district. the schools for the community are oak grove, av middle, and aliso niguel. not sure if these are awful schools but greatschools.net has them up pretty high.



yup, these are the dilemmas so many of us are facing today...
 
Dethman,



I know that several guys like TR_esq, waiting-to-move, BMP309 bought there last year. I would love to get some feedback from those guys who have already moved in. Believe me... I really really liked the layout of plan 2 of Pasadera and CK ("Irvine Lover") did too, but I would not pay $729,900 for that home. I have to agree with you that nice 2500 square feet SFRs in Irvine are extremely hard to come by right now as inventory is super tight. Most of the homes i see daily on redfin that fit that criteria are bunch of over-priced garbage. You just have to be patient. You should wait and atleast see what the new Woodbury SFRs offers. If homes in Irvine are still selling for $330 ppsf range by 2011 - 2013, I might as well surrender too and shop in AV and Ladera.
 
so I don't mind sharing with you all what I sent in an email reply... so here goes... after a year of living in a model 2 in Pasadera.

Some initial facts- we paid $725k- a ~ $15k premium to buy on Cabrillo Terrace instead of Golf, and closed in October, 2008. Our purchase price was set ithe prev April- when there was a short waiting list.



Added about $60k in options from the design center, and landscaped the side yard. I estimating we're down ~ $100k from all we've put in- BUT- we made a lateral move from a house in Lake Forest (which would also be down- prob at least as much). Also as long as we're employed- the house where we live is more important to us than it's short-term appreciation (or depreciation). This is the main point here- I don't think these are bargains. I'd go for a fixer uper and max square feet per dollar in an up and coming neighborhood for that. But- if you are like us- you want an modern, very good design- and you're willing to stay put 5 years- you're unlikely to lose and you'll love living in what you bought. In our last house, it just would never to practical to get 9' ceilings and a huge great room- you'd just start over. I'm a huge fan of the plan 2- especially- the large great room and kitchen in the heard of the house.





1. Mello Roos- for us it's $500/mo about (Pasadera). High- but I gather it's the price you have to pay for a new house in South County- and- it was REALLY fun buying a new house and getting it exactly the way we wanted. MR (or a portion of it) may be tax deductable- specifically- interest on bonds. Our CFDs are 30 year bonds- thus most of the payments are debt service- which is tax deductable.



2. I thought we'd like it here. We love it- more than we thought. Peaceful at night. New neighbors seem to become friends more than in an older neighborhood. We do something with a neighbor or group of them every weekend.



3. It's worth it for $40 a month to have a stylish bar and restaurant within walking distance. Friday night we just walked over, and as usually happens ran in to another couple and ended up in a table with 10 people around it- all neighbors- spontaneous. Plus I like sitting outside- overlooking the course- esp at night where there's live music.



4. The acquatic center costs $5 a time. ($3 for kids). Better if it were free- but I'd MUCH rather than than be stuck with maintenance fees lumped into our association. It's a first class facility (wish you could have a beer or wine in there through- esp- for an evening jacuzzi). The manditory Aliso Viejo Community Assoc charges too much- everyone in AV pays that. Our local association is ~ $90/mo. All dues together do sum to $230.



5. Shea builds a great product with very good materials. PAX plumbing - Milgard windows- they're very particular on no leaks from windows (and I've never heard of someone having one). Plus they fall all over themselves to make you happy at a 1 month, 5 month, and 11 month inspection.



6. We walked through our house every weekend as it was being built- and we emailed reminders "we ordered this and doesn't look like it's there..." That's a smart thing for everyone to do. One neighbor ordered insulation between floors and didn't say anything and- it was overlooked (he settled). We wanted Shea because a good friend has had one 10 years now- and they've come in post warranty on issues at no charge. Very impressive.

...



7. I've heard Pasadera now has a $35k limit on options through the design center. When our phase bought- the 6 houses spent $60k-$80k each. This is good and bad- keeps your cost down- but you need to be careful on what to buy from them vs what you add later.



8. Most people like staying off Golf (busy), and for Pasadera like the front of the house to face East (such that the master is in the shade afternoon hours).



9. It's a buyers market. Shea says they won't do this anymore- but if I were buying I'd say the deal is contingent on a dual zone HVAC- which they charged us $2k extra for. I'm a big fan of this- but you have to argue to get it now.



Hope this helps some of you...
 
Waiting-2-move,



Wow.. thanks for sharing your experience and testimonial. I really like your #2



2. I thought we'd like it here. We love it- more than we thought. Peaceful at night. New neighbors seem to become friends more than in an older neighborhood. We do something with a neighbor or group of them every weekend.



Did your HOA first start out at $180 when you first bought in 2008, and then go up $230?

Do you know much about the elementary school that Pasadera feeds into?



CK, I don't know about you, but I am bringing Pasadera back into my radar list.
 
sure Panda we've emailed before...



I overstated dues a tad- here's our exact breakdown



Aliso Viejo Community Assoc, $213/quarter, or $71/month

Glenwood (local assoc) $85/mo

social membership to club $40/mo (but again- we'd pay this anyway if it were optional)



total $196/mo



The portion of fees that went up $50/mo was the AVCA. They use a formula based on the average house value in a zone to determine the assessment- and when the original big dollar Birch River sales (originally $1.4MM to $1.6MM with options) got included in their formula, the AVCA assessment went up $50/mo. Pasadera is in that "zone". Previously, only a handful of Pasadera sales were in the zone. This might be coming down as the mix of houses sold changes. Pasadera's prices are down due to the options cap. Not sure if Vista Vallarta is in the zone however.



Sorry- no kids or info on the Schools Panda.
 
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