Are there areas in Orange County that are more immune?

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ShutterBug_IHB

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I?ve been carefully watching the market in the area where my husband and I want to settle (Lake Park area of Huntington Beach). The prices have come down considerably, but no where near the free fall I?ve seen in other markets (Irvine and other parts of inland Orange County). My husband and are watching and waiting to buy a house... We figure that we will be ready in about 18-24 months (I am finishing my second masters). I grew up in that area and it is/was a nice place to grow up.



I?m wondering if some real estate areas are more unique. I?m concerned that since areas by the ocean are more sought after, the prices will not be coming down as fast or as low as other Orange County areas because they are more sought after..... many of our friends seem to think that the prices will only come down another 10% or so.

I guess I?m wondering if waiting 18-20 months will really make a difference. I don?t want to have to pay a similar price at a higher interest rate because sat for too long.
 
The major cross streets for Lake Park are Adams and Main(92648)... we are looking at the streets off Main (Pine, Park, Lake, etc). It's a nice area with tree lined streets and a mix of homes.



Yes, there are many short sales and foreclosures despite what a few particular real estate agents have told me. I know of one particular property which sold in 2006 for $905K and went on the market in January for $875K... it's currently in short sale for $799K.
 
<p>ShutterBug,</p>

<p>That area is, to the extent that there can be such a thing in Huntington Beach, 'old money'. It will be one of the last to see price reductions because there weren't a huge amount of sales during the boom, so the prices never got sky high. The people that own homes in that area have owned them for a generation and may plan to die there, considering the area. You best bet is finding one of the Huntington Classics (built in the early 90's near City Hall) in distress or one of the 3-story row houses that got so popular down there.</p>

<p>Although, if you were feeling generous and civic-minded, you could buy the '87 Victorian replica house on 11th and replace it with something that actually fits the neighborhood.</p>

<p> </p>
 
I have to admit the area code 92624 has been pretty imune. It is small and mostly it is in the beachfront property but I have not seen many disasters there. Median fluxes like a maddog because relativly few properties change hands in that price range but if you count out the condos its median actually has risen a bit
 
We are looking to buy in either 92648 (closer to the beach) or 92646 (more house for the price). Both those zips hold their value better than 92647 or parts of 92649. The prices in 92646 have come down considerably in the past year, but are still very inflated compared to the rest of OC.

We are watching and waiting... I just hope interest rates don't rise too much in the next 18-24 months.



There are several single story homes mid-century houses in Lake Park that are in our price range... not all of them are McMansions (although that seems to be an unfortunate trend in the downtown area- loses its charm).



Nude: I know what you mean about that Victorian... I love the location, but that house is just odd.
 
There are no areas that will avoid this calamity. It is only a matter of when they implode. Buying into a grossly overpriced beach area code before prices collapse there will not make you happy.
 
I have no idea why 92648 or 92649 would be holding their values. They are both getting pummeled by foreclosures. <a href="http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=65433977">Like this one for $1.7mil</a>. And, there are a bunch more scheduled for the next month. Those spec homes built around downtown are getting killed. There are bunch in a five block circumference around 10th street all the way down to PCH that are in trouble.
 
In my index, looking at condos and small SFRs in Irvine, Lake Forest, MV, Aliso, etc., they are all dropping. I've seen $100K+ drops on some of these condos! So, no, I do not believe any place is "immune". But there are some places that are holding up better than, say, Santa Ana. Eventually I agree that all will have large drops.
 
<p>I agree that all homes will go down in value accordingly. Between Irvine and Huntington Beach, people will choose one over the based on price - the subsitution effect. Thus prices in one area will affect prices in the other. That is why people moved to Irvine in the first place. People bought homes in Irvine 10 years ago because they were cheaper than homes in Huntington Beach. But now that their prices are pretty comparable, people will choose to buy in the city with the better deals.</p>

<p>I don't think prices will stabilize until you can get a decent condo for 350K or a decent house for 450K.</p>

<p>Maybe for Irvine or Huntington, it might be 400K for a condo and 500K for a house.</p>
 
I agree that homes will lose value, however, I just wonder if the prices will go down as much and as fast as places like Irvine. Right now, despite all the short sales and foreclosures, most homes seem to keep the inflated price point. And there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason.



Example: Two houses practically next door to each other on Leilani Drive (92646)-



House A: $1.4 million (huh?)http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1587450



House B: $800Khttp://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1590900



I just don't get it...
 
Those are both listing prices, or wishing prices. So, to "hold" value they have to "sell". The $1.4mil owner has been freebasing the Kool-Aid, and the $800k owner needs to put the glass of Kool-Aid down. There have been 5 SFRs, that I know of, in 92646 that have gone back to the bank, and the highest NTS was $675k and one was only $475k.
 
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