About time...Builder incentives on the way out?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program

optimusprime_IHB

New member
<p><strong>Alex Barron - Agency Trading: </strong>But, basically what your saying is rather than, let’s say, as an example instead of selling at $250,000 home with $50,000 incentive, all you doing is doing that your are selling it for $200,000. Is that basically the idea?</p>

<p><strong>Timothy Eller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: </strong>That’s the idea. That’s basically… that… it’s back, its back to the way it used to be.</p>




<p>BYE BYE high comps :)</p>




<p><a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/31/builder-incentives-on-the-way-out/">http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/01/31/builder-incentives-on-the-way-out/</a></p>

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awgee



Interesting you bring this up. On the short sale my partner and I have an offer on the bank did an apprasial and used recent builder comps. We are trying to get the incentive numbers since the bank is using the raw recorded numbers and we think incentives were up to 10%. Our offer was of course at least 10% below the banks asking, much as NO_VAS stated on the other thread.



The current sales numbers do not reflect the true net sales price including options and buydowns. It is very hard to quantify these.



See, some of us really do represent the clients needs. LOL



Short/REO sales are a challenge even for professionals.



My guess is that in the future banks will bundle 10 to 20 homes ( or even more) together and sell directly to REITs or investment groups since dealing with homes on an indivual level is too time consuming for the banks. It would be much like the RTC did after the S&L collapse. Money will be made by someone but probably not by too many unsophisticated buyers.



I think we saw a preview of this movie in the late '80s.



Regards
 
<p><em>We've been moving to transparent pricing, what that means, as we do a lot of work around finding the right selling price for our neighborhood and then adjust the base price to that level. By doing these buyers know what the real price is, the price is not up-scaled with give-away and gimmicks. We can then attract the right buyers that, those that can qualify for mortgage and can afford the payment.</em></p>

<p><em>Solid, well founded prices also instill buyer confidence. The positive of this strategy is that it allows us to sell to a backlog more predictably. The short-term down side though, is it means adjusting our existing backlogs to those new price realities.</em></p>

<p><em>Further our unsold inventory is down 10% sequentially. We are emphasizing pre-sales and as our cancellation rates moderate, I'm confident we'll continue to reduce our unsold inventory. Our cancellation rate at 33% for the quarter is down sequentially and year-over-year. <strong>We are focused on selling homes to people who can afford them and can qualify for mortgage. We've moved quickly to reduce our prices to the new mortgage realities</strong>. And CTX Mortgage ensures we've well qualified buyers, so we can close sold home.</em></p>

<p><em>Slide 7, provides the details around the home building operations for the third quarter. We closed 6,657 homes in the quarter, 20% lower than last year. The average sales price declined 11% to $259,000. This is a 5% reduction sequentially. The <strong>average selling price will continue to decline</strong> on our closed homes in the near term reflecting our aggressive response to the tighter credit standards. <strong>The dramatic price adjustments the industry has experienced is a healthy step towards addressing the industry's affordability challenge</strong>. Unfortunately, it comes at a cost which is evidence in gross margin reductions.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Carl Reichardt - Wachovia Securities</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Hi, Tim, can you explain to me specifically how you expect the transparent pricing move to impact margins over the longer run? And then I have a second question with cash flow?</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Timothy Eller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Well, the way we view it, this is a necessary step in returning to something normal. Now, we have yet to see prices stabilize to call anything normal and we have yet to see inventories stabilize. But, we need to get back to pricing that is reflective of value. It's also important to do that for financing reasons, because right now, what people can qualify for is generally a Fannie Mae, a Freddie Mac or increasingly only FHA. So, it's important to have a price that reflects the values that attract the customers that can qualify for those mortgages.</em></p>

<p><em>Once we understand the pricing and where the pricing needs to be relative to our customer ability to... to qualify for a mortgage, then we can really focus on the cost aspects having a right product, with the right cost structure and the right set of subcontractors and suppliers to provide that house. So, what we've seen is just as I said in previous calls, just a resetting of values from Alt-A which could have been as high as 500,000, 600,000 into Fannie Mae and as we have seen underwriting standards tighten and down payments increase because these are now declining price markets according to appraisals increasingly move into FHA.</em></p>

<p><em>If you recall Carl, back in our history if not that long ago, about half of our business was FHA business and we are actually just moving back to where we once were. Doing all of this, is really a precursor to establishing a predictable set of prices and a predictable set of costs and a predictable set of margins.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Stephen East - Pali Capital</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Cathy on the pricing that you mentioned, moving forward it will continue to decline. How should we look at... I guess how you all factored in land... factored in debt pricing in your land charges this quarter or if you did and also on operating margins sort of looking at least qualitatively where those margins go?</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Cathy R. Smith - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Yes. The... as we always do with our impairment methodology, we look at where we think price will go over the life of that asset or life of that neighborhood. So our impairments contemplate well what visibility or what insight or what judgments we think. And we do use some objective third party data to help us understand where the economics of the market, individual markets are going. So to that extent we should have contemplated everything that we expect in the way of additional price declines by market in our impairment analysis. And so that should be there. And then... best way to get to profitability is to adjust our cost structure to those new price realities and we are doing that as fast as we possibly can.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Stephen East - Pali Capital</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Okay. And then Tim, just one another question for you on the transparent pricing, are you seeing particularly I am thinking about in California and you all mentioned Vegas etcetera. Are you all seeing competitors follow suit or what's the environment and what's the competitive landscape? How they are responding to that?</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Timothy Eller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Yes. More and more, that as the reality of what we need to do from a mortgage standpoint and a qualification standpoint, I think prices adjust. Now we have the advantage in many cases of having A locations, so that gives us a little bit of pricing power there. But we've tended to be... again very thoughtful about how we adjust our prices relative to the mortgage realities.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Couple of questions on the transparent pricing strategy. First one it implies... I am thinking about it in all the different neighborhoods it implies that you either expect or you have some type of pricing leverage with the customers. What are you seeing in the current conditions around the country that make all of you believe that you can push forward with this strategy and stick firm on pricing?</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Timothy Eller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>If you could just think about the process that evolves through a cycle. What I would attribute it to is just a more mature point in the cycle. Historically, we price houses by and large was very, very little incentive. When the market changes dramatically as it has been, builders tend to provide incentives in order to keep the backlog priced at a higher level. What's happening now is we're having to renegotiate everything because of the loan product changes that have occurred in the mortgage market. So we've just accelerated our point of arrival if you will in terms of where we need to be in this cycle to... how business should really be run in this industry. And doing that it was buyer's confidence that the price to paying is a fair value and we can demonstrate that it is in the marketplace.</em></p>

<p><em>It also allows us to pre-sell homes because people understand that we're not offering excessive... incentives or inventory in order to provide per sales. So it is gives us some more stable foundation in order... in which to manage the business and also very clearly demonstrates to our sub-contractors and suppliers and ultimately land sellers what the realties of the market are in terms of house prices.</em></p>
 
<p><em><strong>Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Okay.And then following on with that, if you look at the inventory at the end of the third quarter, what percentage of that inventory would fit into both transparent pricing model you've discussed, and then also just push I think to get more into conforming in FHA qualifying products. What percentage of your inventory now would fit into that?</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Timothy Eller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>As I mentioned that in my comments 45% of that backlog is FHA qualified. The majority of the rest of it is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac qualified which be a $417,000 or less mortgage. Some of it, small part of that really is jumbos or some kind of alterative mortgage of which there is some but very few of that remaining. So in terms of transparent pricing, it's... we are moving from a... into the transparent pricing model to transition that place. So in the backlog could be in many cases some over neighborhoods or some out of that still haven't seen it tied to it which is why you saw a discount as high as they were this quarter as well. So it's a two or three quarter transition that needs to take place I am kind of middle of it.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Matthew G. Moyer - Head of Investor Relations</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Jay this is Matt Moyer, we had last quarter 90% of our neighborhoods had at least one floor plan, price below $417. So that's probably going to improve overtime.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Randy Raseman - Durham Assets Management</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Four questions, one just sort of high level from where you guys sit right now, I mean how big of a price reduction going forward do you think it will take to bring equilibrium back to market?</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Timothy Eller - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>There is two aspects that you have to think about, one is new home prices and the other is existing home prices. So, new home prices from our standpoint for Centex, we are really an equilibrium with our buyers right now, in terms of their ability to qualify for mortgage that's what we look at can they qualify from mortgage. The existing home prices generally take, several number of years to correct, what we are seeing now is actually a more rapid correction in the existing home prices, primarily for the same reasons that buyers need the ability to qualify and we have limitations in terms of mortgage amounts out there for Fennie Mae, Freddie Mac $417,000 and FHA, that varies from 200,000 to 350,000 depending on accounting.</em></p>

<p><em>Now, there is legislation, in the words that may change that we will see if it works its way through and it's successful but right now it looks like there it only be temporary relief on those mortgage limits.</em></p>

<p><em><strong>Cathy R. Smith - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer</strong></em></p>

<p><em>Realistically we... essentially taken the price reduction that are going be necessary and why I say that is back to that commentary around transparent pricing is, is we do a lot of work around what's the right price for that neighborhood and so that means looking at like 15 year trend. Looking at the incomes of the buyers, looking at the mortgage product that are available and kind of in coup.</em></p>

<p>I have listened to their past conference calls, and this is the 5th call, where Tim Eller has said, they will price the homes for the area and for what people can qualify for.</p>

Translation: We will slash the prices, so people can afford the mortgage, with their real incomes, and that mortgage will be either FHA or Fannie Mae, because that is what people can afford.





Well... one builder gets it, now lets see if the rest follow.
 
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