A modest real estate BULL case

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garfangle_IHB

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<p>The thread of finding a someone to take the mantle of being an Irvine real estate bull suprised me by its lengthy commentary. While I cannot in good conscious say it is a good time to buy now, I will put forth a few reasons why it I am bullish on the long-term prospects of Irvine. First, the real estate buildup brought in many semi-luxury to luxury builders like California Pacific Homes to create communities that based strictly on its demographic profile Irvine shouldn't have been on their radar. Moreover, communities like Woodbury were provided with many valuable anemities like recreational facilities and tailored parks that in the absence of the bubble the builders would have had a hard time justifying.</p>

<p>The housing boom gave Irvine a chance to replenish its housing stock with newer homes since the last big buildup in the 1970s and early 1980s. Irvine is well positioned to retain and attract new businesses and skilled workers because of all the infrastructure, modern office buildings, and retail stores that have been built over the past decade. If I were an entrepreneur looking to start a business in California in 2010 (note the date), Irvine would be one of my top choices.</p>

<p>In the interim, between now and 2010, if you are a resident and can ride it out--hopefully you're renting like IR--do so, but if you plan to move to California within a few years, Irvine couldn't be a better place to be.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>N.B., CK I'm not an Irvine hater, just like IR a realist, who hopes to enter the market when all these homes of year 2000+ vintage can be had at a much lower price.</p>
 
Interesting comments. I am not surprised that CalPac would choose to build in Irvine, considering it is a wholly owned subsidiary of TIC. I wouldn't consider them a luxury builder either, considering they build plenty of "low end" product (see, e.g., Vientos at Portola Springs).
 
<p>Agreed, I like Irvine too. Valuation and quality are two different things. </p>

<p>An Irvine homeowner might be upset at loss of home value, but at least they're in a nice place to live during the underwater wait.</p>

<p>Unlike someone who bought in a transitional area at the height of the boom, and may have to be stuck there as the transition starts running backwards instead of forwards...</p>
 
<p><em>"Unlike someone who bought in a transitional area at the height of the boom, and may have to be stuck there as the transition starts running backwards instead of forwards..."</em></p>

<p>I hadn't thought about the "un-gentrification" issue....</p>
 
<em>"Irvine is well positioned to retain and attract new businesses and skilled workers because of all the infrastructure, modern office buildings, and retail stores that have been built over the past decade."</em>





If house prices remain high, it is a serious problem for business. When you have to pay someone $150K a year to do a $80K job, a business is better off locating elsewhere.
 
I will add that I know of people who have positions going unfilled because they can't find talent, and it's really hurting the business. If you need a mid-level person, but they want $110K, and your managers are getting $110K, then you either have to bump everyone up, or wait until you find a barely qualified person willing to work for the amount offered. I know a lot of people who moved out of state to be able to buy a home, and many were in that mid-level talent sector. Without those folks, you either get burn out, from people doing more work than they can, or stagnation because businesses don't have the ability to grow.
 
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