graphrix_IHB
New member
<a href="http://www.calmis.ca.gov/htmlfile/county/orange.htm">The EDD December numbers, and historical numbers can be found here</a>.
First, I need to get my gripe out of the way about <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/money/percent-county-orange-1962259-year-edd">the OCR, and their misleading headline/first paragraph of the article</a>.
<em>More data showing that Orange County is losing jobs emerged Friday, as the state's Employment Development Department estimated that local employers shed 6,600 nonfarm jobs in 2007.
</em>Is it just me, or does this suggest, that in 2007 OC lost 6600 non-farm jobs? Well, that isn't the case. This is the year over year number from December. Granted, this is ugly, and the last time a December had YOY declines was in 2001 with a loss of 5500 jobs. Before that it was 1993 that had a loss of 3300 jobs, 92 a loss of 6400 jobs, and the worst 91 had a loss of 41,400 jobs. But, the EDD annual numbers are an average, and the unrevised estimate is a gain of 5200 non-farm jobs for 2007, or 0.034%. In fact, 2001 actually showed a gain of 24,800 jobs on an annual basis, and it wasn't until 2002 that the annual job losses showed up. Bad reporting there, really bad reporting. I expect misleading facts from Wretched Gretchen, but come on OCR.
Second, anyone who touts the fact that healthcare jobs have increased as a good sign, needs to be blog slapped. (Hat tip lendingmaestro for that line). This sector has increased every single year since 1990, not once, ever has it decreased or has ever been flat. Stating this... is as obvious as stating that the grass grows. So, unless someone finds a cure for cancer, or boob jobs in OC are deemed a stupid superficial waste of money, then this sector will continue to grow. Education gets lumped into this sector as well, and YOY it was down, and the average grew by 300 jobs, or 1.4%. And, this sector did not decrease in the 90s, so don't even get me started with it.
Third, the professional and business service sector is down 0.1% YOY, and up 0.5% from last year's average. You know, this sector was supposed to grow, and save OC from a recession.
<em>
Greg Edwards, chief financial officer of Rancho Mission Viejo, said membership in the Orange County chapter of Financial Executives International, the group that was surveyed, tends to skew toward growing sectors of the local economy, such as technology and professional services, which could account for the more optimistic view.</em>
Geez... would someone give him the numbers before they take a quote. Hey, in that sector it includes computer systems design and related services, which is down by 6.4% YOY, and down 1% from last year's average. Now, I know tech people who have great jobs, and can't get enough people. But, the trickle down effect is at work here. I also know many tech people who serviced the RE industry. All the fancy chop mortgage shops needed networked computers, and fancy VoIP for the live leads. Now, they are no longer needed for every paper jam. Have you noticed the homebuilder websites have gone downhill? I have, because the builder I worked for, laid off the person who kept up the site, and it sucks now.
An interesting fact that has been over-looked, is the civilian labor force decreasing for the first time since 95 on a YOY basis. The EDD counts <em>"Civilian labor force data are by place of residence; include self-employed individuals, unpaid family workers, household domestic workers, & workers on strike." </em>So, the self-employed are accounted for, and anyone who is involved in the writers strike. To put that in perspective, if the labor force grew at a rate of 1.2%, as it should, as population grows, and as it has in the past, and those people are somehow not being accounted for, the unemployment rate would be 4.6%.
On a final note, leisure and hospitality was 0% YOY. This was another sector that would save OC from a recession, with all those crazy foreigners coming to Disneyland, great weather, and crappy dollar. Full-service restaurants are down 1.2% YOY, this is a sign of local troubles, and it has been flat since 2005.
I swear, I hate being doom and gloom, but these are the numbers, and they are ugly. Since I am a numbers guy, I welcome anyone who can prove the numbers I pulled from the EDD are not as bad as I say, with the numbers to prove it, then please do. I would really like some positive news.
First, I need to get my gripe out of the way about <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/money/percent-county-orange-1962259-year-edd">the OCR, and their misleading headline/first paragraph of the article</a>.
<em>More data showing that Orange County is losing jobs emerged Friday, as the state's Employment Development Department estimated that local employers shed 6,600 nonfarm jobs in 2007.
</em>Is it just me, or does this suggest, that in 2007 OC lost 6600 non-farm jobs? Well, that isn't the case. This is the year over year number from December. Granted, this is ugly, and the last time a December had YOY declines was in 2001 with a loss of 5500 jobs. Before that it was 1993 that had a loss of 3300 jobs, 92 a loss of 6400 jobs, and the worst 91 had a loss of 41,400 jobs. But, the EDD annual numbers are an average, and the unrevised estimate is a gain of 5200 non-farm jobs for 2007, or 0.034%. In fact, 2001 actually showed a gain of 24,800 jobs on an annual basis, and it wasn't until 2002 that the annual job losses showed up. Bad reporting there, really bad reporting. I expect misleading facts from Wretched Gretchen, but come on OCR.
Second, anyone who touts the fact that healthcare jobs have increased as a good sign, needs to be blog slapped. (Hat tip lendingmaestro for that line). This sector has increased every single year since 1990, not once, ever has it decreased or has ever been flat. Stating this... is as obvious as stating that the grass grows. So, unless someone finds a cure for cancer, or boob jobs in OC are deemed a stupid superficial waste of money, then this sector will continue to grow. Education gets lumped into this sector as well, and YOY it was down, and the average grew by 300 jobs, or 1.4%. And, this sector did not decrease in the 90s, so don't even get me started with it.
Third, the professional and business service sector is down 0.1% YOY, and up 0.5% from last year's average. You know, this sector was supposed to grow, and save OC from a recession.
<em>
Greg Edwards, chief financial officer of Rancho Mission Viejo, said membership in the Orange County chapter of Financial Executives International, the group that was surveyed, tends to skew toward growing sectors of the local economy, such as technology and professional services, which could account for the more optimistic view.</em>
Geez... would someone give him the numbers before they take a quote. Hey, in that sector it includes computer systems design and related services, which is down by 6.4% YOY, and down 1% from last year's average. Now, I know tech people who have great jobs, and can't get enough people. But, the trickle down effect is at work here. I also know many tech people who serviced the RE industry. All the fancy chop mortgage shops needed networked computers, and fancy VoIP for the live leads. Now, they are no longer needed for every paper jam. Have you noticed the homebuilder websites have gone downhill? I have, because the builder I worked for, laid off the person who kept up the site, and it sucks now.
An interesting fact that has been over-looked, is the civilian labor force decreasing for the first time since 95 on a YOY basis. The EDD counts <em>"Civilian labor force data are by place of residence; include self-employed individuals, unpaid family workers, household domestic workers, & workers on strike." </em>So, the self-employed are accounted for, and anyone who is involved in the writers strike. To put that in perspective, if the labor force grew at a rate of 1.2%, as it should, as population grows, and as it has in the past, and those people are somehow not being accounted for, the unemployment rate would be 4.6%.
On a final note, leisure and hospitality was 0% YOY. This was another sector that would save OC from a recession, with all those crazy foreigners coming to Disneyland, great weather, and crappy dollar. Full-service restaurants are down 1.2% YOY, this is a sign of local troubles, and it has been flat since 2005.
I swear, I hate being doom and gloom, but these are the numbers, and they are ugly. Since I am a numbers guy, I welcome anyone who can prove the numbers I pulled from the EDD are not as bad as I say, with the numbers to prove it, then please do. I would really like some positive news.