9 months later...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
So I went back and read this thread:
http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=414.0

That was the one about how there were so many people on the interest list for the 2010 New Home Collection but some posters said it was spin and marketing fluff and that many of the people on that list won't qual or buy so it didn't matter.

Well... 9 months later, and Woodbury is almost sold out. Most of the SFRs are done and 2 are opening up a 2nd tract. This is remarkable considering TIC thought it would take 1 to 2 years to sell through. I'm very surprised myself because I would have thought by the fall/winter season, the priority registration list would be meaningless and you could just walk in and buy. The problem is, there is nothing to buy anymore.

Too bad graph and BK aren't here any more. I would like to see them defend their predictions. Instead, BK is over at OCR saying how the priority registration list is a genius marketing tool that allows TIC to raise their prices based on the finances people qualify for. What happened to the list just being a farce?

While I'm a big Irvine fan, I find it amazing how many people want to purchase and buy here. I still think the prices for the product are too high and maybe because I already own in Irvine... I have the leisure to say so... but still... I don't see any other city move through so much product at these prices... especially in this economy with high unemployment and strict credit guidelines (I guess FCBs have the advantage here).

It does seem there is some slowing down (at least in the resales) but it makes me wonder what type of prices will we be seeing at Stonegate, Portola, Orchard Hills and Laguna Crossing.

EDIT: Typos.
 
I was never a huge housing bear, but I was surprised to see the houses in Woodbury sell so quickly.  I don't like the feel of that neighborhood at all because it everything seems too close together and the house/lot size ratio is ridiculous.  However, I recently visited the new Riverbend development in Orange and it made Woodbury seem like utopia in comparison.  Most new developments seem to be equally bad, if not worse and since there really aren't too many choices for new construction, I can see why the New Home Collection was so successful.
 
Congratulations to TIC--great PR job in getting most of the 2010 collection sold. Going forward 12 months, TIC will be challenged by the lagging resale market. Further buildup of resale inventory, a smaller pool of qualified buyers, high unemployment, and general economic uncertainty will take a toll on prices.

TIC will need to employ perfect kungfu PR, convincing sheeple how much value their product has. This translates into ever smaller lots, higher density attached products, and alley/motor courts.

Of course sheeple will not bother to calculate in the higher MR and HOA fees when comparing to resale. Instead their eyes will be glazed over from all the free ice cream and the honor of being #100 on the wait list.  ;)
 
I'm no supporter of TIC. In fact I was and I am  a big housing bear eventhough i bought in the new homes. One thing that can't be denied
about the new homes is that TIC priced it slightly lower than the comparable resales that existed last year creating the tremendous
interest and sales even after the mello roos and HOA. Also one didn't have to deal with uncertainity of short sale and banks (1st loan and 2nd loan
holding agencies) etc etc. I'm sure they will adjust the price points of their subsequest releases to match with the resale inventory and pricing
that exists then.


iacrenter said:
Congratulations to TIC--great PR job in getting most of the 2010 collection sold. Going forward 12 months, TIC will be challenged by the lagging resale market. Further buildup of resale inventory, a smaller pool of qualified buyers, high unemployment, and general economic uncertainty will take a toll on prices.

TIC will need to employ perfect kungfu PR, convincing sheeple how much value their product has. This translates into ever smaller lots, higher density attached products, and alley/motor courts.

Of course sheeple will not bother to calculate in the higher MR and HOA fees when comparing to resale. Instead their eyes will be glazed over from all the free ice cream and the honor of being #100 on the wait list.  ;)
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waitin4ever said:
I'm no supporter of TIC. In fact I was and I am  a big housing bear eventhough i bought in the new homes. One thing that can't be denied
about the new homes is that TIC priced it slightly lower than the comparable resales that existed last year creating the tremendous
interest and sales even after the mello roos and HOA. Also one didn't have to deal with uncertainity of short sale and banks (1st loan and 2nd loan
holding agencies) etc etc. I'm sure they will adjust the price points of their subsequest releases to match with the resale inventory and pricing
that exists then.


iacrenter said:
Congratulations to TIC--great PR job in getting most of the 2010 collection sold. Going forward 12 months, TIC will be challenged by the lagging resale market. Further buildup of resale inventory, a smaller pool of qualified buyers, high unemployment, and general economic uncertainty will take a toll on prices.

TIC will need to employ perfect kungfu PR, convincing sheeple how much value their product has. This translates into ever smaller lots, higher density attached products, and alley/motor courts.

Of course sheeple will not bother to calculate in the higher MR and HOA fees when comparing to resale. Instead their eyes will be glazed over from all the free ice cream and the honor of being #100 on the wait list.  ;)
Click to expand...
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Actually TIC pissed off a lot of existing WB homeowners with the 2010 Collection pricing. Imagine if you were one of the lucky ones to buy at the peak and now you are underwater. Then TIC comes in and starts selling homes for less than what you paid. They certainly have hurt existing WB homeowners who were trying to sell. You can imagine a similar scenario moving forward into this double dip housing slump--Stonegate undercutting recently built WE and WB.
 
It wasn't a huge number in the relative scheme of things right?  Helps when you can make them look like a bargain compared to the sellers still sitting on too-high prices nearby. 

Out of curiosity, what were the comparables against similar (obviously not VERY similar since they'd be a lot older) homes that don't have Mello Roos taxes?  Or was there any such thing at all?  MR adds such a huge amount to the price of a home, and sure they were "cheaper" but they weren't exactly CHEAP all things considered.  But you know, when you only have a few things avaialable you can get a higher price and there are plenty of people who feel very strongly about new construction AND Irvine.

 
Talyssa said:
It wasn't a huge number in the relative scheme of things right?  Helps when you can make them look like a bargain compared to the sellers still sitting on too-high prices nearby. 

Out of curiosity, what were the comparables against similar (obviously not VERY similar since they'd be a lot older) homes that don't have Mello Roos taxes?  Or was there any such thing at all?  MR adds such a huge amount to the price of a home, and sure they were "cheaper" but they weren't exactly CHEAP all things considered.  But you know, when you only have a few things avaialable you can get a higher price and there are plenty of people who feel very strongly about new construction AND Irvine.
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The 2010 collection was cheaper than existing homes sales in Woodbury.  This means that the Mello Roos and HOA were IDENTICAL.  For example, I bid $890K for a 2300 sq ft  4 year Woodbury house, but got out bid.  The house sold in one week.  I ended up getting 2630 sq ft Sonoma for $910K after all the upgrades I would want.  Of course I need to do landscaping and window coverings.  But, I am getting a larger house and my house has more upgrades.  BTW, the lot size is almost identical.
 
iacrenter said:
Actually TIC pissed off a lot of existing WB homeowners with the 2010 Collection pricing. Imagine if you were one of the lucky ones to buy at the peak and now you are underwater. Then TIC comes in and starts selling homes for less than what you paid. They certainly have hurt existing WB homeowners who were trying to sell. You can imagine a similar scenario moving forward into this double dip housing slump--Stonegate undercutting recently built WE and WB.
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Was this more for the attached/condo products?

AFAIK, the older WB SFRs are still selling for more $ per sf than the Trilogy. As I2I said... same size SFRs from prior years are very close to 2010HC prices.
 
Irvine2Irvine said:
The 2010 collection was cheaper than existing homes sales in Woodbury.  This means that the Mello Roos and HOA were IDENTICAL.  For example, I bid $890K for a 2300 sq ft  4 year Woodbury house, but got out bid.  The house sold in one week.  I ended up getting 2630 sq ft Sonoma for $910K after all the upgrades I would want.  Of course I need to do landscaping and window coverings.  But, I am getting a larger house and my house has more upgrades.  BTW, the lot size is almost identical.
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What about existing homes outside of woodbury that were similar sizes/lot sizes?  Are there any older irvine homes that were anywhere in the general realm of comparable?
 
I did Redfin'd and came up with these (search criteria: 4/2.75, > 2250sft, 1990+, no short sales):

$818khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/67-Bamboo-92620/home/5931333
Northwood II but next to Jeffrey

$820khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/19-National-Pl-92602/home/4791803
> 7000sft lot
$850khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/3-Freedom-Pl-92602/home/4791775
> 5000sft lot
Both West Irvine so that means IUSD level TUSD (hehe) no HOA (I like the one on National but it's not 3CWG).

$879khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/15-Carpenteria-92602/home/5771641
Northpark (also TUSD I believe)

These are fairly new listings and some have been price reduced but it shows you that brand new does hold some premium.
 
I think there were several factors that contributed to TIC successfully selling their new homes.  Obviously they did a great job with their marketing and PR.  They also used great timing by seeing that there was a lack of resale inventory and strong buyer demand as indicated by increasing existing home sales.  The prices of their new homes were somewhat lower than prices of comparable resale homes (that gap has now narrowed to almost zero now).  Then add to the fact that they had a tailwind of not only the federal tax credit, but also the California tax credit and you had a great environment for selling new homes in Irvine.  Going forward I don't think that TIC will be as successful selling the next batch of homes because they'll be coming up again some strong headwinds...the end of the sugar rush from the tax credits, higher resale inventory, decreasing home sales of existing homes, and a stagnant employment/economic backdrop. 
 
While I think much of what you said is true... many of the Trilogy didn't qualify for the Fed credit -- and at that price point, the Cali credit wasn't very much.

I do hope that makes it harder for them to sell so they drop pricing but then they would not build at all. What I want them is to open models in Laguna Crossing so they are pot-committed... and then for the economy to trap them so I can beat their two pair with my trey... heh.

(With my luck... I'll go all in and they'll get a boat on the river)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
While I think much of what you said is true... many of the Trilogy didn't qualify for the Fed credit -- and at that price point, the Cali credit wasn't very much.

I do hope that makes it harder for them to sell so they drop pricing but then they would not build at all. What I want them is to open models in Laguna Crossing so they are pot-committed... and then for the economy to trap them so I can beat their two pair with my trey... heh.

(With my luck... I'll go all in and they'll get a boat on the river)
Click to expand...
I think you are downplaying the true effect of the tax credits a bit.  Even though they were low as a percentage of the sales price, people did all they could to get fair share of free money from the government.  You can see the side effect of coming off the sugar rush from the tax credits now, they pulled a lot more demand than you think.  TIC will have to pull out all the bells and whistles to even come close to the same success they had with the Woodbury homes.  The tell that you should be looking for that will give away their hand will be them offering buyer's agent co-ops and/or upgrade incentives.  If the economy does not begin to improve before the end of the year, even Irvine will go into a buyer's market.  The next 3-4 months will give us an idea of Irvine real estate is going.
 
No, what I'm saying is that many of the Trilogy homes couldn't even use the Fed credits.

And odds are... many of the FCBs didn't even bother applying for the Cali ones.

The lower priced homes... sure... but the fact that Carmel and Sonoma sold out is quite amazing and didn't have a lot to do with $8-10k cash.

If the economy doesn't tank even more... I will guarantee that an area like LC will sell quickly.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
No, what I'm saying is that many of the Trilogy homes couldn't even use the Fed credits.

And odds are... many of the FCBs didn't even bother applying for the Cali ones.

The lower priced homes... sure... but the fact that Carmel and Sonoma sold out is quite amazing and didn't have a lot to do with $8-10k cash.

If the economy doesn't tank even more... I will guarantee that an area like LC will sell quickly.
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I bought Sonoma and Cali credit had ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with my decision to buy Sonoma.  It was nice, but was an after thought.  I will definitely take the handout, but still think it is a complete waste of tax money, especially for cash strapped Calif.
I do agree that the lowere priced house may have benefited more.  But, it would be foolish to buy a $600K home based on $10K rebate.
 
Irvine2Irvine said:
irvinehomeowner said:
No, what I'm saying is that many of the Trilogy homes couldn't even use the Fed credits.

And odds are... many of the FCBs didn't even bother applying for the Cali ones.

The lower priced homes... sure... but the fact that Carmel and Sonoma sold out is quite amazing and didn't have a lot to do with $8-10k cash.

If the economy doesn't tank even more... I will guarantee that an area like LC will sell quickly.
Click to expand...

I bought Sonoma and Cali credit had ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with my decision to buy Sonoma.  It was nice, but was an after thought.  I will definitely take the handout, but still think it is a complete waste of tax money, especially for cash strapped Calif.
I do agree that the lowere priced house may have benefited more.  But, it would be foolish to buy a $600K home based on $10K rebate.
Click to expand...

I agree.  I knew I didn't qualify for the federal credit when I was buying the house.  I actually thought it was funny that carmel, sonoma and even monticeto advertised the credit - one would think that to afford these homes you probably wouldn't qualify for the credit, except the FCBs,  The state credit was a pleasant suprise.
 
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