59 Reunion in Quail Hill

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I owned a condo in this condo complex. I had the largest floorplan (3bed/2bath) and sold it for about $339/sf. It's a nice complex and below $300/sf it's not that bad of a value. That being said, it might drop to $250-$275/sf when the dust settles. Here are the agent-to-agent comments:



"Short sale . Subject to lender's approval. Any reduction in commission will be split 50/50; listing and selling agent. Back on market.We do have short sale approval on previous buyer."



Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I sounds like this might be an approval short sale if they had an approval on the previous buyer. Let me know if you have any other questions.
 
usctrojanman29 What is your opinion about that neighborhood being in such close proximity to the freeway and with traffic noise? could you hear any of your neighbors through the shared walls? How do you think the eventual appreciation of these units compare to those that are higher up on the hillside of Quail Hill? Thanks for your input!
 
[quote author="darrenito1234" date=1244380426]http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/59-Reunion-92603/home/5953644



I've been looking at this condo in Quail Hill for a while now and am wondering why it hasn't sold yet. At $296 per sq. ft. in Quail Hill I think it is a good value. I'm wondering what your thoughts are about this condo? Is it a good buy?



Thanks!</blockquote>


I am curious as to what your valuation method is.



What makes you believe this is a good value?



It is because it is less expensive than similar properties?



Is it because it is selling for less than its 2004 price?



Is it because it is less than $300/SF?
 
There are a few factors in which we (my wife and I) consider this unit to be a good value.



1. The pricing below the 2004 price and being under $300 square ft. makes this property very attractive.

2. We are very particular about what areas in Irvine we prefer to live in ie. me being a biker and having a commute to the office within a preferred distance.

3. The strength of the school district

4. Personal preference living in QH

5. The open floor plan of this condo (except for the stairway configuration which is a bit funky)



My main question is why this condo has not sold yet and has been on the market so long. It's just curious to see due to all the activity we've seen on properties lately with multiple bids etc.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1244439518]maybe because $300/sf is twice what it would cost to rent a similar house/condo?</blockquote>


I really do have problems with some of the posts on the forum. There are a lot of sarcasm implying people who wants to buy a house now in Irvine is an idiot. Again, many people buy houses based on multiple factors, the price of the house is important, but people are willing to pay extras if they feel it is comfortable, good location, floorplan, schools, convenience to shopping, etc. Owing is different from renting. It provides a sense of security/stability.



I think if anyone who don't want to wait any longer, who are able to afford the mortgage comfortably, or find a resonable price house currently and able to accept the prices will continue to drop for at least a year or 2 should not hesitate to consider buying.



There are many people here come up with predictions and say the bottom will happen in 2-3 years and prices will drop another 20, 30%. I always take things with a grain of salt. I am sure there are many people on this forum have made predictions that are incorrect. The only thing I would say is prices will continue to drop in Irvine.
 
[quote author="hunter" date=1244441749][quote author="freedomCM" date=1244439518]maybe because $300/sf is twice what it would cost to rent a similar house/condo?</blockquote>


I really do have problems with some of the posts on the forum. There are a lot of sarcasm implying people who wants to buy a house now in Irvine is an idiot. Again, many people buy houses based on multiple factors, the price of the house is important, but people are willing to pay extras if they feel it is comfortable, good location, floorplan, schools, convenience to shopping, etc. Owing is different from renting. It provides a sense of security/stability.



I think if anyone who don't want to wait any longer, who are able to afford the mortgage comfortably, or find a resonable price house currently and able to accept the prices will continue to drop for at least a year or 2 should not hesitate to consider buying.



There are many people here come up with predictions and say the bottom will happen in 2-3 years and prices will drop another 20, 30%. I always take things with a grain of salt. I am sure there are many people on this forum have made predictions that are incorrect. The only thing I would say is prices will continue to drop in Irvine.</blockquote>


The primary predictions made by the IHB and the community is that prices will drop to cashflow levels. We have been consistent with that message since the bubble popped in 2006. Since January 2, 2007 when this board was started, we have been consistently correct, and many people have come through here, told us we did not know what we are talking about, and then proceeded to buy homes. All of those people are underwater. Those are facts, not opinions.



We may be wrong about future price declines in Irvine. We have certainly been correct about falling prices, and prices in many markets are now approaching cashflow levels where they will bottom. Irvine is not there yet. If you choose to believe that Irvine is "different," that is your choice. Many people have tried to convince us that Irvine is different. Most have already bought homes.



People buying in Irvine right now are not idiots. People have many reasons for buying that are not financial. I will say that people who are buying right now because they believe prices are "fair" or "cheap" have not looked at historic valuation relationships such as price-to-rent or price-to-income. People who are buying for financial reasons <em>are </em>making a mistake, and they will come to regret it just like everyone else who has come through here in the last 2 1/2 years. It is what it is.



Nobody that comes in here can say they were not told.
 
[quote author="darrenito1234" date=1244436010]There are a few factors in which we (my wife and I) consider this unit to be a good value.



1. The pricing below the 2004 price and being under $300 square ft. makes this property very attractive.

2. We are very particular about what areas in Irvine we prefer to live in ie. me being a biker and having a commute to the office within a preferred distance.

3. The strength of the school district

4. Personal preference living in QH

5. The open floor plan of this condo (except for the stairway configuration which is a bit funky)



My main question is why this condo has not sold yet and has been on the market so long. It's just curious to see due to all the activity we've seen on properties lately with multiple bids etc.</blockquote>


Of the five points you listed, only #1 pertains to value. The remaining reasons are preferences--which are valid reasons to buy, but they say nothing about a property's value.



$300/SF is below what many properties in Quail Hill are currently trading for. That does make this a reasonable deal relative to current comparable sales. I don't know why this hasn't sold yet, but price is probably not the reason.



I asked you a leading question about value because I am going to tell you what I tell everyone who comes through here; prices are still too high relative to historic values, and they are likely to continue to fall.



Just because something looks reasonable today, doesn't make it a good value based on long-term trends. Many people thought these properties were a good value at $400/SF back when comps were at $450/SF. Many people thought these properties were a good value at $350/SF back when comps were at $400/SF. ow, you think this property is a good value at $300/SF now that comps are at $350/SF.



I think you get my point.



There are plenty of links on the main blog describing valuation of properties, and there is a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0615226930?ie=UTF8&tag=thegrehoubub-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0615226930">book on the subject</a> I can recommend....
 
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