[quote author="GoIllini" date=1243989050][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1243977809]University Park will fall below $200/SF. It will be the low-price leader in Irvine.</blockquote>
It's still got a long way to go to reach that price. Yes, these are older homes, but doesn't that usually mean that many homes have been owned for a long time and are less likely to be distressed? I don't see the area being the "low-price leader," even though I would like to buy here, and would welcome it.
I recently noted a University Park 3/2 attached for sale at 1 Cashew. It went off the market in less than 2 weeks, and IR2's data shows it in escrow in May at $343/ sq. ft. I rent an IDENTICAL home for $2,400/month. Both homes are in similar shape -- dated, but in good condition. Mine is two blocks further from the freeway, so less noise. When the home was listed for sale, I used the IHB rent vs own calculator and I'm convinced I've got a bargain. (Don't tell my landlord!) My rent pencils out to roughly a $250/sq. ft. purchase price.</blockquote>
Even at 4.5% interest rates, University Park is going to have difficulty staying above $250/SF. As interest rates rise, it will fall that much farther.
I have nothing against University Park. I live there now.