potsticker
Active member
CalBears96 said:
I passed by Costco at the District and the gas line also looked a bit shorter. Not spilling out onto the road like usual.
COVID-19 Retail Openings and Closures
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
I passed by Costco at the District and the gas line also looked a bit shorter. Not spilling out onto the road like usual.
I noticed that too on Friday mid day when I went to go get In N Out.
As long as it stays like that until I get my Taycan, I'll be happy.
It's going to get much much worse unless we make peace with Vlad. He holds all the cards. Get ready for $15/gal and your electricity bill doubling/tripling:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut
Not gonna happen. You actually think we're going to see $15/gal with recession on the way?
Agreed, it?s called demand destruction.
All of us have made our fortunes in a 40 year declining interest rate environment. None of us (except maybe R2D) have experienced the economic dislocation of the early 80s. We are going to see major pain - show me a geopolitical thesis where fighting inflation and Vlad does not end up with pain across all asset classes and employment.
Most definately hotter in the summer but my electric bill with A/C on day and night even when I go out (which keeps me comfy but is on much less than it's not and I have no ceiling fans) is under $100.
Two of my kids are here. Were it not for the kids, I would probably have kept driving east to relocate. Happy to be here but it's not for everyone, thank God. Hoping housing cools off to next to nothing so I can get someone to put in a pool for me. Backlog is crazy.
Well off person who has his primary residence in Iowa bought a place in AZ right at the bottom after the housing bust as a snowbird home told me I'd be nuts not to buy a place in AZ at those prices. I complained it was too hot (even though my two kids already were in AZ by then) and he said.......... buy a home in AZ for the winter and another for the summer in Flagstaff then. I didn't. He also bought land for dirt cheap and sold it to a major builder.
I really did quite well in the OC but I knew I had to sell into that strength because where I lived would have trouble in a buyers market. So glad to have that mania arrive. LOL!
If I was going to buy in AZ right now, I would try to buy a new spec home from one of the builders. It takes then nearly a year to build one (maybe less if supply chain improves) and try to back out all upgrades with a cash offer. I'm picky though. I want certain lots if I'm going to keep the place for myself. The one I'm moving to sits in front of a small lake. There are only 8 houses in the entire development that are there. It's a pool sized lot and in a downturn I know I've got a lot that is going to do better than most every other lot in the area.
That article is full of shit. Russia produces 10M barrels a day. The rest of the world produces 85M barrels a day. You think that Russia cutting back 5M barrels a day, which cuts down total production from 95M barrels to 90M barrels a day will cause the oil price to quadruple (going from $100 to $380)? Show me facts that would support this.
We've seen how non-linear and volatile energy pricing is. Taking 5M barrels/day off the market has a ripple effect. A JPM analyst allowed to provide this info to Bloomberg has a detailed model behind it - Bloomberg isn't some hack website. Maybe open your eyes and mind a little - that approach has worked well for me. Dogma is self defeating.
Nara Thai Kitchen will be taking over the old La Sirena location.
https://www.narathaikitchen.com
https://www.shopirvinecompany.com/centers/irvine/orchard-hills-shopping-center/nara-thai-kitchen
Interesting. I don't see any other locations. Usually, Irvine Company doesn't like new restaurants in their shopping centers and prefers businesses that have an established reputation.
I passed by Costco at the District and the gas line also looked a bit shorter. Not spilling out onto the road like usual.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
best_potsticker_in_town said:
I noticed that too on Friday mid day when I went to go get In N Out.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
aquabliss said:
As long as it stays like that until I get my Taycan, I'll be happy.
Hugo Township
Active member
Premium is down to 5.99/gal at Sam's Club in Fountain Valley. Went there for some business shopping (item not found at Costco) and didn't get gas, but saw a small line there about 2-3 cars deep.
HMart said:
It's going to get much much worse unless we make peace with Vlad. He holds all the cards. Get ready for $15/gal and your electricity bill doubling/tripling:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut
CalBears96
Well-known member
OCtoSV said:
Not gonna happen. You actually think we're going to see $15/gal with recession on the way?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
CalBears96 said:
Agreed, it?s called demand destruction.
You guys are looking at current geopolitical conditions through the view that you WANT to see, but not what the facts support. Did you even read the article to see what Vlad taking 5M barrels/day off the market would do? Vlad is playing a very long game and woke up today with Biden in disarray and Boris out, exactly the turmoil he was looking to sow backed up by his control of the energy and food sectors. And Powell will be forced to raise the FF rate to 9% to quash inflation.USCTrojanCPA said:
All of us have made our fortunes in a 40 year declining interest rate environment. None of us (except maybe R2D) have experienced the economic dislocation of the early 80s. We are going to see major pain - show me a geopolitical thesis where fighting inflation and Vlad does not end up with pain across all asset classes and employment.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
But will Putin do that? Anyone's guess.
Will Powell raise rates like that? Gas here has dropped 64 cents from 5.49 to 4.85, (over 11.5%). Cali not so much but u get ripped off on everything. The rest of us r getting a good drop, and the rise in gas tax was not that much for ya all. When is the last time gas dropped before a major holiday? Look at the price of oil and gas co stocks. I'm in no hurry to fill up my tank.
Newsom did suspend the diesel tax. That alone is going to help shipping costs as all the truckers loading up in Cali have to pay that to be on their way.
London Broil is under $2 a pound here. When is the last time we've seen a price like that, even in AZ? Years. Meat guy told me they have a ton of it. Waiting for buck a dozen eggs (in AZ, we might see it even lower) and low priced chicken again to stock up on those. Look at wheat futures. Completely gave up the entire gain since Ukraine and do we have more supply? No, just lower prices.
And then there is houses. USC can tell us if traffic is up with rates down. Seasonally it's a slowdown in most years because it's too late to get thru escrow and the kids in school, but I don't really see prices going up. Builders don't like to lower prices, but the fact of the matter is their supply costs are going down. Lumber, copper, etc. They can maintain their current base prices and reduce their prices thru negotiation of upgrades and still make money. Next home developments magically have a lower price per sq foot to start with.
When I look at the breakdown in bond yields and oil, it makes me think somehow inflation is slain.
Will Powell raise rates like that? Gas here has dropped 64 cents from 5.49 to 4.85, (over 11.5%). Cali not so much but u get ripped off on everything. The rest of us r getting a good drop, and the rise in gas tax was not that much for ya all. When is the last time gas dropped before a major holiday? Look at the price of oil and gas co stocks. I'm in no hurry to fill up my tank.
Newsom did suspend the diesel tax. That alone is going to help shipping costs as all the truckers loading up in Cali have to pay that to be on their way.
London Broil is under $2 a pound here. When is the last time we've seen a price like that, even in AZ? Years. Meat guy told me they have a ton of it. Waiting for buck a dozen eggs (in AZ, we might see it even lower) and low priced chicken again to stock up on those. Look at wheat futures. Completely gave up the entire gain since Ukraine and do we have more supply? No, just lower prices.
And then there is houses. USC can tell us if traffic is up with rates down. Seasonally it's a slowdown in most years because it's too late to get thru escrow and the kids in school, but I don't really see prices going up. Builders don't like to lower prices, but the fact of the matter is their supply costs are going down. Lumber, copper, etc. They can maintain their current base prices and reduce their prices thru negotiation of upgrades and still make money. Next home developments magically have a lower price per sq foot to start with.
When I look at the breakdown in bond yields and oil, it makes me think somehow inflation is slain.
The Motor Court Company
Well-known member
I am looking at the weather in Arizona and Texas periodically, even though COL is cheaper but their daily low temperature is the same or higher than daily high of Irvine and where I am...with 20 to 30 degree difference I am not sure it is worth it....
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
The California Court Company said:
Most definately hotter in the summer but my electric bill with A/C on day and night even when I go out (which keeps me comfy but is on much less than it's not and I have no ceiling fans) is under $100.
Two of my kids are here. Were it not for the kids, I would probably have kept driving east to relocate. Happy to be here but it's not for everyone, thank God. Hoping housing cools off to next to nothing so I can get someone to put in a pool for me. Backlog is crazy.
The Motor Court Company
Well-known member
I am just looking at my retirement plan?maybe living at two places, Arizona for fall and winter and either PNW or Maine/NH for summer/spring.
Ready2Downsize said:
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
The California Court Company said:
Well off person who has his primary residence in Iowa bought a place in AZ right at the bottom after the housing bust as a snowbird home told me I'd be nuts not to buy a place in AZ at those prices. I complained it was too hot (even though my two kids already were in AZ by then) and he said.......... buy a home in AZ for the winter and another for the summer in Flagstaff then. I didn't. He also bought land for dirt cheap and sold it to a major builder.
I really did quite well in the OC but I knew I had to sell into that strength because where I lived would have trouble in a buyers market. So glad to have that mania arrive. LOL!
If I was going to buy in AZ right now, I would try to buy a new spec home from one of the builders. It takes then nearly a year to build one (maybe less if supply chain improves) and try to back out all upgrades with a cash offer. I'm picky though. I want certain lots if I'm going to keep the place for myself. The one I'm moving to sits in front of a small lake. There are only 8 houses in the entire development that are there. It's a pool sized lot and in a downturn I know I've got a lot that is going to do better than most every other lot in the area.
CalBears96
Well-known member
OCtoSV said:
That article is full of shit. Russia produces 10M barrels a day. The rest of the world produces 85M barrels a day. You think that Russia cutting back 5M barrels a day, which cuts down total production from 95M barrels to 90M barrels a day will cause the oil price to quadruple (going from $100 to $380)? Show me facts that would support this.
CalBears96 said:
We've seen how non-linear and volatile energy pricing is. Taking 5M barrels/day off the market has a ripple effect. A JPM analyst allowed to provide this info to Bloomberg has a detailed model behind it - Bloomberg isn't some hack website. Maybe open your eyes and mind a little - that approach has worked well for me. Dogma is self defeating.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
It's not really ripple effect... it's greed/fear.
iacrenter
Well-known member
aquabliss said:
Nara Thai Kitchen will be taking over the old La Sirena location.
https://www.narathaikitchen.com
https://www.shopirvinecompany.com/centers/irvine/orchard-hills-shopping-center/nara-thai-kitchen
potsticker
Active member
iacrenter said:
Interesting. I don't see any other locations. Usually, Irvine Company doesn't like new restaurants in their shopping centers and prefers businesses that have an established reputation.