Can you predict OC real estate prices?

ocpredicts_IHB

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<strong>Have an opinion on where our housing prices are headed in Orange County? Of course you do. If you're a bear, think you know more than the bulls? If you're a bull, think you know more than the bears? Again, of course you do. Here's your chance to prove it.</strong>



I’ve set up a predictions market so members of this blog can demonstrate their predictive prowess. Predictions markets work like stock exchanges but rather than buying shares in a company, they buy shares of prediction in the future. In the case of this market, people can buy shares of predictions about housing prices in Orange County.



There are two kinds of contracts: “above” and “below” corresponding to your opinion about the direction of housing prices relative to last month. If you think that housing prices in Orange County are heading up, then buy the "above" contracts. If you think they are dropping, buy the "below" contracts.



Participants will earn "currency" for buying the contracts that accurately predict the future and lose "currency" for those that don't. The currency is called "RE Credibility" or "RE CRED" for short. Having RE CRED will give you bragging rights around the blogs and from time to time maybe earn you a Starbuck's gift card. We'll also maintain a leader board to show who is good at prognosticating the future and who is not.



Participating is easy and completely free. Start by copying and pasting this link into your browser:



http://www.crowdiq.com/opex/marketinfodisplay.do?marketid=128



First, sign up on the CrowdIQ site to get an account (also free). Then join the crowd in our market called “Residential Real Estate.” For having done so, you will receive 100,000 RE CRED points to trade in the market.



Then you will probably want to bid on the initial offering (IPO) of the contract you’d like to buy. They will only be open for five days and as with the stock market, those that participate in IPO’s tend get better returns that those who don’t. Once the IPO is completed, shares will be distributed to those that bid in the IPO and trading will begin. Then, as news comes out, you can buy, sell and short shares to better reflect your then current view of the market, maximizing your RE CRED return and bragging rights around the blog.



Have fun!
 
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